This year, The Seeders’ Cup will follow the Game of the Year Edition of the Rules in which the four week Pick Three competition will simulate a football game. Each week will be one quarter of a Playoff-Caliber Game and the Pick Threes will be regarded as offensive drives for Field Goals or Touchdowns. Review the revised point system here.
The Entrants
The Analysts have selected their Home Teams to start the third annual Seeders’ Cup. The entrants are:
Slate of Analysts and Home Teams for Seeders Cup III (2016-17)
Slate of Games
Slate of Games for the Seeders Cup III (2016-17)
The slate of games for The Seeders’ Cup III (GOTY Playoff-Caliber Game) will test the playoff-worthiness of the Analysts as the Home Teams and their opponents compete for playoff seeding.
We have three head-to-head clashes between the Analysts’ Home Teams in the first three quarters of the GOTY Playoff -Caliber Game : division rivals Raiders v. Chiefs (in the first quarter), division rivals Rams v. Seahawks (in the second quarter), and a clash of current division leaders for home field advantage, Lions v. Cowboys (in Quarter 3).
There also appear to be a few un-owned teams currently competing for playoff seeds: Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and Giants in Q1; Giants, Colts, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Titans in Q2; Packers, Colts, Steelers, and Broncos in Q3; and Eagles, Packers, and Broncos in Q4. These un-owned teams, or others as the season plays out, may be worth “seed” scores to the Analysts.
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are a half dozen or more featured games, including two Thursday night games, two Sunday night games of the week (subject change), four Saturday games, and two Monday night games.
Picks
Reminder: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win a trifecta or to earn the “extra point” on a touchdown.
Two Correct Picks scores a Field Goal worth 3 points. Three Correct Points scores a Touchdown worth 6 points and extra points on the conversion: 1-point for a Home Team win and 2-points for a Home Team win in the Correct Pick Three.
Additional points are scored for picking teams that earn spots in the playoffs during the week. These points are regarded as special teams or defensive scores and are earned if the Analyst scores a Field Goal (2 Correct Picks) or Touchdown (3 Correct Picks) in the same wek. They are not awarded if the Analyst has only 1 Correct Pick during the week as if the offense failed to score after a great special teams play or defensive takeaway.
Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due Thursday, December 8, before TNF.
The Analysts have selected their Home Teams to start the third annual Fibonacci Stakes. The entrants are:
Slate of Analysts and Home Teams for the Fibonacci Stakes III (2016-17)
Slate of Games
Slate of Games for the Fibonacci Stakes III (2016-17)
The slate of games for the Fibonacci Stake III presents incalculable challenges this year as many playoff caliber teams will test the Home Teams of the Analysts.
In addition, we have three head-to-head clashes between the Analysts’ Home Teams: Dolphins v. Chargers (Leg 2), Dolphins v. Rams (Leg 3), and a clash of current playoff contenders to end the season, Cowboys v. Vikings (Leg 5).
Three teams go on bye weeks during the month, limiting the opportunities to select these teams two weeks in a row: Bears (Leg 1), Raiders (Leg 2), and Chargers (Leg 3). There are fewer than 8 games to pick from in all but one Leg (4).
There also appear to be a few un-owned teams that compete two weeks in a row: Jets (1 and 2), Texans (3 and 4), 49ers (4 and 5), Buccaneers (4 and 5), and Panthers (4 and 5). These un-owned teams may be selected two weeks in a row for the Fibonacci bonus trifecta points.
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are a half dozen or so featured games, including four Sunday night games of the week (subject change), two Thanksgiving day games, one more Thursday night game, and two Monday night games.
Picks
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win a trifecta. *Bonus* trifecta points are earned for picking the same team two weeks in a row. See the Fibonacci Stakes Rules for more information.
Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, November 5.
The Analysts have selected their Home Teams to start the third annual Player Haters Preakness. The entrants are:
Slate of Analysts and Home Teams for the Player Haters Preakness III
Slate of Games
Slate of Games for the Player Haters Preakness III
The slate of games for the Player Haters Preakness III may prove to be a brutal test of Analyst’s acumen. With only 2 head-to-head competitions this month (first tiebreaker), most Analysts will have to win the Run of the Black-Eyed Analysts with wits alone.
In Leg 1, Wise Orangutan travels to face Big Tuna. Leg 4 pits the young stallions, B-Reezy and Atwork, against one another. layer Hater Bonus Points may not be earned from the two head-to-head Analyst match-ups.
Leg 3 may prove to be the difference as 5 of 7 Analysts’ Home Teams go on the road against notable challengers (one team on a bye week). In Leg 4, two teams go on bye weeks and limit the available choices to FIVE games total — a photo finish in the making!
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are a handful of featured games: two Thursday nights, two Sunday nights, and one Monday games.
In total, five Home Teams enjoy a bye week during the Preakness.
Picks
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win a trifecta. *Bonus* trifecta points are earned for picking against other Analysts’ Home Teams in a winning trifecta. See the Preakness Rules for more.
Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, October 8.
The Analysts have selected their Home Teams to start the new season and the entrants for the PC-Fecta Derby are:
Slate of Analysts and Home Teams for the PC-Fecta Derby III
Slate of Games
PC-Fecta Derby III | Slate of Games
The slate of games for the PC-Fecta Derby included 4 head-to-head competitions this month (first tiebreaker)! Kal Krome’s Seahawks face The Bookie’s Dolphins (week 1) and The Strategist’s Rams (week 2). Newcomer, Vikings challenge Minds Blank’s Packers (week 2) and Little Tuna’s Panthers (week 3).
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are a several featured games: one Thursday night, three Sunday night, and three Monday games.
The Packers are on a Bye in week 4 – Minds Blank will not be able to earn PC-Fecta *bonus* points that week.
Picks
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win, but *bonus* trifecta points are won only if Analysts include the Home Team in a winning trifecta. See the Derby Rules for more.
Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Wednesday, September 7.
Courtesy of CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Bowl Which Shall Not Be Named for Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts must pick from the two games and may NOT pick against their own Home Team. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
The above game is the completion of the Championship Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl. A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 point in the Championship Round.
The two world professional football teams playing The Bowl Which Shall Not Be Named are the #1 seeds in the playoff tournament. The only points to be earned by Analysts without a Home Team in The Unmentionable Bowl can only earn points from a correct trifecta.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship Game may still collect 3 Reverse PC Fecta points for highest offensive score and lowest defensive score allowed.
No Player Hater, Seeder Redux, or Playoff Victory points are awarded for the outcome of the Championship Game.
Maximum Points Possible
One. Only one. Only if you picked the two teams in the Conference Championship Round.
Eliminated Analysts
Everyone except The Bookie has been eliminated from contention in Super Trifecta Bowl II. Pick with pride, pick with honor, pick to start the new season well.
Contesting Analysts – Scenarios
The Bookie wins with 19 points if the Broncos score less than 49 points or allow the Panthers to score 15 or more points.
The Bookie wins with 16 points if the Broncos score 50 or more points and allow the Panthers to score 14 or less points.
Championship Game Picks
You are going to do it. No matter if it does not matter. You are always as smart as the last game you picked.
Required Picks in the Championship Game to Be a Good Sport in Super Trifecta Bowl II
Courtesy of CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts must pick from the two games and may NOT pick against their own Home Team. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 point in the Championship Round.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship Round will collect 3 Playoff Victory points if their Home Team wins. (NOTE: Analysts with Home Team remaining in the race MUST pick their Home Team in this leg).
The Analysts who correctly pick Home Teams in the Championship Round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Championship Round, there are no Player Hater points available because the last un-sponsored team has been eliminated from the professional football league playoffs.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Cardinals (1 point) and Patriots (1 point).
Maximum Points Possible
The highest-seeded teams (1 or 2) have progressed to the Championship Round and four Analysts have had their steeds eliminated. The maximum points possible are determined by the situation of the Analysts after the Divisional Round.
In order to win, The Bookie’s strong showing in the first two legs forces all other Analysts to pick against the Panthers: if the Panthers win the conference championships this week, The Bookie wins Super Trifecta Bowl II with 16+ points.
With these conditions in mind, the most points Analysts may earn are:
Team eliminated: 1-3 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the Analyst picks a #2 seed (Patriots or Cardinals) to win the world football professional championship, 2 Seeder Redux points are possible based on opponents. The maximum Seeder Redux points may be earned in one of three ways:
1. Pick Patriots and Cardinals to win Conference games.
2. Pick Patriots and Panthers to win this week, then the Patriots to beat the Panthers in the world football championship game.
3. Pick Cardinals and Broncos to win this week, then the Cardinals to beat the Broncos in the world football championship game.
Analysts with #2 Seeds: 4-9 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the 2 seed wins, the Analyst earns 3 Playoff Victory points and 1 Seeder Redux point. The Analyst also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. Both Analysts must pick against the Panthers in the conference championship to win.
Analysts with #1 Seeds: 3-8 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the 1 seed wins, the Analyst earns 3 Playoff Victory points. The Analyst also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. Big Tuna must pick against the Panthers to block The Bookie and earn 1 Seeder Redux point with a Cardinal win. The Bookie may pick the Patriots for a Seeder Redux point, but is not required in order to win.
Eliminated Analysts
With the top-seeded teams owned by Analysts, the outcome of Super Trifecta Bowl II once again favors the Analysts with Home Teams in contention or Analysts who accumulated points in the early rounds.
Since only three points may be earned by Analysts whose Home Teams lost in earlier rounds, Kal Krome (7) and B-Reezy (4) are eliminated.
Little Tuna, with the #2 seed Patriots, may earn 9 more points riding her Home Team to another world professional football championship – but it will not be enough for her to overtake The Bookie. The Bookie has 13 points and 3 base trifecta points (first tiebreaker). The most Little Tuna will earn in the Championship Round is 13 points and 1 base trifecta point.
Therefore, Little Tuna has been eliminated from Super Trifecta Bowl II and a new champion will be crowned in 2016. Nonetheless, she is in prime position to play the spoiler in the final leg and show or place to end the race.
Contesting Analysts – Scenarios
In order of strength, the the Analysts in contention for Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Bookie (13 points): The Bookie must pick the Panthers per the rules and if the Panthers win, she earns a minimum of 3 Playoff Victory points – enough to beat all other Analysts. She can reach up to 21 points total by earning Reverse PC Fecta points, correctly picking the Panthers’ opponent, and correctly picking the winner of the world professional football championship game in February.
Minds Blank (12 points): If the Panthers lose, the mindless one will earn 1 Seeder Redux point if she picks the Cardinals. If she correctly picks the winner of Broncos-Patriots AND correctly picks the world professional football championship game she earns at least 14 points to force a determination by tiebreakers. Blank may earn up to 15 points provided she picks one of the #2 seeds to become the champion.
Wise Orangutan (10 points): If the Panthers lose, the wise one earns 3 Playoff Victory points and becomes eligible for Reverse PC-Fecta points. If he earns at least two Reverse PC-Fecta points, he forces a tie with Minds Blank at the worst. If he wins all three Reverse PC Fecta points, he wins. Alternatively, he may earn two more points from a winning trifecta in which the Cardinals win the world professional football championship.
The Strategist (11 points): If the Panthers lose, the strategic one will earn 1 Seeder Redux point if she picks the Cardinals. If she correctly picks the winner of Broncos-Patriots AND correctly picks the world professional football championship game, she may earn up to 14 points provided she picks a #2 seed to become the champion. She must pick a different championship game or different champion than Minds Blank and Wise Orangutan in order to avoid the Box Out – see “Teams Eliminated” options above.
Big Tuna (8 points): If the Panthers lose, the fishy one earns 3 Playoff Victory points with a Broncos victory and 1 Seeder Redux (for picking against the Panthers). He also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If he earns at least one Reverse PC-Fecta points, he reaches 13 points to tie The Bookie and forces tiebreakers in the final week. If he earns all three Reverse PC-Fecta points, he reaches 15 points this week and will win Super Trifecta Bowl II with 16 points if the Broncos win the world professional football championship game.
Championship Picks
By rule, the Analysts must select their Home Teams in the Divisional Round. In addition, only The Bookie can build a trifecta with the Panthers to win Super Trifecta Bowl II. All other Analysts must pick against the Panthers.
The required Picks to win are:
Required Picks to win Super Trifecta Bowl II in the Championship Round
Courtesy of CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for the Division Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Slate of Games for the Divisional Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts may pick from any of the four games, provided they do not pick against their own Home Team. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the eight teams to win.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional Round.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Divisional Round earn 2 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams in the Divisional Round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Divisional Round, 2 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking an un-owned team.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Steelers (5 points), Chiefs (3 point), Seahawks (5 points), and Packers (3 point).
Strategery
This week we have three head-to-head match ups and only one featuring an un-owned vs. a Home Team.
Keep in mind that Analysts do not have to pick their Home Teams in order to earn the Playoff Victory points (2). The benefit to picking the Home Team is that the Analyst is then eligible for the 3 competitive Reverse PC-Fecta points. Home Team wins thus earn 2 to 5 Super Trifecta points regardless of seeding.
All of the games feature the possibility to earn 3 or 5 Seeder Redux points: SEA (5), PIT (5), GB (3) and KC (3). If an Analyst’s Home Team has been eliminated or an Analyst does not believe his or her Home Team will win, the Analyst may want to Pick teams that yield Seeder Redux points instead.
The Steelers are the only Player Hater eligible Pick remaining and will yield 2 Player Hater points plus 5 Seeder Redux points with a win (7 total). Big Tuna’s Bronocs host the Steelers, so he is the only Analyst who may not pick this upset.
Picking one of the higher-seeded Home Teams will not yield Super Trifecta points to the Analysts who do not own team, but a winning trifecta is worth 2 points whereas an incorrect upset pick will earn 0 points.
Maximum Points Possible
If all picks are correct, base trifecta of 2 points plus:
Kal Krome: SEA (10 HT), PIT (7), and GB (3) or KC (3) = 22 Total The Strategist: KC (8 HT), PIT (7), and SEA (5) = 22 Total Minds Blank: GB (8 HT), PIT (7), and SEA (5) = 22 Total Little Tuna: NE (5 HT), PIT (7), and SEA (5) = 19 Total The Bookie: CAR (5 HT), PIT (7), and GB (3) or KC (3) = 17 Total Wise Orangutan: ARI (5 HT), PIT (7), and SEA (5) = 19 Total B-Reezy: SEA (5), PIT (7), and GB (3) or KC (3) = 17 Total Big Tuna: DEN (5 HT), SEA (5), and GB (3) or KC (3) = 15 Total
The minimum possible for a winning trifecta is 2 points (2 base trifecta points) if an Analyst were to take three of the highest-seeded teams owned by another Analyst (for example: if B-Reezy picks Panthers, Broncos, Patriots).
World Football Trifecta League | The Mismeasure of Machines
[Scroll to the bottom for the latest results]
The World Football Trifecta League Year in Review reveals that Machines are no better than (Wo)Man at predicting football winners. In our league competition, only 67% of the three most probable winning picks as estimated by the fivethirtyeight.com ELO model proved correct in 2015-16 — barely higher than its total picks (65.2%). In addition, the Bing / Cortana model was 63% correct for the year overall, a rate of accuracy that corresponds to the average accuracy of our little league and the experts. Lastly, Madden 16 simulations at Bleacher Report finished with a 128-94 record – a questionable 57% (despite the self-congratulations).
When forced to select from the eight teams favored by our World Football Trifecta League Analysts, however, the ELO prediction model actually performed better (left table below). The ELO model favored Cardinals over Rams in Week 4 and Chiefs over Bears in Week 5 (right table below), both incorrect picks. Picking Broncos (week 4) and Patriots (week 5) reduced the estimated probability of a winning trifecta in both weeks, but resulted in winning trifectas nonetheless. In other words, a little human bias improved the ELO model’s trifecta accuracy from 4 to 6 trifectas — plus 50%.
fivethirtyeight.com ELO Predictions with and without Bias
Apparently, any machine or optimization model can pick games as accurately as the average human (~63%) based on perceived strength or record. The real question is: which machine models a bias most like a human for its own profit? Ultimately, if the Machines hope to swindle The Odds Makers, they must do more than pick games as accurately as humans (63% of the time). The Machines must submit accurate picks with the appearance of human bias — or risk being identified and blacklisted by The Bookies.
To this end, the Clearinghouse has organized a Turing League and will stage the first-ever Super Turing Bowl as a test to determine which professional football prediction model performs most like biased Humans while maximizing its rewards!
The Entrants | Home Teams
The Clearinghouse has recruited six different pure-bred Machines and two Cyborgs to predict world professional football games in the playoffs per the Super Trifecta Bowl rules. Notably, the six Machines favored five different teams to become the NFL champion in 2015-2016 and the order of Home Team selection may have little influence on the outcome of Super Turing Bowl I.
The Machines selected Home Teams first and by random drawing. ELO Machine won the coin toss and selected the Panthers with the first selection. Selecting second, Bhanpuri Machine selected its favorite, the Bengals. Third, Bing Machine predicted the Patriots to repeat as NFL champions. Fourth, DVOA Machine favored the Panthers (already claimed), but was pleased to draw the Seahawks – its second most likely to win the Championship and its best team by DVOA at the end of the year. Selecting fifth, the Harvard SA Machine found their favored Cardinals still available. In sixth position, Madden 16 Machine sponsored its August championship prediction, the Steelers.
The Clearinghouse then assigned the CBS Pick Cyborg the best available team by seed (Broncos – AFC 1st seed – ostensibly its second choice), while the Vegas Odds Cyborg received the best available team by odds (Chiefs – the 7th best odds before the Wildcard Round is played).
As a control and yardstick for biased game predictions, Mike Ditka, who cursed counter-intuitively picked the Packers to win the world professional football championship back in September, is representing humankind. Though not a participant in the contest between Machines and Cyborgs, Ditka will pick three winners each week according to his biases and earn points based on the Turing League’s Home Teams.
The Machines are not aware that Mike Ditka is a man — we presume. At the conclusion of the contest, Machine biases will be measured against the Manliness of Ditka.
The Entrants and Home Teams are:
Machine Entrants for Super Turing Bowl I
The Pick Process | Weekly Trifecta Favorites
The Machines and Cyborgs have different methods for expressing their predictions. Bhanpuri Machine and Harvard SA Machine released tables indicating the probability of each team progressing in the playoffs to win the world professional football championship game. Weekly predictions will be based on a ratio of Hi-Lo probabilities for teams to move to the final round of the playoffs.
ELO Machine, DVOA Machine, Harvard SA Machine [revision], and Bing Machine (via Cortana) release weekly predictions based on the most recently available information. After its uncanny prediction last February, Madden 16 Machine apparently signed a contract with The Bleacher Report for its official simulations. The weekly predictions are utilized for these Machines.
The CBS Pick Cyborg will favor the teams with the highest register of fan support (by percentage) while the Vegas Odds Machine will pick the three teams with the largest spreads to cover (as of Friday).
Per the rules, the Machines and Cyborgs cannot pick against their Home Teams in any round. A routine, therefore, has to be set for selecting their Home Team and submitting three picks. A couple of Machines do not provide enough information to calculate a risk-rewards ratios for all trifecta points. As a result, Machine Picks will seek to maximize the likelihood of picking three winners by favoring their Home Team and championship prediction.
The Picks Routine is then:
1. If the Home Team is favored to win by any margin (probability or rating or spread), the Home Team is selected to maximize points.
2. If the Home Team is not favored to win in the Wildcard or Divisional Round, the Machine or Cyborg selects from the other contests.
3. Picks for the non-Home Teams are submitted in order of win probability in order to secure the base trifecta.
4. If a Home Team is eliminated, the Machine or Cyborg will change its bias to the most favorable Player Hater or Seeder Redux eligible team by prediction each week.
In other words, the Machines and Cyborgs will focus on picking three winning teams each week while adhering to the bias for its pro football championship predictions to become true. If the prediction fails, then the contestants will seek to maximize points with an un-owned or lower-seeded team regardless of win-loss prediction.
Picks | Wildcard Round
[Harvard SA Machine brought its interesting twitter account to our attention and we will rely on its weekly tweets for the strength of predictions. Summaries revised.]
Three Machines have Home Teams active in the Wildcard Round and Three Machines have teams on a bye week.
Bhanpuri Machine picks its Home Team Bengals to win, plus the Chiefs and Seahawks per ratios of Hi-Lo ratings. By odds of each team appearing in the Conference Championship games, DVOA Machine picks its Home Team, the Seahawks, plus the Chiefs and Redskins. At Bleacher Report, Madden 16 Machine reveals its favorites by projected score: Steelers (Home Team), Texans (the only Player Hater pick by a Machine), and Seahawks.
ELO Machine projects Chiefs, Bengals, and Seahawks as its most probable trifecta (19.8%). While the Patriots rest, Bing Machine selects the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Redskins as its most probable trifecta (22.6%) – consistent with its pre-playoff predictions. Lastly, Harvard SA Machine tweets its predictions for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Packers Seahawks [revision] have the better odds than their opponents to progress to the next round.
The CBS Picks Cyborg records the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers as the most likely to move on from the Wildcard Round, while the Vegas Odds Cyborg suggests the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers. Lastly, Mike Ditka attempts a rope-a-dope against the Machines and Cyborgs by favoring the Redskins over his pre-season favorite Packers. Since he can’t pick against the Packers, Mike Ditka submits the Texans, Steelers, and Seahawks in the Wildcard Round.
Picks in the Wildcard Round of Super Turing Bowl I
Vegas Odds Cyborg and Madden 16 Machine make a play for the most points in the Wildcard Round of the Super Turing Bowl. ELO, Bing, and Harvard SA Machine form a consensus for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Seahawks.
Pick Results | Wildcard Round
Updated Sunday, January 10, 2016
Pick Results in the Wildcard Round of Super Turing Bowl I
A brutal week for the Machines in the Wildcard Round of the first Super Turing Bowl.
Bhanpuri Machine’s Bengals fumble in the Jungle, ending their predicted Championship run after only one game. The Bengals loss also ended the Wildcard trifecta dreams of ELO Machine and Harvard SA Machine. Bing Machine and DVOA Machine did not like that Mike Ditka’s Packers rediscovered a running game and offensive production, while Madden 16 Machine’s player hater upset by the Texans failed to materialize.
Madden 16 Machine’s Steelers and DVOA Machine’s Seahawks proved to be the winning bias for the Machines. The Cyborgs, however, dominated the Wildcard Round with the winning trifecta of Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers. Although a fiercely close and cold contest for the Cyborgs in Minnesota, a misguided field goal attempt in the final minute secured the winning trifecta for the Cyborgs.
Among humanity, Mike Ditka let his provincial Bears- and Cowboys-biases against the Packers get the best of him as he let a valuable trifecta slip through his fingers when the Texans laid an egg and the valiant Packers triumphed.
Standings | Wildcard Round
Updated Monday, January 11, 2016
The Vegas Odds Cyborg (14) and the CBS Pick Cyborg (10) spring out of the gates to take the lead in Super Turing Bowl I. Both Cyborgs earned the only base trifectas in the Wildcard Round. In third place, Madden 16 Machine (7) separates itself from the pack and equals the trifecta point production of the archetype of team bias in mankind, Mike Ditka.
In fourth place, DVOA Machine (5) capitalizes on its upset-minded team to gain one length over the rest of the competition. ELO Machine (4), Bhanpuri Machine (4), Bing Machine (4), and Harvard SA Machine (4) leave the gates at a ho-hum trot to contest fifth place.
Standings after the Wildcard Round of the Super Turing Bowl I
Vegas Odds Cyborg made the most of its pole position, as the the Chiefs trump the rest of the field 30-0, and collects all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points at stake in the Wildcard Round. DVOA Machine and Madden 16 Machine score the Playoff Victory points. Bhanpuri Machine, outwitted by Madden 16 Machine, sees its filly retired to the stables for the year.
Home Team Tiebreakers after the Wildcard Round of Super Turing Bowl I
Most Machines and Cyborgs wisely avoided the pursuit of Player Hater points in the Super Turing Bowl, but Seeder Redux points were ripe for the predictive harvest. Mike Ditka set a manly bar with picks for both #6 seeds (Seahawks and Steelers). The Cyborgs and the Madden 16 Machine skillfully followed suit with rewarding Picks for both #6 seeds.
DVOA Machine road its championship prediction (Seahawks), flanked by ELO Machine, Bing Machine and Harvard SA Machine. Bhanpuri Machine, which could not take the Steelers to win, also countered with a winning upset Pick with the six-seed Seahawks.
Common Tiebreakers after the Wildcard Round in Super Turing Bowl I
Preliminary Favorites | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 11, 2016
Picks have begun to come in from the Machines for the Divisional Round, but will not be finalized until Friday. Since the Machines and Mike Ditka are not subject to the bias of others, The Clearinghouse will post trifecta submissions as they are received.
Preliminary Favorites for the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I
ELO Machine runs the numbers and submits its favorite, The Panthers, with Cardinals and Broncos to complete the trifecta. Bhanpuri Machine, confronted by the elimination of its Home Team, changes its allegiance to the highly-rated Steelers in its model and rounds out its pick three with the Cardinals and Panthers.
DVOA Machine, after updating its odds, suspects the Panthers will beat its Home Team, Seahawks. In a Ditk-ish move to prove its intelligence, DVOA Machine submits Cardinals, Broncos, and Chiefs. Harvard SA Machine backs its championship prediction, the Cardinals, as well as the Patriots and Panthers.
[Madden 16 Machine is expected to release its simulation at Bleacher Report on Friday].
In early Cyborg activity, CBS Pick Cyborg leans toward its Broncos plus the Cardinals and Panthers. Vegas Odds Machine has low expectations for the Chiefs, its Home Team, to win in New England and plays the odds in order to hold onto its big lead by picking the Cardinals, Broncos, and Panthers.
No word from Mike Ditka at this time.
Overall, safe favroites for average-to-low Super Trifecta points by the Machines and Cyborgs. This week, however, there is more variance in the teams supported by the Machines. Bing Machine will be rooting for the Packers to break the pace of its competitors while Bhanpuri Machine and Harvard SA Machine look for an upset in Denver. DVOA Machine will be backing upsets in both New England and Carolina.
Picks | Divisional Round
Updated Friday, January 15, 2016
Machines, Cyborgs, and Mike Ditka have submitted their final Picks for the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I. Notably, no two Machines favor the same three teams to win in the Divisional Round. One is bound to separate itself from the mechanical plebs with a winning bias! The Clearinghouse is a little disappointed to see the Cyborgs submit the same three picks a second time. It may not matter in any case — Mike Ditka seeks to punk the Machine-Cyborg threat with two aggressive upset picks in the Divisional Round!
Picks for the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I
With the variety in the Machines’ picks this week, The Clearinghouse gives each Machine and Cyborg a little space to explain its picks:
ELO Machine favors wins by the Cardinals, Broncos, and Panthers (its Home Team) this week. The Patriots-Chiefs game is nearly a push (51% | 49%), so it avoids the pitfalls of an evenly matched contest. Unfortunately, ELO shares its picks with the Cyborgs, so it will not make up much ground with the current leaders.
Bhanpuri Machine after seeing its championship favorite bounced in the first round pins its point hopes on the Steelers in the Divisional Round (per pick selection criterion #4). If the Steelers win, Bhanpuri will capitalize big as 6 Machines and Cyborgs favor the Broncos. Cardinals and Panthers round out its pick three.
Bing Machine endorses its championship prediction and lists the Patriots as one of the three most likely winners this week. With its bracket busted, however, Bing Machine picks the Cardinals and Broncos as the most likely teams to advance this week. (NOTE: This differs from the preliminary picks above based on the bracket predictions).
DVOA Machine estimates the Seahawks-Panthers game a push, 49.3% vs. 50.7% chance of winning, but leans in favor of the Panthers. Since DVOA Machine cannot pick against his Home Team Seahawks, it submits Cardinals, Broncos, and the upset-minded Chiefs in a unique play. Although a safe play for 7 points, if the Chiefs and Seahawks win, DVOA Machine will trump the other Machines and Cyborgs.
Harvard SA Machine goes all-in on its Home Team Cardinals. Avoiding the quarterback uncertainty in Denver, it adds local favorites, the Patriots, and the Panthers. Noteworthy, all of the Machines and Cyborgs pick its championed team, the Cardinals, to win and move onto Championship weekend. Perhaps the other Machines and Cyborgs have been baised by the Harvard reputation!
Madden 16 Machine simulates a dubious end for its preseason championship prediction, the Steelers, with an ugly loss. To avoid a complete collapse in Super Turing Bowl I, it hedges its bets with the Seahawks in a play for 5 Seeder Redux points. Madden 16 Machine also has the Patriots and Cardinals winning comfortably.
CBS Picks Cyborg and Vegas Odds Cyborg are bullish on the Broncos and Cardinals. CBS Picks Cyborgs gives a slight edge to the Panthers over the Patriots as its third pick. Vegas Odds Cyborg leans toward Patriots as the more reliable pick, but it may not pick against its assigned Home Team, the Chiefs. With trepidation, Vegas Odds Cyborg backs the Panthers and a nominal -1.5 spread.
Mike Ditka looks to end the debate between Man, Machine, and Cyborg. First, he appeared to leak his picks to the Charlotte Observer earlier in the week: “Ditka’s picking the Panthers to beat Seattle and go on to the Super Bowl, where Rivera’s former coach believes Carolina will beat New England.” At ESPN, however, he submits the Chiefs as one of three upsets of the week! A dastardly human trick on the unsuspecting Machines and Cyborgs, to say the least.
In addition, Ditka again curses picks the Packers as favorites to win. If the Packers win, he will crush the Machine and Cyborg consensus favorites. If not, he will retire for the evening pleased to have thrown more fuel on the “curse” controversy! With the uncertainty in his Patriots and Chiefs selection, Ditka completes his pick three with the Panthers and the Steelers — an upset he picked last week because its his home town! If Ditka’s trifecta delivers, the Beau Ideal of Bias will be mothballing Machines and Cyborgs in the Championship Round of Super Turing Bowl I!
Pick Results | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Pick Results in the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I
The Machines make a stand against the unpredictable picks of Mike Ditka!
ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine correctly pick three winners to earn the first trifectas by the Machines. What looked like a safe play on higher seeded teams to start the weekend, these three Machines sponsored three finalists for the Championship Round and accurately picked three higher seeds to win the Divisional Round.
Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine each picked a judicious upset in the Divisional Round, but failed to convert on onside kick opportunities that may have sent their games into overtime.
The Cyborgs continue to dominate the competition with a second trifecta in two weeks. Vegas Odds Machine astutely avoided the emotional upset pick and secured a trifecta with the Home Teams of other Analysts. CBS Picks Cyborg capitalized on its assigned team, the #1 seed Broncos.
Mike Ditka went off the rails in the Divisional Round. Whether driven by home town bias (PIT) or the allure of a curse (GB), the Beau Ideal of Bias missed on two of three picks and failed to build a lead over several Machines before the Championship Round.
Standings | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016
ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine move into position to challenge the Cyborgs in the Championship leg of Super Turing Bowl I. Riding trifectas that included their championship predictions, the three Machines overtake Madden 16 Machine.
Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine erroneously played for an additional post-season upset. With their championship steeds eliminated, the three Machines are not able to overtake the Cyborgs in the final leg of Super Turing Bowl I. We shall see how well Machines play for respect in the upcoming weeks.
The Cyborgs pad their lead in the Divisional Round by favoring the higher seeds. CBS Picks Cyborg moves into a first place tie with Vegas Odds Machine after its Home Team bucks Madden 16 Machine’s favorite. The Championship round will determine if the mob (picks) or money (bets) proves to be the better bias in Super Turing Bowl I.
One has to wonder if Mike Ditka preferred to the lay the curse on the Packers rather than defeat both Machines and Cyborgs in a contest of prescience. Nonetheless, Ditka still has an outside chance to defeat the majority of the Machines if he plays his biases correctly in the final leg of Super Turing Bowl I.
Standings after the Divisional Round of the Super Turing Bowl I
ELO Machine, by virtue of its Home Team’s offensive dominance, gains a Reverse PC-Fecta point to take a one length lead over the next closest Machine. CBS Picks Cyborg netted two Reverse PC-Fecta points to move into a tie with Vegas Odds Cyborg.
Heading into the final leg, ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine will need to sweep the Reverse PC-Fecta points in order to catch the Cyborgs in the final leg.
Home Team Tiebreakers after the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I
Player Hater points and Seeder Redux points were not for the taking in the Divisional Round. While Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine strategically favored on upset in the week, the games ended with futile onset kicks.
In the final week, the Patriots and Cardinals afford a single Seeder Redux point to close the race.
Common Tiebreakers after the Divisional Round in Super Turing Bowl I
Picks | Conference Championship Round
Updated Saturday, January 23, 2016
With one exception, the Picks have been submitted for the Conference Championship Round of Super Turing Bowl I. Despite the options narrowing, the Machines split their favor in the Conference Championship. The Cyborgs anticipate the same winners, but the CBS Picks Cyborg must stick with its Home Team Broncos to win. Mike Ditka attempts to correct course this week and follows the Vegas Odds Cyborg’s picks!
Picks for the Conference Championships in Super Turing Bowl I
In order of likelihood of strength:
CBS Picks Cyborg: With 16 points in the first two rounds, CBS Picks Cyborg only needs a Broncos win to take the first Super Turing Bowl. Unfortunately, the Cyborg’s human inputs suggest its Home Team will lose. Will Home Team bias help CBS Picks Cyborg beat the odds?
Vegas Odds Cyborg: With 16 points, Vegas Odds Cyborg gains if the Patriots show it the money. The Cyborg still must pick the world professional football champion correctly to secure the trophy.
The Machines are largely playing for bragging rights among each other at this points since the Cyborgs built such a commanding lead.
ELO Machine: With 9 points total, ELO Machine can reach 16 points if its Home Team Panthers march to victory.
Bing Machine: With 8 points total, Bing Machine can reach 17 points if its Home Team Patriots upset the competition.
Harvard SA Machine: Also with 8 points, Harvard SA Machine, can reach 17 points if its Home Team Cardinals earn their first championship.
The other Machines have been eliminated from the Super Turing Bowl I, but one has a chance to outwit Mike Ditka.
If Mike Ditka sticks to his Charlotte Observer prediction, then he is going for 2 more points and 9 total.
Madden 16 Machine can reach 9 points this week with its picks for the #2 seeds. If it then picks the champion correctly, it will beat the Beau Ideal of Bias.
Bhanpuri Machine and DVOA Machine are competing for last place.
Picks | Championship Game
Updated Sunday, February 7, 2016
ELO Machine and CBS Pick Cyborg, which was forced to take the Broncos in the Conference Championship, came out of the Conference Championships looking a lot like the lucky player to have a playoff bias. At this point in the competition, only DVOA Machine also picked the Broncos and Panthers for the Championship Game. The final picks are:
Picks for the Championship Game in Super Turing Bowl I
After the 49-15 drubbing of the Cardinals, ELO Machine pretty much has the Reverse PCFectas locked up. But you never know, Broncos may win 50-14, and that is why we pick the games!
Final Results| Super Turing Bowl I
CBS Pick Cyborg, which once again was forced to take the Broncos because its first choice was already taken, wins Super Turing Bowl I!
Vegas Odds Cyborg, with the seventh best odds Chiefs, finishes second.
Among the machines, ELO wins the competition hands down with 15 Super Trifecta points. Several lengths behind, Bing Machine and Harvard SA Machine tie in a photo finish for second place (tie).
Madden 16 Machine edges out the rest of the competition for fourth place.
Cyborgs bests the Machines! There may yet be a future for Mankind in the Robot future!
Trifecta Points
Final Results for Super Turing Bowl I
Tiebreakers
Final Home Team Tiebreakers for Super Turing Bowl IFinal Common Tiebreakers for Super Turing Bowl I
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Slate of Games for the Wildcard Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts may pick from any of the four games, including the game without any Analyst Home Teams (Steelers vs. Bengals). Analysts with one of the top two seeds in each conference are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Wildcard round will earn 1 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Wildcard Round, 1 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking the Texans to beat The Strategist’s Chiefs or the yet-to-be-renamed-Washington team to beat Minds Blank’s Packers.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Steelers (3 points), Chiefs (1 point), Seahawks (3 points), and Packers (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, If Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Seahawks to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If Kal Krome correctly picks the Seahawks to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 1 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (7 total possible). If Kal Krome does not include the Seahawks in his trifecta picks, a victory by the Seahawks will yield only the Playoff Victory point (1 total).
Strategery
As we – the Clearinghouse and The Bookie – have invested money, time, and thought in our research to devise the best possible test of predictive skill, we must point out several considerations for the new point system:
1) Points in the early rounds are integral. If a Home Team is eliminated in the Wildcard or Divisional round, the Analyst will not be able to earn Playoff Victory or Reverse PCFecta points in later rounds. And, the base trifecta points for picking three correctly goes down each week.
2) Head-to-head competitions will make or break the Analysts strategy. Kal Krome or B-Reezy will be on thin ice for the rest of the competition depending on which Home Team loses this week.
3) If an Analyst’s Home Team falters, be a proud player hater. Most of the un-owned teams are low seeds and yield Player Hater points plus Seeder Redux points with each correct pick to win.
In other words, it is not the Horse the Analyst rides in, but the Horse the Analyst rides out that may win the Trophy!
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
In the first year of the World Football Trifecta League, only 2 away teams upset their hosts (20%) – the lowest upset rate of the past 13 years. The Ravens upset the Steelers in the Wildcard round and the Colts upset the Broncos in the Divisional round. Three away teams lost close games on questionable officiating calls: Lions to Cowboys (flag|no flag), Cowboys to Packers (catch|no catch), and Ravens to Patriots (legal formation|illegal formation). In the Championship round, the Packers gave away the NFC Championship to the Seahawks with an onside recovery. It could have been 6 away team wins just as easily as it was 2.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
Headed into the final regular season race of the year, the Analysts opt to hold onto their horse senses. For the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup, the entrants are:
The Analysts and their Home Teams for the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup
Slate of Games
The Slate of Games for the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup
The slate of games for the Seeders’ Cup II includes only two head-to-head match-ups (again, the first tiebreaker) in Leg 3. In the early afternoon contest, Little Tuna and Wise Orangutan once again clash in the Seeders Cup. In the late afternoon contest, The Strategist sends her filly (or is it folly?) to challenge Kal Krome.
For the most part, the Analysts’ Home Teams are fighting their own demons to gain entry into the post season. Analysts have 8 games to select from each week except Leg 3 (6 games).
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). Featured games may now be subject to broadcast flexing, but the Thursday night and Saturday game will be played in Leg 2. Otherwise, the Analysts have until Saturdays to pick their seed favorites.
Several games un-sponsored steeds in playoff contention. Seeder points can be earned by picking the outsiders correctly. The Cardinals and Bengals currently lead their divisions, while the Steelers, Vikings, and Bills are in the playoff hunt.
Picks and Points
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win, but the second tiebreaker remains the number of correct Home Team selections. See the Seeders Cups rules for more.
The point value of a winning trifecta depends on the playoff clinching scenarios for each week. Look for the potential Seeder Points available in the game options each week. In Leg 1, the potential seeder points are:
Panthers (3) | Broncos (1, 2) | Patriots (1, 2)
Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, December 12.
The most points available in the Seeders’ Cup depends on who is in contention for seeding in the playoffs. The Panthers have already clinched their division, so nobody can earn playoff or division seeder points with the Panthers.
The Cardinals and the Bengals are also contending for bye week and home field advantages. If they clinch seeds off-list, then those points are not available.
Do not wait to the final week to make the big play in the Seeders’ Cup. Start strong, finish strong!
