Season II Analyst Analytics
To end the year, Little Tuna (73%) and The Strategist (71%) finished the season with the highest Pick accuracy rates. Big Tuna (65%) was the only other Analyst to finish above the Average Pick Accuracy Rate of 64%.
The average trifecta accuracy rate of the Analysts was 25% for the year. Little Tuna (41%), The Strategist (35%), and The Bookie (29%) beat the average rate. In total, we have four Above-Average-Analysts-of-the-Year!
In the individual races, it is not all about accuracy. Kal Krome (60%) won the Fibonacci Stakes despite falling below the average accuracy rate for the race (65%). In the Seeders’ Cup, The Strategist had the better pick accuracy (75%) than Little Tuna (67%) and lost nonetheless. Congratulations to the race winners, Little Tuna (3), The Strategist (1), and Kal Krome (1).
What truly matters in football analysis, though, is how our Analysts compare to The Monkey, The Man, and The Machine!
The Monkey
Last year, The Clearinghouse introduced the notion that some of our Analysts may be less accurate than a monkey flinging its poo at the names of three teams each week. Those three teams would have a 50% chance of being correct, on average, and The Monkey could accurately pick a trifecta 12.5% of the time (50% times 50% times 50% equals 12.5%).
In a 17-week competition, the proverbial poo-flinging monkey is expected to pick 2.125 trifectas during the season – the true test of being smarter than a monkey. Six of eight Analysts provide evidence that humankind is more evolved than poo-flinging monkeys!
The Man
Another test for our Analysts’ expertise is the direct comparison with their colleagues who make picks each week (CBS) and in our sports nation (ESPN). At CBS and ESPN, the so-called NFL Expert Picks ranged in accuracy from 59% to 66% (CBS) and from 56% to 64% (ESPN). The ESPN Sports Nation favorite was accurate in 63% of its picks. Thus, our eight Analysts compare favorably to the tele-tubey experts and collectively beat the nation with a 64% accuracy rate.
In a true test of football acumen, however, there is one man in the nation who stands above all other men (and all tele-tubey NFL experts are men) – Mike Ditka. At ESPN, The Oracle of Ditka picked 153 games accurately for a rate of 60% – a lower accuracy rate than all but three of our mixed-gender WFTL Experts during the year!
The Machine
The Clearinghouse has offered the fivethirtyeight.com ELO predictions as a resource to our Analysts during the year. The risk, however, was that The Machine is more accurate than Man or Woman. So, we at the Clearinghouse, tracked ELO predictions for the Analyst of the Year Award – since winning picks and trifectas are the only consideration for the annual competition.
Each week, ELO suggested three teams with the highest probability of winning their respective games, and a trifecta, as seen below.
As the table above shows, ELO had a rough year, correctly picking 34 games (67%) and accurately predicting only 4 trifectas total (24%). The four trifectas were spread across the four races (one per race). ELO would not have won an individual race or the annual competition by picking the most likely winners. In Week 16, like many of our illustrious Analysts, ELO had zero correct picks.
Overall, with an average 47.8% trifecta probability rate, ELO expected to earn EIGHT trifectas during the year and earned only FOUR. How frustrating for The Machine Overlords!
The Ribbons
Without further ado:
For prognostications that proved more accurate than ELO predictions in both trifectas and picks, Little Tuna and The Strategist earn Blue-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbons! The Bookie earns a Yellow-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbon for predicting more trifectas than ELO!
Man might not defeat the Machines, but Woman will!
[Round of enthusiastic applause]
Honorable mention for Big Tuna, Wise Orangutan, and Kal Krome for representing Man as nearly the equal of Machine.
[Round of unenthusiastic and uncertain applause]
Five Analysts earn More-Powerful-than-The-Ditka Ribbons: Little Tuna, The Strategist, Big Tuna, The Bookie, and Wise Orangutan.
[A few lonely whistles and catcalls from the Analysts’ Balcony]
Finally, the Go-Buy-a-Monkey Ribbons go to…. Minds Blank and B-Reezy!
[Coughs and murmurs in the audience]
Oh, how the mighty Minds Blank has fallen!
[A gesture from the Analysts’ Balcony]
