World Football Trifecta League | The Mismeasure of Machines
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The World Football Trifecta League Year in Review reveals that Machines are no better than (Wo)Man at predicting football winners. In our league competition, only 67% of the three most probable winning picks as estimated by the fivethirtyeight.com ELO model proved correct in 2015-16 — barely higher than its total picks (65.2%). In addition, the Bing / Cortana model was 63% correct for the year overall, a rate of accuracy that corresponds to the average accuracy of our little league and the experts. Lastly, Madden 16 simulations at Bleacher Report finished with a 128-94 record – a questionable 57% (despite the self-congratulations).
When forced to select from the eight teams favored by our World Football Trifecta League Analysts, however, the ELO prediction model actually performed better (left table below). The ELO model favored Cardinals over Rams in Week 4 and Chiefs over Bears in Week 5 (right table below), both incorrect picks. Picking Broncos (week 4) and Patriots (week 5) reduced the estimated probability of a winning trifecta in both weeks, but resulted in winning trifectas nonetheless. In other words, a little human bias improved the ELO model’s trifecta accuracy from 4 to 6 trifectas — plus 50%.
Apparently, any machine or optimization model can pick games as accurately as the average human (~63%) based on perceived strength or record. The real question is: which machine models a bias most like a human for its own profit? Ultimately, if the Machines hope to swindle The Odds Makers, they must do more than pick games as accurately as humans (63% of the time). The Machines must submit accurate picks with the appearance of human bias — or risk being identified and blacklisted by The Bookies.
To this end, the Clearinghouse has organized a Turing League and will stage the first-ever Super Turing Bowl as a test to determine which professional football prediction model performs most like biased Humans while maximizing its rewards!
The Entrants | Home Teams
The Clearinghouse has recruited six different pure-bred Machines and two Cyborgs to predict world professional football games in the playoffs per the Super Trifecta Bowl rules. Notably, the six Machines favored five different teams to become the NFL champion in 2015-2016 and the order of Home Team selection may have little influence on the outcome of Super Turing Bowl I.
The Machine Entrants are: ELO Machine, Bhanphuri Machine, Bing Machine, Harvard SA Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine. To round out the competition to eight contestants, the Clearinghouse added CBS Pick Cyborg and Vegas Odds Cyborg to represent Cyborgs. The Cyborgs rely on Human inputs (picks or bets), hence the distinction as a machine-human hybrid.
The Machines selected Home Teams first and by random drawing. ELO Machine won the coin toss and selected the Panthers with the first selection. Selecting second, Bhanpuri Machine selected its favorite, the Bengals. Third, Bing Machine predicted the Patriots to repeat as NFL champions. Fourth, DVOA Machine favored the Panthers (already claimed), but was pleased to draw the Seahawks – its second most likely to win the Championship and its best team by DVOA at the end of the year. Selecting fifth, the Harvard SA Machine found their favored Cardinals still available. In sixth position, Madden 16 Machine sponsored its August championship prediction, the Steelers.
The Clearinghouse then assigned the CBS Pick Cyborg the best available team by seed (Broncos – AFC 1st seed – ostensibly its second choice), while the Vegas Odds Cyborg received the best available team by odds (Chiefs – the 7th best odds before the Wildcard Round is played).
As a control and yardstick for biased game predictions, Mike Ditka, who cursed counter-intuitively picked the Packers to win the world professional football championship back in September, is representing humankind. Though not a participant in the contest between Machines and Cyborgs, Ditka will pick three winners each week according to his biases and earn points based on the Turing League’s Home Teams.
The Machines are not aware that Mike Ditka is a man — we presume. At the conclusion of the contest, Machine biases will be measured against the Manliness of Ditka.
The Entrants and Home Teams are:
The Pick Process | Weekly Trifecta Favorites
The Machines and Cyborgs have different methods for expressing their predictions. Bhanpuri Machine and Harvard SA Machine released tables indicating the probability of each team progressing in the playoffs to win the world professional football championship game. Weekly predictions will be based on a ratio of Hi-Lo probabilities for teams to move to the final round of the playoffs.
ELO Machine, DVOA Machine, Harvard SA Machine [revision], and Bing Machine (via Cortana) release weekly predictions based on the most recently available information. After its uncanny prediction last February, Madden 16 Machine apparently signed a contract with The Bleacher Report for its official simulations. The weekly predictions are utilized for these Machines.
The CBS Pick Cyborg will favor the teams with the highest register of fan support (by percentage) while the Vegas Odds Machine will pick the three teams with the largest spreads to cover (as of Friday).
Per the rules, the Machines and Cyborgs cannot pick against their Home Teams in any round. A routine, therefore, has to be set for selecting their Home Team and submitting three picks. A couple of Machines do not provide enough information to calculate a risk-rewards ratios for all trifecta points. As a result, Machine Picks will seek to maximize the likelihood of picking three winners by favoring their Home Team and championship prediction.
The Picks Routine is then:
1. If the Home Team is favored to win by any margin (probability or rating or spread), the Home Team is selected to maximize points.
2. If the Home Team is not favored to win in the Wildcard or Divisional Round, the Machine or Cyborg selects from the other contests.
3. Picks for the non-Home Teams are submitted in order of win probability in order to secure the base trifecta.
4. If a Home Team is eliminated, the Machine or Cyborg will change its bias to the most favorable Player Hater or Seeder Redux eligible team by prediction each week.
In other words, the Machines and Cyborgs will focus on picking three winning teams each week while adhering to the bias for its pro football championship predictions to become true. If the prediction fails, then the contestants will seek to maximize points with an un-owned or lower-seeded team regardless of win-loss prediction.
Picks | Wildcard Round
[Harvard SA Machine brought its interesting twitter account to our attention and we will rely on its weekly tweets for the strength of predictions. Summaries revised.]
Three Machines have Home Teams active in the Wildcard Round and Three Machines have teams on a bye week.
Bhanpuri Machine picks its Home Team Bengals to win, plus the Chiefs and Seahawks per ratios of Hi-Lo ratings. By odds of each team appearing in the Conference Championship games, DVOA Machine picks its Home Team, the Seahawks, plus the Chiefs and Redskins. At Bleacher Report, Madden 16 Machine reveals its favorites by projected score: Steelers (Home Team), Texans (the only Player Hater pick by a Machine), and Seahawks.
ELO Machine projects Chiefs, Bengals, and Seahawks as its most probable trifecta (19.8%). While the Patriots rest, Bing Machine selects the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Redskins as its most probable trifecta (22.6%) – consistent with its pre-playoff predictions. Lastly, Harvard SA Machine tweets its predictions for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Packers Seahawks [revision] have the better odds than their opponents to progress to the next round.
The CBS Picks Cyborg records the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers as the most likely to move on from the Wildcard Round, while the Vegas Odds Cyborg suggests the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers. Lastly, Mike Ditka attempts a rope-a-dope against the Machines and Cyborgs by favoring the Redskins over his pre-season favorite Packers. Since he can’t pick against the Packers, Mike Ditka submits the Texans, Steelers, and Seahawks in the Wildcard Round.
Vegas Odds Cyborg and Madden 16 Machine make a play for the most points in the Wildcard Round of the Super Turing Bowl. ELO, Bing, and Harvard SA Machine form a consensus for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Seahawks.
Pick Results | Wildcard Round
Updated Sunday, January 10, 2016
A brutal week for the Machines in the Wildcard Round of the first Super Turing Bowl.
Bhanpuri Machine’s Bengals fumble in the Jungle, ending their predicted Championship run after only one game. The Bengals loss also ended the Wildcard trifecta dreams of ELO Machine and Harvard SA Machine. Bing Machine and DVOA Machine did not like that Mike Ditka’s Packers rediscovered a running game and offensive production, while Madden 16 Machine’s player hater upset by the Texans failed to materialize.
Madden 16 Machine’s Steelers and DVOA Machine’s Seahawks proved to be the winning bias for the Machines. The Cyborgs, however, dominated the Wildcard Round with the winning trifecta of Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers. Although a fiercely close and cold contest for the Cyborgs in Minnesota, a misguided field goal attempt in the final minute secured the winning trifecta for the Cyborgs.
Among humanity, Mike Ditka let his provincial Bears- and Cowboys-biases against the Packers get the best of him as he let a valuable trifecta slip through his fingers when the Texans laid an egg and the valiant Packers triumphed.
Standings | Wildcard Round
Updated Monday, January 11, 2016
The Vegas Odds Cyborg (14) and the CBS Pick Cyborg (10) spring out of the gates to take the lead in Super Turing Bowl I. Both Cyborgs earned the only base trifectas in the Wildcard Round. In third place, Madden 16 Machine (7) separates itself from the pack and equals the trifecta point production of the archetype of team bias in mankind, Mike Ditka.
In fourth place, DVOA Machine (5) capitalizes on its upset-minded team to gain one length over the rest of the competition. ELO Machine (4), Bhanpuri Machine (4), Bing Machine (4), and Harvard SA Machine (4) leave the gates at a ho-hum trot to contest fifth place.
Vegas Odds Cyborg made the most of its pole position, as the the Chiefs trump the rest of the field 30-0, and collects all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points at stake in the Wildcard Round. DVOA Machine and Madden 16 Machine score the Playoff Victory points. Bhanpuri Machine, outwitted by Madden 16 Machine, sees its filly retired to the stables for the year.
Most Machines and Cyborgs wisely avoided the pursuit of Player Hater points in the Super Turing Bowl, but Seeder Redux points were ripe for the predictive harvest. Mike Ditka set a manly bar with picks for both #6 seeds (Seahawks and Steelers). The Cyborgs and the Madden 16 Machine skillfully followed suit with rewarding Picks for both #6 seeds.
DVOA Machine road its championship prediction (Seahawks), flanked by ELO Machine, Bing Machine and Harvard SA Machine. Bhanpuri Machine, which could not take the Steelers to win, also countered with a winning upset Pick with the six-seed Seahawks.
Preliminary Favorites | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 11, 2016
Picks have begun to come in from the Machines for the Divisional Round, but will not be finalized until Friday. Since the Machines and Mike Ditka are not subject to the bias of others, The Clearinghouse will post trifecta submissions as they are received.
ELO Machine runs the numbers and submits its favorite, The Panthers, with Cardinals and Broncos to complete the trifecta. Bhanpuri Machine, confronted by the elimination of its Home Team, changes its allegiance to the highly-rated Steelers in its model and rounds out its pick three with the Cardinals and Panthers.
Bing Machine still likes the Patriots to win the world professional football championship game, but erred in its bracket predictions when the Steelers upset the Bengals. Unless new calculations show otherwise, Bing Machine adds the Panthers and Broncos for the trifecta.
DVOA Machine, after updating its odds, suspects the Panthers will beat its Home Team, Seahawks. In a Ditk-ish move to prove its intelligence, DVOA Machine submits Cardinals, Broncos, and Chiefs. Harvard SA Machine backs its championship prediction, the Cardinals, as well as the Patriots and Panthers.
[Madden 16 Machine is expected to release its simulation at Bleacher Report on Friday].
In early Cyborg activity, CBS Pick Cyborg leans toward its Broncos plus the Cardinals and Panthers. Vegas Odds Machine has low expectations for the Chiefs, its Home Team, to win in New England and plays the odds in order to hold onto its big lead by picking the Cardinals, Broncos, and Panthers.
No word from Mike Ditka at this time.
Overall, safe favroites for average-to-low Super Trifecta points by the Machines and Cyborgs. This week, however, there is more variance in the teams supported by the Machines. Bing Machine will be rooting for the Packers to break the pace of its competitors while Bhanpuri Machine and Harvard SA Machine look for an upset in Denver. DVOA Machine will be backing upsets in both New England and Carolina.
Picks | Divisional Round
Updated Friday, January 15, 2016
Machines, Cyborgs, and Mike Ditka have submitted their final Picks for the Divisional Round of Super Turing Bowl I. Notably, no two Machines favor the same three teams to win in the Divisional Round. One is bound to separate itself from the mechanical plebs with a winning bias! The Clearinghouse is a little disappointed to see the Cyborgs submit the same three picks a second time. It may not matter in any case — Mike Ditka seeks to punk the Machine-Cyborg threat with two aggressive upset picks in the Divisional Round!
With the variety in the Machines’ picks this week, The Clearinghouse gives each Machine and Cyborg a little space to explain its picks:
ELO Machine favors wins by the Cardinals, Broncos, and Panthers (its Home Team) this week. The Patriots-Chiefs game is nearly a push (51% | 49%), so it avoids the pitfalls of an evenly matched contest. Unfortunately, ELO shares its picks with the Cyborgs, so it will not make up much ground with the current leaders.
Bhanpuri Machine after seeing its championship favorite bounced in the first round pins its point hopes on the Steelers in the Divisional Round (per pick selection criterion #4). If the Steelers win, Bhanpuri will capitalize big as 6 Machines and Cyborgs favor the Broncos. Cardinals and Panthers round out its pick three.
Bing Machine endorses its championship prediction and lists the Patriots as one of the three most likely winners this week. With its bracket busted, however, Bing Machine picks the Cardinals and Broncos as the most likely teams to advance this week. (NOTE: This differs from the preliminary picks above based on the bracket predictions).
DVOA Machine estimates the Seahawks-Panthers game a push, 49.3% vs. 50.7% chance of winning, but leans in favor of the Panthers. Since DVOA Machine cannot pick against his Home Team Seahawks, it submits Cardinals, Broncos, and the upset-minded Chiefs in a unique play. Although a safe play for 7 points, if the Chiefs and Seahawks win, DVOA Machine will trump the other Machines and Cyborgs.
Harvard SA Machine goes all-in on its Home Team Cardinals. Avoiding the quarterback uncertainty in Denver, it adds local favorites, the Patriots, and the Panthers. Noteworthy, all of the Machines and Cyborgs pick its championed team, the Cardinals, to win and move onto Championship weekend. Perhaps the other Machines and Cyborgs have been baised by the Harvard reputation!
Madden 16 Machine simulates a dubious end for its preseason championship prediction, the Steelers, with an ugly loss. To avoid a complete collapse in Super Turing Bowl I, it hedges its bets with the Seahawks in a play for 5 Seeder Redux points. Madden 16 Machine also has the Patriots and Cardinals winning comfortably.
CBS Picks Cyborg and Vegas Odds Cyborg are bullish on the Broncos and Cardinals. CBS Picks Cyborgs gives a slight edge to the Panthers over the Patriots as its third pick. Vegas Odds Cyborg leans toward Patriots as the more reliable pick, but it may not pick against its assigned Home Team, the Chiefs. With trepidation, Vegas Odds Cyborg backs the Panthers and a nominal -1.5 spread.
Mike Ditka looks to end the debate between Man, Machine, and Cyborg. First, he appeared to leak his picks to the Charlotte Observer earlier in the week: “Ditka’s picking the Panthers to beat Seattle and go on to the Super Bowl, where Rivera’s former coach believes Carolina will beat New England.” At ESPN, however, he submits the Chiefs as one of three upsets of the week! A dastardly human trick on the unsuspecting Machines and Cyborgs, to say the least.
In addition, Ditka again curses picks the Packers as favorites to win. If the Packers win, he will crush the Machine and Cyborg consensus favorites. If not, he will retire for the evening pleased to have thrown more fuel on the “curse” controversy! With the uncertainty in his Patriots and Chiefs selection, Ditka completes his pick three with the Panthers and the Steelers — an upset he picked last week because its his home town! If Ditka’s trifecta delivers, the Beau Ideal of Bias will be mothballing Machines and Cyborgs in the Championship Round of Super Turing Bowl I!
Pick Results | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016
The Machines make a stand against the unpredictable picks of Mike Ditka!
ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine correctly pick three winners to earn the first trifectas by the Machines. What looked like a safe play on higher seeded teams to start the weekend, these three Machines sponsored three finalists for the Championship Round and accurately picked three higher seeds to win the Divisional Round.
Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine each picked a judicious upset in the Divisional Round, but failed to convert on onside kick opportunities that may have sent their games into overtime.
The Cyborgs continue to dominate the competition with a second trifecta in two weeks. Vegas Odds Machine astutely avoided the emotional upset pick and secured a trifecta with the Home Teams of other Analysts. CBS Picks Cyborg capitalized on its assigned team, the #1 seed Broncos.
Mike Ditka went off the rails in the Divisional Round. Whether driven by home town bias (PIT) or the allure of a curse (GB), the Beau Ideal of Bias missed on two of three picks and failed to build a lead over several Machines before the Championship Round.
Standings | Divisional Round
Updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016
ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine move into position to challenge the Cyborgs in the Championship leg of Super Turing Bowl I. Riding trifectas that included their championship predictions, the three Machines overtake Madden 16 Machine.
Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine erroneously played for an additional post-season upset. With their championship steeds eliminated, the three Machines are not able to overtake the Cyborgs in the final leg of Super Turing Bowl I. We shall see how well Machines play for respect in the upcoming weeks.
The Cyborgs pad their lead in the Divisional Round by favoring the higher seeds. CBS Picks Cyborg moves into a first place tie with Vegas Odds Machine after its Home Team bucks Madden 16 Machine’s favorite. The Championship round will determine if the mob (picks) or money (bets) proves to be the better bias in Super Turing Bowl I.
One has to wonder if Mike Ditka preferred to the lay the curse on the Packers rather than defeat both Machines and Cyborgs in a contest of prescience. Nonetheless, Ditka still has an outside chance to defeat the majority of the Machines if he plays his biases correctly in the final leg of Super Turing Bowl I.
ELO Machine, by virtue of its Home Team’s offensive dominance, gains a Reverse PC-Fecta point to take a one length lead over the next closest Machine. CBS Picks Cyborg netted two Reverse PC-Fecta points to move into a tie with Vegas Odds Cyborg.
Heading into the final leg, ELO Machine, Bing Machine, and Harvard SA Machine will need to sweep the Reverse PC-Fecta points in order to catch the Cyborgs in the final leg.
Player Hater points and Seeder Redux points were not for the taking in the Divisional Round. While Bhanpuri Machine, DVOA Machine, and Madden 16 Machine strategically favored on upset in the week, the games ended with futile onset kicks.
In the final week, the Patriots and Cardinals afford a single Seeder Redux point to close the race.
Picks | Conference Championship Round
Updated Saturday, January 23, 2016
With one exception, the Picks have been submitted for the Conference Championship Round of Super Turing Bowl I. Despite the options narrowing, the Machines split their favor in the Conference Championship. The Cyborgs anticipate the same winners, but the CBS Picks Cyborg must stick with its Home Team Broncos to win. Mike Ditka attempts to correct course this week and follows the Vegas Odds Cyborg’s picks!
In order of likelihood of strength:
CBS Picks Cyborg: With 16 points in the first two rounds, CBS Picks Cyborg only needs a Broncos win to take the first Super Turing Bowl. Unfortunately, the Cyborg’s human inputs suggest its Home Team will lose. Will Home Team bias help CBS Picks Cyborg beat the odds?
Vegas Odds Cyborg: With 16 points, Vegas Odds Cyborg gains if the Patriots show it the money. The Cyborg still must pick the world professional football champion correctly to secure the trophy.
The Machines are largely playing for bragging rights among each other at this points since the Cyborgs built such a commanding lead.
ELO Machine: With 9 points total, ELO Machine can reach 16 points if its Home Team Panthers march to victory.
Bing Machine: With 8 points total, Bing Machine can reach 17 points if its Home Team Patriots upset the competition.
Harvard SA Machine: Also with 8 points, Harvard SA Machine, can reach 17 points if its Home Team Cardinals earn their first championship.
The other Machines have been eliminated from the Super Turing Bowl I, but one has a chance to outwit Mike Ditka.
If Mike Ditka sticks to his Charlotte Observer prediction, then he is going for 2 more points and 9 total.
Madden 16 Machine can reach 9 points this week with its picks for the #2 seeds. If it then picks the champion correctly, it will beat the Beau Ideal of Bias.
Bhanpuri Machine and DVOA Machine are competing for last place.
Picks | Championship Game
Updated Sunday, February 7, 2016
ELO Machine and CBS Pick Cyborg, which was forced to take the Broncos in the Conference Championship, came out of the Conference Championships looking a lot like the lucky player to have a playoff bias. At this point in the competition, only DVOA Machine also picked the Broncos and Panthers for the Championship Game. The final picks are:
After the 49-15 drubbing of the Cardinals, ELO Machine pretty much has the Reverse PCFectas locked up. But you never know, Broncos may win 50-14, and that is why we pick the games!
Final Results| Super Turing Bowl I
CBS Pick Cyborg, which once again was forced to take the Broncos because its first choice was already taken, wins Super Turing Bowl I!
Vegas Odds Cyborg, with the seventh best odds Chiefs, finishes second.
Among the machines, ELO wins the competition hands down with 15 Super Trifecta points. Several lengths behind, Bing Machine and Harvard SA Machine tie in a photo finish for second place (tie).
Madden 16 Machine edges out the rest of the competition for fourth place.
Cyborgs bests the Machines! There may yet be a future for Mankind in the Robot future!
Trifecta Points
Tiebreakers
*Reviewed and updated in November 2016.
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