With seven Analysts at 3-4 Trifecta points, most Analysts will be able to win the Fibonacci Stakes in Leg 5. This week a base trifecta is worth 3 points and the maximum is 6 points with 3 Fibonacci bonus picks. That means the largest lead anyone can open is 7 points (The Strategist). If an Analyst falls behind by 7 points, the Analyst will be forced to take the same teams in Leg 5 to overtake the leader.
In Leg 5, the base trifecta is worth 5 points and the maximum trifecta is worth 8 points with 3 Fibonacci bonus picks. However, the Slate of Games for Leg 5 pits 6 Home Teams against each other. If two teams from Leg 4 picks by an Analyst play each other in Leg 5, the Analyst will have to change at least one pick and will have a maximum of 7 trifecta points in Leg 5.
Also, beware the Box Out! If two Analysts have the same picks, the Analyst with more points or better tiebreakers blocks the opponent down the homestretch!
Eliminations:
At this time, only Atwork can be eliminated before Leg 5 and only if The Strategist earns 6 points to take a 9 point lead over him.
B-Reezy is in a precarious position if The Strategist takes an 8 point lead, but he may still come from behind if the Stakes ends in a photo finish (tiebreakers).
Every Analyst can win the race. An Analyst can earn all 4 points if they pick their Home Team in a winning trifecta AND also get the offensive and defensive bonus points. Those Analysts in the back half need two or more points to overtake the Big Tuna, which means they will have to take their Home Team to win the PC-Fecta Derby.
Here is the strength of points and tiebreakers from best to worst:
Front runners —
Big Tuna(3 points): Big has the second tiebreaker over all other Analysts except Little Tuna and The Strategist at the moment! His Home Team also has the best point differential per game. He has had no head-to-head competitions this month.
Wise Orangutan (3 points): Wise O. only has one Correct Home Team selection and his team is the third worst in point differential per game. He will lose most tiebreakers, so needs to win outright for the best chance.
If Big Tuna and Wise O. do not earn any points, then…
Middle of the pack —
The Strategist, Little Tuna, and B-Reezy (2 points) Strategist and Little Tuna have two Correct Home Team Selections and positive point differential per game. If their Home Team can pull off one more win they may close the distance on the frontrunners and win by virtue of tiebreakers. B-Reezy needs to take his Home Team and win outright (2+ points) to overtake nearly every other Analyst.
Back Half —
Atwork and Craft Brew (1 point): Both Analysts can win in a photo finish (by tiebreakers) if their Home Teams win big and they select their Team to win. However, the Big Tuna, Strategist, and Little Tuna will gain an edge if they correctly pick their Home Team to win in the Homestretch. Both likely need the offensive point bonus to contend.
The Bookie and Kal Krome (0 points): The Bookie will need to take all four points AND hope that Big Tuna or Wise Orangutan does not earn one point (the Secretariat strategy). Kal Krome is in a similar position, but there is an outside chance he can win a tiebreaker with Big Tuna and Wise Orangutan, if his Home Team wins BIG and the front runners’ teams lose BIGGER.
With only four teams remaining, there are only four possible correct pick twos in the conference championships: PIT-GB, NE-GB, PIT-ATL, NE-ATL.
Five Analysts have been eliminated after the Divisional Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl: B-Reezy, Little Tuna, Kal Krome, Wise Orangutan, and Big Tuna. The most that any of these Analysts can score is 9 points, but they trail the current leader by 10 points.
By rule, the remaining three Analysts have to pick their respective Home Teams to win the conference championships. By current standings, the scenarios before picks are:
The Strategist (14 points): If Pittsburgh wins, the Strategist will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If Atlanta wins the NFC Championship, The Strategist will win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Green Bay wins also, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III likely will be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Pittsburgh loses, she may be able to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if Atlanta wins against Green Bay… but only if she suffers the humiliation of picking New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
The Bookie (13 points): If Green Bay wins, the Bookie will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. IF New England wins the AFC Championship, The Bookie will earn all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points for 8 points total and win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Pittsburgh wins, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III may be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Green Bay loses, she still has an outside chance to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if New England beats Pittsburgh and Atlanta — and, if The Strategist does not pick New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
Note on The Strategist vs. The Bookie — Should their Home Teams lose, The Strategist still can gain 2 Seeder Redux points by correctly picking Green Bay to win, but an Atlanta pick and win earns nothing more for The Strategist. On the other hand, a correct pick by The Bookie for Pittsburgh earns 2 Seeder Redux points or for New England earns 3 Player Hater points. Despite trailing by one point, The Bookie has more paths to victory.
Atwork (7 points): Atwork has one clear path to victory in Super Trifecta Bowl III. He must pick Atlanta and Atlanta must win. New England must also win so that he earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points and blocks The Strategist from sprinting down the homestretch. If he wisely picks New England to win (given the scenario), he will earn 3 Player Hater points for a total of 9 points this weekend. Then, in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, Atlanta must defeat New England so that he earns the trifecta and one Seeder Redux point for a total of 11 points in the Championship Round. With 18 points total, The Clearinghouse estimates (with 99% certainty) that The Bookie and The Strategist will not be able to keep pace with Atwork.
Scores at End of the Third Quarter in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
Visitors: Rules for the Seeders’ Cup Playoff-Caliber Game can be found here.
Analysts! In the final calculations of the Seeders’ Cup, all Analysts (see #7 below) remain in contention for The Winner’s Circle.
Per the Slate of Games playoff scenarios, an Analyst could score 18-20 points with a trifecta that includes Oakland, Seattle, and Detroit/Green Bay if all the pieces fall into place. For that to happen, though, Oakland and Seattle must win, Atlanta must lose, and the Analysts will have to pick correctly between Detroit and Green Bay.
Wise Orangutan leads going into the fourth quarter, but he likely will need at least a Field Goal and additional scores to win the playoff-caliber game.
Beware the Box Out! If two Analyst have the same three picks, the Analysts with less points has no way to overtake the Analyst with more points in the final quarter!
Below are the most likely scenarios for the fourth quarter of the Seeders’ Cup Playoff-Caliber Game:
Wise Orangutan (22 points) takes a 6-point into the fourth quarter over his closest challenger. He needs 15 points (a TD and two additional scores) to dominate in the fourth quarter. He is tied for the lead in Tiebreakers and most Analysts will need his Home Team to lose in order to beat him in overtime.
Big Tuna (16 points) is in a strong position as Home Team can clinch a bye-week (4 points) with a win and possibly a home-field advantage (5 points) if New England loses to Miami. A field goal with his Home Team and one other playoff-clinching team will score at least 9 points in the fourth quarter. A touchdown with his Home Team and two additional scores will give him at least 15 points. He also has a strong tiebreaking portfolio if the Playoff-Caliber Game goes to overtime..
The Bookie, Kal Krome, and Atwork (14 points) will need Big Tuna and Wise Orangutan to stumble slightly and also prove clutch in the fourth quarter. A field goal with two additional scores will give each enough to score 23 points. If Big Tuna or Wise Orangutan score a field goal, than these three Analysts will likely need a touchdown and two additional scores (two playoff-clinch picks) to win.
Little Tuna (13 points), The Strategist (11 points), and B-Reezy (9 points) are down by more than a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter. Each need a touchdown and additional scores to take the lead. A field goal with two additional scores will give each enough to score 23 points. If Little Tuna can take the game to overtime, she has the tiebreakers to win the Playoff-Caliber Game. The Strategist and B-Reezy, on the other hand, need to score and score often to win the game.
Note: Again, an Analyst could score 18-20 points with a trifecta that includes Oakland, Seattle, and Detroit/Green Bay if all the pieces fall into place. For that to happen, though, Oakland and Seattle must win, Atlanta must lose, and the Analysts will have to pick correctly between Detroit and Green Bay.
Visitors: Rules for the Fibonacci Stakes can be found in the menu under Quaternary Crown.
In the final calculations of the Fibonacci Stakes, allall but one Analyst (see #7 below) remains in contention for The Winner’s Circle. With 5 base trifecta points and 3 bonus trifecta points at stake in Leg 5, an Analyst can come from behind to win with 8 points and as few as 5 points.
B-Reezy has positioned himself for the homestretch, but needs a trifecta with at least one Fibonacci bonus to cross the finish line unchallenged.
Beware the Box Out! If an Analyst with more points has the same three picks, there is no way to overtake the Analyst in the lead to start the homestretch!
Below are the most likely scenarios for the final leg of the Fibonacci Stakes:
B-Reezy (8 points) shows the lead with three full lengths between him and his closest challengers. He needs only 6 points (one same pick from Leg 4) to put the rest of the field out of reach. He has the weakest Tiebreakers, however, and will lose in every head-to-head tie with the other Analysts.
The Bookie (5 points) has the strongest Tiebreaker portfolio and will beat nearly every other Analyst in a tie (she cannot tie with Little Tuna). She can run for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4) and race only B-Reezy or Atwork at the finish line. If she runs for 5 points (no Fibonacci bonuses), she could let Wise Orangutan slip past on the outside rail.
Atwork (5 points) has a weak Tiebreaker set, so his best chance is for B-Reezy and The Bookie to falter while picking up a trifecta of 7 points in value. Big Tuna chases one length behind, but the fish has a weaker Tiebreaker set at the moment.
Big Tuna (4 points) is the first of the Analysts who can win only ifB-Reezy fails to get a trifecta. In addition, he has a weak Tiebreaker portfolio and may need to put clear distance between himself and the last challengers.
Wise Orangutan (3 points) has a modest Tiebreaker resume and can beat Big Tuna and Atwork at the line. He needs B-Reezy and The Bookie to spit the bit in the homestretch if he hopes to stand in the winners’ circle.
Little Tuna, Kal Krome, and The Strategist (0 points) need all of the above Analysts to fail to Pick Three and then also to Let ‘Em Ride (take the same three teams as last week) in order to win. If one or more end in a tie with B-Reezy, the strength of Tiebreakers as they stand currently comes in this order: Little Tuna, Kal Krome, The Strategist, and B-Reezy.
Three Analysts had both the Cowboys and Vikings last week. Those Analysts have to choose between the two teams or two other teams. That limits their point totals for this week to 7 points — effectively eliminating The Strategist. The Bookie and Atwork, currently contesting second place, are also limited to 7 points this week and 12 points total in the Fibonacci Stakes.
Will B-Reezy’s “good trip” come to a sudden halt or will the wily long-strider claim a Crown with his season-long strategy?!!?
***** SCENARIO UPDATE AFTER PICKS AND TNF *****
The Strategist was eliminated before the homestretch as she could not Let ‘ Em Ride (pick the same three teams) out of the far turn (Leg 4).
B-Reezy boxes out Little Tuna and eliminates her from the Fibonacci Stakes. Both Analysts have the same Picks, so they advance or fall back together.
After another dramatic ending that is ill-measured by the W-L column, Atwork fails to advance on B-Reezy down the homestretch after the Norsemen struggle to plunder the Texas Marshals. He has been eliminated.
Five Analysts remain in contention heading into the early games on Sunday….
***** SUNDAY EARLY GAME SCENARIOS *****
Game of the Day: Bills at Raiders
All of the Analysts not named B-Reezy who picked the Seahawks need the Bills to beat the Raiders. If the Raiders win, B-Reezy boxes out the field with the exception of The Bookie.B-Reezy’s (and Little Tuna’s) homestretch run of course hinges on the Raiders win and/or Seahawks loss. The Bookie right now has the open lane since she did not take the Seahawks, but her Dolphins must beat the Ravens at home.
***** SUNDAY LATE GAME SCENARIOS *****
1. Big Tuna’s and The Strategist’s last ditch Ram-ming down the homestretch is gunned down by the Patriots.
2. The Bookie faces mortality as the Ravens deal a deathblow to the Dolphins in the final push.
Only one Analyst appears to be within Charg(er)-ing distance of the frontrunner B-Reezy. B-Reezy can box out Wise Orangutan with a win by the Raiders, or he can trot across the finish line with a loss by the Chragers or the Seahawks. Wise O. needs a good trip down the homestretch with wins by the Chargers, Bills, and Seahawks if he hopes to close the distance!
***** SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME SCENARIOS *****
B-Reezy continues his sprint to the finish line of the Fibonacci Stakes. The Raiders secured his quote, dominance, unquote, over the league in Year 3 after the Wise Orangutan trips over his Home Team selection from the 1978-79 professional football season (!).
Heading into the SNF, B-Reezy wins with a Seahawks victory or loss, while Little Tuna shows legs and may come from behind to place in the Fibonacci Stakes if the Seahawks win.
Courtesy of CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Bowl Which Shall Not Be Named for Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts must pick from the two games and may NOT pick against their own Home Team. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
The above game is the completion of the Championship Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl. A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 point in the Championship Round.
The two world professional football teams playing The Bowl Which Shall Not Be Named are the #1 seeds in the playoff tournament. The only points to be earned by Analysts without a Home Team in The Unmentionable Bowl can only earn points from a correct trifecta.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship Game may still collect 3 Reverse PC Fecta points for highest offensive score and lowest defensive score allowed.
No Player Hater, Seeder Redux, or Playoff Victory points are awarded for the outcome of the Championship Game.
Maximum Points Possible
One. Only one. Only if you picked the two teams in the Conference Championship Round.
Eliminated Analysts
Everyone except The Bookie has been eliminated from contention in Super Trifecta Bowl II. Pick with pride, pick with honor, pick to start the new season well.
Contesting Analysts – Scenarios
The Bookie wins with 19 points if the Broncos score less than 49 points or allow the Panthers to score 15 or more points.
The Bookie wins with 16 points if the Broncos score 50 or more points and allow the Panthers to score 14 or less points.
Championship Game Picks
You are going to do it. No matter if it does not matter. You are always as smart as the last game you picked.
Required Picks in the Championship Game to Be a Good Sport in Super Trifecta Bowl II
Courtesy of CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl II
Analysts must pick from the two games and may NOT pick against their own Home Team. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 point in the Championship Round.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship Round will collect 3 Playoff Victory points if their Home Team wins. (NOTE: Analysts with Home Team remaining in the race MUST pick their Home Team in this leg).
The Analysts who correctly pick Home Teams in the Championship Round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Championship Round, there are no Player Hater points available because the last un-sponsored team has been eliminated from the professional football league playoffs.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Cardinals (1 point) and Patriots (1 point).
Maximum Points Possible
The highest-seeded teams (1 or 2) have progressed to the Championship Round and four Analysts have had their steeds eliminated. The maximum points possible are determined by the situation of the Analysts after the Divisional Round.
In order to win, The Bookie’s strong showing in the first two legs forces all other Analysts to pick against the Panthers: if the Panthers win the conference championships this week, The Bookie wins Super Trifecta Bowl II with 16+ points.
With these conditions in mind, the most points Analysts may earn are:
Team eliminated: 1-3 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the Analyst picks a #2 seed (Patriots or Cardinals) to win the world football professional championship, 2 Seeder Redux points are possible based on opponents. The maximum Seeder Redux points may be earned in one of three ways:
1. Pick Patriots and Cardinals to win Conference games.
2. Pick Patriots and Panthers to win this week, then the Patriots to beat the Panthers in the world football championship game.
3. Pick Cardinals and Broncos to win this week, then the Cardinals to beat the Broncos in the world football championship game.
Analysts with #2 Seeds: 4-9 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the 2 seed wins, the Analyst earns 3 Playoff Victory points and 1 Seeder Redux point. The Analyst also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. Both Analysts must pick against the Panthers in the conference championship to win.
Analysts with #1 Seeds: 3-8 points. Base trifecta is worth 1 point. If the 1 seed wins, the Analyst earns 3 Playoff Victory points. The Analyst also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. Big Tuna must pick against the Panthers to block The Bookie and earn 1 Seeder Redux point with a Cardinal win. The Bookie may pick the Patriots for a Seeder Redux point, but is not required in order to win.
Eliminated Analysts
With the top-seeded teams owned by Analysts, the outcome of Super Trifecta Bowl II once again favors the Analysts with Home Teams in contention or Analysts who accumulated points in the early rounds.
Since only three points may be earned by Analysts whose Home Teams lost in earlier rounds, Kal Krome (7) and B-Reezy (4) are eliminated.
Little Tuna, with the #2 seed Patriots, may earn 9 more points riding her Home Team to another world professional football championship – but it will not be enough for her to overtake The Bookie. The Bookie has 13 points and 3 base trifecta points (first tiebreaker). The most Little Tuna will earn in the Championship Round is 13 points and 1 base trifecta point.
Therefore, Little Tuna has been eliminated from Super Trifecta Bowl II and a new champion will be crowned in 2016. Nonetheless, she is in prime position to play the spoiler in the final leg and show or place to end the race.
Contesting Analysts – Scenarios
In order of strength, the the Analysts in contention for Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
The Bookie (13 points): The Bookie must pick the Panthers per the rules and if the Panthers win, she earns a minimum of 3 Playoff Victory points – enough to beat all other Analysts. She can reach up to 21 points total by earning Reverse PC Fecta points, correctly picking the Panthers’ opponent, and correctly picking the winner of the world professional football championship game in February.
Minds Blank (12 points): If the Panthers lose, the mindless one will earn 1 Seeder Redux point if she picks the Cardinals. If she correctly picks the winner of Broncos-Patriots AND correctly picks the world professional football championship game she earns at least 14 points to force a determination by tiebreakers. Blank may earn up to 15 points provided she picks one of the #2 seeds to become the champion.
Wise Orangutan (10 points): If the Panthers lose, the wise one earns 3 Playoff Victory points and becomes eligible for Reverse PC-Fecta points. If he earns at least two Reverse PC-Fecta points, he forces a tie with Minds Blank at the worst. If he wins all three Reverse PC Fecta points, he wins. Alternatively, he may earn two more points from a winning trifecta in which the Cardinals win the world professional football championship.
The Strategist (11 points): If the Panthers lose, the strategic one will earn 1 Seeder Redux point if she picks the Cardinals. If she correctly picks the winner of Broncos-Patriots AND correctly picks the world professional football championship game, she may earn up to 14 points provided she picks a #2 seed to become the champion. She must pick a different championship game or different champion than Minds Blank and Wise Orangutan in order to avoid the Box Out – see “Teams Eliminated” options above.
Big Tuna (8 points): If the Panthers lose, the fishy one earns 3 Playoff Victory points with a Broncos victory and 1 Seeder Redux (for picking against the Panthers). He also becomes eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If he earns at least one Reverse PC-Fecta points, he reaches 13 points to tie The Bookie and forces tiebreakers in the final week. If he earns all three Reverse PC-Fecta points, he reaches 15 points this week and will win Super Trifecta Bowl II with 16 points if the Broncos win the world professional football championship game.
Championship Picks
By rule, the Analysts must select their Home Teams in the Divisional Round. In addition, only The Bookie can build a trifecta with the Panthers to win Super Trifecta Bowl II. All other Analysts must pick against the Panthers.
The required Picks to win are:
Required Picks to win Super Trifecta Bowl II in the Championship Round
For the final leg of the Seeders Cup, all eight Analysts remain in contention. First, here are the potential seeder points for the week with a team win:
Panthers = 4 points with a win.
Cardinals = 4 points with a win and Panthers loss.
Packers or Vikings = 2 points with a win (they play each other).
Patriots = 4 points with a win.
Broncos = 3 points with a win.
Broncos = 4 points with a win and Patriots loss.
Jets = 1 point with a win.
So, 11 seeder points (12 total) can be earned with a winning trifecta if the Broncos, Patriots, and Panthers or Cardinals win. Therefore, all Analysts are technically in the race before the picks (and box outs).
In order of strength, the scenarios are:
1a. Little Tuna wins if nobody picks correctly. With a 5 point lead on the closest contender, LT needs 7 trifecta points to win outright and 6 trifecta points to force a tiebreaker with the next closet Analyst provided the Pats win. Target seeder points = 6.
1b. If the Patriots lose and Little Tuna does not earn any more points (11 total), these Analysts can win a tiebreaker over Little Tuna provided they correctly pick their Home Team to win: Kal Krome, Strategist, Bookie, and Minds Blank.
2. Kal Krome (6 trifecta points) has a chance to come from behind to win outright. If Little Tuna falters, Kal only needs 6 trifecta points to overtake LT and 5 to tie. To be certain to stay ahead the next closest contender (The Bookie – 5 points), Kal will need 12 trifecta points. Target seeder points = 5 to 11.
3. The Bookie in third place only needs 7 trifecta points to beat LT and 6 total to tie LT if she fails to gain a trifecta in the final leg. To be sure to stay ahead of the next closest contender (The Strategist – 3 points), The Bookie needs 11 trifecta points. Target seeder points = 6 to 10.
4. The Strategist needs 9 points to take the lead if the three leaders fail to earn points and 8 points to tie Little Tuna. Wise Orangutan trails with 2 points, so Strategist would need 12 points to ensure she stays ahead of the orange one. Target seeder points = 8 to 11.
5. If the four leaders falter, Wise Orangutan needs 9 points to tie Little Tuna and win the race due to the first tiebreaker (Jets beat Pats!) regardless if the Pats win this week. To stay ahead of the final three Analysts, Wise Orangutan needs a minimum of 11 points. Target seeder points = 8 to 10.
6a. Minds Blank has an option to go for 11 points with her Home Team to tie Little Tuna (provided LT does not earn a trifecta). If the Pats win and Packers win, Minds Blank will tie Little Tuna in trifecta points and Correct Home Team Selections. The Seeders Cup will come down to the Seeder Points earned by the Analysts. If the Pats lose, Blank wins on Home Team Selections. Target seeder points = 10 points.
6b. Minds Blank, Big Tuna, and B-Reezy need 12 points to win the Seeders’ Cup outright if all other Analysts fail to earn points. In order to make 12 points, these three Analysts need the Patriots to win (4), the Broncos to win (3), and then need to pick correctly between the Panthers or Cardinals (4 points) for the NFC home field advantage. Target seeder points = 11 points.
Example: Wise Orangutan only wants to tie Little Tuna and hope that others fail to earn points. He selects Jets (1 seeder), Broncos (3 seeders), and Patriots (4 seeder points). If the three teams win, he gets 1 + 3 + 4 seeder points and 1 point for the trifecta for a total of 9 points. With 9 points in the final Leg, he ties Little Tuna with 11 points total and wins the Seeders Cup due to the Head-to-Head tiebreaker (did I mention that the Jets beat the Pats!).
In the final calculations of the Fibonacci Stakes, all of the Analysts remain in contention for the winner’s circle. With 5 base trifecta points and 3 bonus trifecta points at stake in Leg 5, an Analyst can come from behind to win with 7 or 8 points.
Three leaders, however, have positioned themselves for the stretch run. Below are the most likely scenarios for the final turn of the Fibonacci Stakes:
The Bookie holds the inside rail over B-Reezy and Kal Krome. If she goes for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4), she will reach 14 points and hold the tiebreaker over B-Reezy. If she goes for 7 points (2 of 3 same picks from Leg 4 including the Panthers), only B-Reezy can pass her with an 8 point trifecta. If she goes for 6 points, B-Reezy can pass her with a Bears-included trifecta or Kal Krome can overtake her with a 7 point trifecta.
B-Reezy can run for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4) and distance himself from the other Analysts (except Bookie). With a 7 point trifecta including the Bears, B-Reezy will hold the edge over Kal Krome. If B-Reezy drops the Bears or goes for a 6 point trifecta (1 same team), then Kal Krome can overtake him with a Seahawks-led trifecta.
Kal Krome’s best chance is for B-Reezy and The Bookie to falter while picking up a trifecta of any value. Having taken the Bengals last week, Kal can only notch 7 points in the final leg for a total of 12 points. Any trifecta combination, however, maintains his lead over all lower-positioned Analysts.
Little Tuna, with 1 point currently, also took the Bengals last week. She may only earn 7 points to finish with 8 points. In a tie with other Analysts at 8 points, only Big Tuna can beat her (head-to-head tiebreaker due to Broncos over Pats). Otherwise, her 3 Home Team picks give her a comfortable lead over the other straggling Analysts.
Big Tuna, Minds Blank, and The Strategist are in position to carry the same three teams for 8 total points in the Stakes. None of these Analysts currently have a Home Team selection, so Minds Blank has a minor edge since she can take her Packers. Big Tuna and The Strategist did not take their Home Teams in Leg 4 and would sacrifice a trifecta point (for 7 possible total) if they make the switch to their Home Team in the final leg.
Wise Orangutan needs a whole lotta losers in order to win the Stakes. Having picked the Bengals in Leg 4, Orangutan can finish with only 7 points total.
In a tie for first place with 6 points, The Bookie and B-Reezy hold the edge over most other Analysts by virtue of Home Team selections and head-to-head wins. If the Panthers lose and Bears win, B-Reezy has an opportunity to overtake The Bookie in the final leg based on Bonus Picks (third tiebreaker).
So, if The Bookie, B-Reezy, and/or Kal Krome earn a trifecta, one of the three Analysts will win the Stakes. If the three leaders stumble, the advantages for the five laggards is roughly Little Tuna, Big Tuna/Minds Blank/The Strategist (depending on picks), and lastly the Orangutan.
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