Scenarios
The Seeders’ Cup IX
To be in contention in Leg 4 of The Seeders’ Cup IX, Analysts must be within a point spread determined by the number of *bonus* Seeder points still available — unfortunately, that number is not known before Leg 3 is complete. Bills and Bengals play each other, so either the AFC Homefield Advantage (+7) or AFC North Division Title (+3) will be available in Leg 4.
There will be at least one other Division Title (+3) open: Jaguars or Titans in the AFC South. Minimum difference with the leaders will be 12 points if Bills win and 16 points if Bengals win. If neither Homefield Advantage is secured, then Analysts will need to be only 22 points within the leader after Leg 3.
Analyst of the Year IX
To be in contention in Week 18, an Analyst has to be within 1 Trifecta AND 3 Correct Picks of the leader after Week 17. We are down to six Analysts for the Win. With two weeks remaining, here are the mathematical possibilities for the Win for all six Analysts….
Bookie For the Win…
Bookie (8 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks) needs just 1 Trifecta and 4 Correct Picks to control her destiny in the final two weeks. No other Analyst can get to 9 Trifectas and 40 Correct Picks. She can Win outright in Week 17 with a Trifecta AND IF both The Strategist and Big Tuna bust (2 Trifecta lead with 1 Week left).
Anything less, and then…
The Strategist for the Win…
The Strategist (7 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks) could tie or beat Bookie with 9 Trifectas and 39 Correct Picks to end the season. She needs two straight Trifectas to control her destiny over all other Analysts with the exception of Bookie. If The Strategist finishes at 8 Trifectas, the other five contenders can surpass her on Correct Picks.
Big Tuna for the Win…
Big Tuna (7 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) can reach 9 Trifectas and 37 Correct Picks with two straight Trifectas. If Bookie adds one Trifecta in Week 17 or 18, Bookie will beat Big Tuna on Correct Picks (her minimum will be 39 Correct Picks). He also needs The Strategist to earn no more than 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks. If Big Tuna finishes at 8 Trifectas, the other five contenders can surpass him on Correct Picks.
Roxy Trot for the Win…
Roxy Trot (6 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks) has as many Correct Picks as Bookie – the first tiebreaker. If she closes the season with two straight Trifectas, Roxy Trot will have 8 Trifectas and 42 Correct Picks: enough to outscore all three current leaders and the (below) challengers if the season ends at 8 Trifectas. If Roxy Trot adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, she is eliminated from the Win.
Jimmy V for the Win…
Jimmy V (6 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks) can end the season with 8 Trifectas and 39 Correct Picks. If Bookie earns 0 Trifectas and fewer than 4 Correct Picks, he can overtake her. Jimmy V also needs The Strategist and Big Tuna to finish with less than 9 Trifectas AND Roxy Trot to finish with less than 8 Trifectas. If Jimmy V adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, he is eliminated from the Win.
Wreck It Ralph for the Win…
Wreck It Ralph (6 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) can finish with 8 Trifectas and 37 Correct Picks. He then needs 1) Bookie to get no more than 1 Correct Pick in the final two Weeks; The Strategist to get no more than 1 Trifecta and 3 Correct Picks; Big Tuna to get no more than 1 Trifecta and 5 Correct Picks; and Jimmy V to get no more than 1 Trifecta. If Wreck It Ralph adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, he is eliminated from the Win.
For Place or Show…
Bookie is in contention for Place or Show no matter the results in Week 17. All other Analysts above remain in contention for Place or Show with a Trifecta in Week 17. Analysts with 5 or more Trifectas entering Week 17 can still Place or Show with a Trifecta AND either The Strategist or Big Tuna busts (remains at 7 Trifectas).
For the Claim…
Woody at 4 Trifectas and 30 Correct Picks is the current cut for a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX (13th place). She can finish the season at 6 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks (the current 4th best record!): so that is the current minimum to be certain of retaining a Claim to a Home Team during the playoffs. But, all Analysts below 6 Trifectas would have to end the season with 2 Trifectas for that to happen!
So, if Woody gets 1 Trifecta in the final two Legs, the target to secure a Claim will more likely be 5 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks for the back of the field. Ten Analysts have 3 to 5 Trifectas after Week 16 and can reach that mark. In any case (for example, all Analysts bust in Week 17), to remain in contention for a Claim in Week 18, Analysts need to be within 1 Trifecta and 3 Correct Picks of the Analyst in 13th place after Week 17!
The only Analyst with no hope of a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX based on Analyst of the Year IX results is Atwork.
