Author: The Clearinghouse

PC-Fecta Derby IV | Week 1 Picks

The Analysts picks are in:

The Bookie: Bengals/Steelers/Cowboys
The Big Tuna: Raiders/Panthers/Falcons
The Little Tuna: Cowboys/Steelers/Packers
Wise Orangutan: Cardinals/Steelers/Panthers
The Strategist: Panthers/Bengals/Steelers
Kal Krome: Seahawks/49ers/Falcons
B-Reezy: Steelers/Panthers/Raiders
Atwork: Packers/Steelers/Falcons
Craft Brew: Steelers/Cardinals/Falcons

Welcome Craft “TheCrew” Brew!

Starting next week we will “Roast” one analyst each week.

After three seasons of bottling up our feelings for one another it’s time to let it out!

Next week we will “roast” our beloved two time Super Trifecta Bowl Trophy winner The Bookie. This year she’s going for the trophy trifecta.
I know this will be a difficult one but with next weeks picks include a snarky one liner. Subject to censorship. Lets keep this clean.

And the race is on!!🐴

The Results Are In:

Four trifectas in the first leg of the PC-Fecta Derby!

Big Tuna seeks to reclaim his Crown and scores three trifecta points in Leg 1 of the PC-Fecta Derby IV (1 base plus 2 offense bonus points).

Little Tuna desperately wants to prove she can win without the Cheatriots and spurs her Cowboys defense to a decisive victory. She holds second coming out of the first turn (1 base plus 1 defensive point).

Atwork gains his first trifecta of the year (1 point). Despite a strong showing on defense, Atwork’s Packers could not pull down the bonus point.

B-Reezy puts the other Analysts on notice that he will be vigorously defending his trophy this year after earning his first trifecta (1 point).

Atwork leads B-Reezy by a head among tiebreaker by virtue of correctly picking his Packers to win.

The rest of the field is off to a slow start, including the usual suspects (The Bookie and Wise Orangutan).

 

The Bookie: Bengals/Steelers/Cowboys
The Big Tuna: Raiders/Panthers/Falcons* (3 points)
The Little Tuna: Cowboys/Steelers/Packers* (2 points) 
Wise Orangutan: Cardinals/Steelers/Panthers
The Strategist: Panthers/Bengals/Steelers
Kal Krome: Seahawks/49ers/Falcons
B-Reezy: Steelers/Panthers/Raiders* (1 point)
Atwork: Packers/Steelers/Falcons* (1 point)
Craft Brew: Steelers/Cardinals/Falcons

Top teams among trifecta winners:

Top offensive team (+2): Raiders (26 points!)

Top defensive team (+1): Cowboys (3 points)

Final scores.

 

 

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PC-Fecta Derby IV | Slate of Games

The Entrants

The Analysts have selected their Home Teams to start the new season and the entrants for PC-Fecta Derby IV are:

PC-Fecta Derby IV | Slate of Analysts
Analysts and Home Teams for the PC-Fecta Derby IV

Slate of Games

PC-Fecta Derby IV | Slate of Games
Slate of Games for the PC-Fecta Derby IV

The slate of games for PC-Fecta Derby IV includes five head-to-head competitions this month (first tiebreaker)! Leg 3, the far turn, looks to be a brutal stretch as three games feature head-to-head competitions: Craft Brew vs. B-Reezy (the rook vs. the champ!), The Bookie vs. Atwork (Super Trifecta Bowl III rematch!), and Little Tuna vs. Wise Orangutan (grudge match!). Atwork is fixin’ to bring down the competition all month long with three head-to-head competitions total beginning in week 1, hosting Kal Krome, the week 3 rematch with The Bookie, and hosting B-Reezy in week 4.

Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are several featured games: two Thursday nights, (all) four Sunday nights, and one Monday night.

No bye weeks this year during week 4.

Picks

Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick their own sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win, but *bonus* trifecta points are won only if Analysts include the Home Team in a winning trifecta. See the Derby Rules for more.

Email three picks in private to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, September 9.

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World Football Trifecta Championship 2017-18

WFTL Season IV Preparations

Holds and Releases

To start the new season, the Analysts made the following decisions regarding the Home Teams they held at the end of the regular season:

Little Tuna | Cowboys | Hold
The Strategist | Rams | Release
The Bookie | Ravens | Release
Big Tuna | Raiders | Hold
Wise Orangutan | Chiefs | Release
Kal Krome | Seahawks | Hold
B-Reezy | Lions | Release
Atwork | Vikings | Release

In addition, an new Analyst has joined the competition under the nom de guerre, Craft Brew!

Home Team Selections

Craft Brew had the honor of the first pick as a new Analysts, while the returning Analysts picked in order of their finish for Analyst of the Year III (worst to best):

1) Craft Brew | Steelers
1) The Strategist | Panthers
3) Atwork | Packers
4) The Bookie | Dolphins (scratch) | Bengals
5) Wise Orangutan | Cardinals
6) B-Reezy | Bears

Riders Up!

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Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round

The Picks Are In

See the scenarios for the final three Analysts of the competition before the first two games of the Championship Round….

Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Picks in the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III

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Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Scenarios

With only four teams remaining, there are only four possible correct pick twos in the conference championships: PIT-GB, NE-GB, PIT-ATL, NE-ATL.

Five Analysts have been eliminated after the Divisional Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl: B-Reezy, Little Tuna, Kal Krome, Wise Orangutan, and Big Tuna. The most that any of these Analysts can score is 9 points, but they trail the current leader by 10 points.

By rule, the remaining three Analysts have to pick their respective Home Teams to win the conference championships. By current standings, the scenarios before picks are:

The Strategist (14 points): If Pittsburgh wins, the Strategist will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If Atlanta wins the NFC Championship, The Strategist will win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Green Bay wins also, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III likely will be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Pittsburgh loses, she may be able to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if Atlanta wins against Green Bay… but only if she suffers the humiliation of picking New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!

The Bookie (13 points): If Green Bay wins, the Bookie will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. IF New England wins the AFC Championship, The Bookie will earn all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points for 8 points total and win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Pittsburgh wins, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III may be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Green Bay loses, she still has an outside chance to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if New England beats Pittsburgh and Atlanta — and, if The Strategist does not pick New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!

Note on The Strategist vs. The Bookie — Should their Home Teams lose, The Strategist still can gain 2 Seeder Redux points by correctly picking Green Bay to win, but an Atlanta pick and win earns nothing more for The Strategist. On the other hand, a correct pick by The Bookie for Pittsburgh earns 2 Seeder Redux points or for New England earns 3 Player Hater points. Despite trailing by one point, The Bookie has more paths to victory.

Atwork (7 points): Atwork has one clear path to victory in Super Trifecta Bowl III. He must pick Atlanta and Atlanta must win. New England must also win so that he earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points and blocks The Strategist from sprinting down the homestretch. If he wisely picks New England to win (given the scenario), he will earn 3 Player Hater points for a total of 9 points this weekend. Then, in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, Atlanta must defeat New England so that he earns the trifecta and one Seeder Redux point for a total of 11 points in the Championship Round. With 18 points total, The Clearinghouse estimates (with 99% certainty) that The Bookie and The Strategist will not be able to keep pace with Atwork.

 

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Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games

With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games | Championship Round
The Slate of Games for the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)

Analysts must pick from the two games in the conference championships. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Championship round must take against their Home Team.

As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:

Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)

Trifecta Points

A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 points in the Championship round for all Analysts.

Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship round will earn 3 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins.

Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Championship round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).

In the Championship Round, New England can earn 3 Player Hater points against each Home Team played in the round (max = 2 games).

The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win in the conference championships: Pittsburgh (2 points) and Packers (2 points). World football championship Seeder Redux will be determined after the conference championships.

NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 2 Seeder Redux points (2 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 2 Seeder Redux points, 3 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible).

Probabilities

Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.

Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.

Upsets by Away Teams (Lower Seeds)
Upsets by Away Teams (Lower Seeds), 2002-2014

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Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round

Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
Standings after the Divisional Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III

The three Analysts with new Home Team selections to start the postseason control their destinies headed into the Championship Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl.

The Strategist (14) makes her move down the backstretch with a trifecta, Home Team win, 2 Reverse PC-Fecta points, and 4 Seeder Redux points! She takes a one-point lead into the far turn.

The Bookie (13) continues her sprint with a trifecta, (unlikely) Home Team win with 3 Seeder Redux points.

Atwork (7) gives chase in third with a Home Team win and 1 Reverse PC-Fecta point. He can take the Super Trifecta Bowl with an unlikely professional football championship by his Home Team in Atlanta!

The rest of the field is in dire straights headed into the final turn. Big Tuna (4), with 3 Base trifecta points, is in the best position provided he can end in a points tie with Atwork.

The Clearinghouse is still calculating win scenarios to determine if Wise Orangutan, Kal Krome, B-Reezy, and Little Tuna remain in the competition at the final stretch.

No un-owned teams played an Analyst’s Home Team so there were no Player Hater points to be won in the divisional round. The Patriots progressed, however, and can score 6 Player Hater points in the Championship Round.

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Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round

The Picks Are In

Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
Picks in the Divisional Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III

The Pick Results Are In

The Bookie and The Strategist net their second trifectas of the postseason to move ahead of the competition.

Atwork and Little Tuna pick up two Correct Picks including their Home Teams. Big Tuna also picks two correctly.

The rest of the stumbled through the Divisional Round as their Home Teams faltered.

Pick Results | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
Pick Results after the Divisional Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)

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Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games

With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games | Divisional Round
The Slate of Games for the Divisional Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)

Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team, but do not have to pick that game.

As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:

Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)

Trifecta Points

A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.

Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Divisional round will earn 2 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).

Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Divisional round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).

In the Divisional Round, there are no Player Hater points possible (the two un-owned teams remaining play each other this week).

The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Texans (3 points), Steelers (1 point), Packers (3 points), and Seahawks (1 point).

NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 2 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible). If The Bookie does not include the Packers in her trifecta picks, a victory by the Packers will yield only the Playoff Victory point (2 total).

Upset Probabilities

Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.

Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.

Upsets by Away Teams (Lower Seeds)
Upsets by Away Teams (Lower Seeds), 2002-2014

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Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Wildcard Round

Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Wildcard Round
Standings after the Wildcard Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III

 

The Bookie (6) enters the far stretch with a two length lead over The Strategist (4). Only one length behind her (3), Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Atwork give chase. B-Reezy and Wise O. (1 each) struggle to make the first turn. Little Tuna (0) has not noticed the gates have opened!

In the tiebreakers, Big, Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get base trifectas (3). Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get Playoff Victories (1) with their Home Teams.

The Bookie takes the offensive PC-Fecta (1), while Kal takes the defensive PC-Fecta (2). B-Reezy, Wise O., and Bookie net a Player Hater (1).

NONE of the playoff road teams won in the wildcard round this year, so there were no Seeder Redux points to be won! Last year, all of the road teams won.

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