Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team, but do not have to pick that game.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Divisional round will earn 2 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Divisional round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Divisional Round, there are no Player Hater points possible (the two un-owned teams remaining play each other this week).
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Texans (3 points), Steelers (1 point), Packers (3 points), and Seahawks (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 2 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible). If The Bookie does not include the Packers in her trifecta picks, a victory by the Packers will yield only the Playoff Victory point (2 total).
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
