November 2017 - World Football Trifecta League

Scenarios | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 5

Fibonacci Stakes Leg 4 Scenarios:

Current Standings

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 4 — Standings after Leg 4 of Fibonacci Stakes IV

Scenarios:

As we thought last week, no Analyst has been eliminated in the Fibonacci Stakes yet… The base Trifecta is worth 5 points and with 3 Fibonacci bonuses an Analyst can earn 8 points total to overtake the current leaders. But, but, but…

The leaders, Little Tuna and Craft Brew, have an advantage with this week’s slate of (only) 6 games. A reminder to the other Analysts: if you have the same picks as the leaders, you will be boxed out of the winner’s circle! If the Analysts wipe out, Little Tuna coasts to a win.

That said, the race is quite a mess and The Clearinghouse begins with a disclaimer… I think this is correct!

The front runners:

Little Tuna: Although Little Tuna leads by 1 Trifecta point, Craft Brew is in a dead heat for first place. The only way for her to have a guaranteed win is to take the same three teams as last week for 8 points total. If Little Tuna changes even one team and Craft Brew comes from behind to tie her in Trifecta points, he will win due to a tiebreaker advantage (note: assuming both keep their Home Teams, see below!). They both have the Seahawks and Patriots from last week, they both have 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and they both have 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If Little Tuna tries to box out Craft Brew by taking the same three teams (i.e., adding the Steelers to her list), Craft Brew will gain an extra Fibonacci point in a winning trifecta and then win the Fibonacci Stakes based on the third tiebreaker: most Fibonacci bonus points during the race. On the other hand, if Craft Brew does not earn a trifecta, then Little Tuna beats every other Analyst if she gets a Trifecta worth any value.

Craft Brew: Whereas Little Tuna has to defend against Craft Brew on her heels and the rest of the field far behind, Craft Brew really only needs to focus on beating the front runner. If he gets a winning trifecta and ties or takes the lead over Little Tuna, he wins. Thus, the Trifecta is his main concern. Added note to Craft Brew: Holding the same three teams will prevent Little Tuna from boxing you out. Conversely, swapping out the Steelers for any another team gives Little Tuna an advantage if she keeps the Patriots or takes more Fibonacci bonus picks.

The laggards:

While Little Tuna and Craft Brew have to strategize against each other, the bottom of the field cannot win unless neither front runner get a Trifecta. Starting at the bottom of the field, where the scenarios are easier:

Atwork: Lucky you, no need to send your picks this week! You must take Eagles, Saints, Steelers again for 8 points and a possible 9 points total. To win, however, you need help: the Patriots must also lose and all other Analysts must not exceed 9 points total AND no more than 3 Home Team Selections. Atwork is 3 lengths behind in the AoY, so the Fibonacci may be the best play for more purse this year!

B-Reezy: As he is wont to do, B-Reezy will have to weigh the chance to win the Fibonacci versus the chance to defend his AoY crown. Unlike Atwork, B-Reezy cannot end in a tie with Little Tuna. He must also keep the same three teams — Chiefs*/Saints*/Steelers* — and hope not to end in a tie with other Analysts because his Home Team has yielded a dismal 0 Correct Home Team Selections. With 10 points, the one Analyst he beats in a tie is…

Wise Orangutan: Wise O. has 3 trifecta points, but due to taking the Seahawks and Eagles last week (who play each other this week), he can only reach 10 points total. He will lose in most tie scenarios, so none of the other Analysts need to concern themselves with his picks–and all can expect a bizarre pick if Wise O. wants to win the Fibonacci Stakes rather than the AoY… in other words, Go Bills!

The contenders:

The other Analysts with 3 or 4 trifecta points and the opportunity to earn 8 points this week:

One of the bizarr-o aspects of this little game is that Analysts rarely have the same three picks! Surprisingly, every Analyst not named Wise O. who has 3 Trifecta points can earn 8 points this week and not worry about being boxed out. However, if the Fibonacci Stakes ends in a tie at 11 points among the Analysts who had 3 points to start Leg 4, the order of strength is:

The Bookie: The Bookie has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Big Tuna, 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If her same three teams win and the front runners lag, she wins the Fibonacci Stakes. If the race ends in a tie of less than 10 points, she will still have her head-to-head advantage over Big Tuna and advantages over Kal Krome provided she keeps the Rams in her winning Trifecta.

Big Tuna: With the loss to The Bookie, Big Tuna has to avoid a tie with The Bookie. His Home Team plays The Strategist’s Home Team this week, and that will determine the tiebreaker between the two. If he expects the Saints to beat the Panthers this week, he can keep the Saints and play for a tie with The Strategist. Other than The Bookie, Big also holds advantages over all other Analysts who can reach 10 or more points this weekend.

Kal Krome: Kal Krome has only 2 Correct Home Team Picks, so he trails The Bookie and Big Tuna in a tie. He can win with the same three teams as last week if the Patriots and Chiefs also lose. He beats the Wise O. in a tiebreaker due to head-to-head competition.

Leaving….

The Strategist: In third place currently with 4 Trifecta points, the Strategist has a couple of options provided that Little Tuna and Craft Brew fail to close out the race. With the same three teams, she reaches 12 points and wins outright. If she shoots for 11 points, she has to find a combination that does end in a tie with The Bookie, Big Tuna, or Kal Krome–all three have more Home Team Picks at this time. Her Panthers play Big Tuna’s Saints this week, so if she expects the Panthers to win, her primary threat is The Bookie because Kal Krome had the Saints last week (he will either lose with the Saints or have to change his pick).

AoY Eliminations:

At this time, only Kal Krome can be eliminated before Week 13 in the Analyst of the Year Competition. If The Strategist earns 1 more Trifecta and Kal Krome does not, he will be down by 5 Trifectas with only 4 weeks remaining.

Standings | Analyst of the Year IV | Week 12

Analyst of the Year IV

After a disappointing run around the far turn, Chiefly, the front runners now find themselves challenged by the young colt, Craft Brew!

The Strategist remains in first with 6 Trifectas and 28 Correct Picks, but her attempt to tie the record for 7 Trifectas in a single season has remained elusive.

Charging from the middle of the pack, Craft Brew notches his 5th Trifecta and 27th Correct Pick to move into second place.

With one un-Saintly Correct Pick in Week 12, B-Reezy falls into third place with 5 Trifectas and 26 Correct Picks. Will the defending Analyst of the Year be able to defend his crown down the home stretch?!!?

Wise Orangutan slips into fourth place with 5 Trifectas and a paltry 23 Correct Picks.

Big Tuna drops one place, into fifth, with 4 Trifectas but also with a place-worthy 27 Correct Picks that gives him an opportunity on the outside rail. A few heads behind, The Bookie claims sixth place with 4 Trifectas and 24 Correct Picks.

At the back of the field, Little Tuna jumps Atwork to take seventh place with 3 Trifectas and 24 Correct Picks–edging the young stallion’s 3 Trifectas and 22 Correct Picks.

Kal Krome–the only true rancher among the lot of us!–brings up the rear, still struggling to sell the retired Minds Blank to the stud farm so that he can focus on raising new fillies.

Trifectas

Analyst of the Year IV | Standings | Week 12 — Standings after Week 12 for Analyst of the Year IV

Correct Picks

Analyst of the Year IV | Tiebreaker | Week 12 — Tiebreaker after Week 12 for Analyst of the Year IV

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 4

Fibonacci Stakes IV

Little Tuna and Craft Brew make their play for the lead heading into the brutal fifth leg of the Fibonacci Stakes!

Coming out of the far turn, Little Tuna successfully calls the complete Fibonacci Trifecta: 3 base points plus 3 Fibonacci bonus points. She moves into the lead with 9 total Trifecta points.

Only one length behind, Craft Brew bags the 3-point base Trifecta plus 2 Fibonacci bonus points for 5 points in the fourth leg. He holds second with 8 total Trifecta points headed into the home stretch.

Trailing the leader by five lengths, The Stategist holds at 4 total Trifecta points in third place.

Trailing the front runner by six lengths, four Analysts give chase with 3 Trifecta points. The Bookie and Big Tuna are in a dead heat for fourth place with 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci bonus points each–but The Bookie holds the advantage with a head-to-head victory. In sixth, Kal Krome follows with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci points, plus the head-to-head advantage over Wise Orangutan in seventh.

B-Reezy trails the leader by seven lengths (2 Trifecta points total), while Atwork runs in ninth with 1 Trifecta point. Though in contention, both Analysts will need a clutch sprint down the home stretch to win the Fibonacci Stakes.

Trifecta Points

Tiebreakers

Kal Krome holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Wise Orangutan. The Bookie holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Big Tuna.

Big Tuna, The Bookie, Little Tuna, and Craft Brew have an advantage with 3 Correct Home Team Picks during the Stakes.

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 4 — Tiebreakers after Leg 4 of Fibonacci Stakes IV

Bye weeks for Home Teams are grayed out (Table 2).

Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 4 Picks

The Analysts’ Picks Are In:

The Bookie: Rams*/Steelers*/Chiefs
The Big Tuna: Saints*/Seahawks*/Patriots*
Little Tuna: Patriots*/Rams*/Seahawks*
Wise Orangutan: Chiefs*/Seahawks*/Eagles
The Strategist: Steelers*/Chiefs*/Eagles
Kal Krome: Seahawks*/Saints*/Steelers*
B-Reezy: Chiefs*/Saints*/Steelers*
Atwork: Eagles*/Saints/Steelers
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Seahawks*/Patriots

Analyst of the Week
The Strategist

Our Celebrity Analyst Roasters:

The Bookie: The Strategist is a modest Analyst, with much to be modest about.
Lately she’s had delusions of adequacy.
She thinks she could win a trophy this year!!
You’ll never hear her say “it’s only a game” she’s more likely to say “if winning isn’t everything, why do we keep score???

Big Tuna: Goes up to the microphone. Blushes furiously. Giggles and says, “Pretty!”

Little Tuna: The Strategist has to live with Wise O. I don’t believe in kicking a horse when it’s down.

The Wise Orangutan: I would roast The Strategist, but if I were to describe the analytical genius in action, it would be an embarrassment to those of us who trail in the AoY competition. I mean, maybe there is some benefit in reading predictive analytics and expert picks every week, but what is the point when you are like a ninth-level, ninja pop psychologist who can divine which team “wants it more this week” just by looking at the teams on the schedule…

Kal Krome: What kind of strategist is The Strategist? I’ve met the Wise O?!?

Craft Brew: Happy Birthday Matt!! Do you know how the strategist was able to supply and buy your diapers when you needed to be changed When you were a baby? By taking your uncles money stash from under his mattress! When we were kids. ! LOL!!

B-Reezy: The Queen of Lies and Deceit has assimilated the memory of her winning the Analyst of the Year trophy obviously.

Atwork: even the crickets are quiet. Shhh

The Results Are In:

The Bookie: Rams*/Steelers*/~~Chiefs~~
The Big Tuna: Saints*/Seahawks*/Patriots*
Little Tuna: Patriots*/Rams*/Seahawks* (6 points)
Wise Orangutan: Chiefs*/Seahawks*/Eagles
The Strategist: Steelers*/Chiefs*/Eagles
Kal Krome: Seahawks*/Saints*/Steelers*
B-Reezy: Chiefs*/Saints*/Steelers*
Atwork: Eagles*/~~Saints~~/Steelers
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Seahawks*/Patriots (5 points)

Scenarios | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 4

Fibonacci Stakes Leg 4 Scenarios:

Current Standings

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes IV | Leg 3 — Standings after Leg 3 of Fibonacci Stakes IV

General scenarios:

With seven Analysts at 3-4 Trifecta points, most Analysts will be able to win the Fibonacci Stakes in Leg 5. This week a base trifecta is worth 3 points and the maximum is 6 points with 3 Fibonacci bonus picks. That means the largest lead anyone can open is 7 points (The Strategist). If an Analyst falls behind by 7 points, the Analyst will be forced to take the same teams in Leg 5 to overtake the leader.

In Leg 5, the base trifecta is worth 5 points and the maximum trifecta is worth 8 points with 3 Fibonacci bonus picks. However, the Slate of Games for Leg 5 pits 6 Home Teams against each other. If two teams from Leg 4 picks by an Analyst play each other in Leg 5, the Analyst will have to change at least one pick and will have a maximum of 7 trifecta points in Leg 5.

Also, beware the Box Out! If two Analysts have the same picks, the Analyst with more points or better tiebreakers blocks the opponent down the homestretch!

Eliminations:

At this time, only Atwork can be eliminated before Leg 5 and only if The Strategist earns 6 points to take a 9 point lead over him.

B-Reezy is in a precarious position if The Strategist takes an 8 point lead, but he may still come from behind if the Stakes ends in a photo finish (tiebreakers).

Standings | Analyst of the Year IV | Week 11