Fibonacci Stakes Leg 4 Scenarios:
Current Standings
Scenarios:
As we thought last week, no Analyst has been eliminated in the Fibonacci Stakes yet… The base Trifecta is worth 5 points and with 3 Fibonacci bonuses an Analyst can earn 8 points total to overtake the current leaders. But, but, but…
The leaders, Little Tuna and Craft Brew, have an advantage with this week’s slate of (only) 6 games. A reminder to the other Analysts: if you have the same picks as the leaders, you will be boxed out of the winner’s circle! If the Analysts wipe out, Little Tuna coasts to a win.
That said, the race is quite a mess and The Clearinghouse begins with a disclaimer… I think this is correct!
The front runners:
Little Tuna: Although Little Tuna leads by 1 Trifecta point, Craft Brew is in a dead heat for first place. The only way for her to have a guaranteed win is to take the same three teams as last week for 8 points total. If Little Tuna changes even one team and Craft Brew comes from behind to tie her in Trifecta points, he will win due to a tiebreaker advantage (note: assuming both keep their Home Teams, see below!). They both have the Seahawks and Patriots from last week, they both have 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and they both have 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If Little Tuna tries to box out Craft Brew by taking the same three teams (i.e., adding the Steelers to her list), Craft Brew will gain an extra Fibonacci point in a winning trifecta and then win the Fibonacci Stakes based on the third tiebreaker: most Fibonacci bonus points during the race. On the other hand, if Craft Brew does not earn a trifecta, then Little Tuna beats every other Analyst if she gets a Trifecta worth any value.
Craft Brew: Whereas Little Tuna has to defend against Craft Brew on her heels and the rest of the field far behind, Craft Brew really only needs to focus on beating the front runner. If he gets a winning trifecta and ties or takes the lead over Little Tuna, he wins. Thus, the Trifecta is his main concern. Added note to Craft Brew: Holding the same three teams will prevent Little Tuna from boxing you out. Conversely, swapping out the Steelers for any another team gives Little Tuna an advantage if she keeps the Patriots or takes more Fibonacci bonus picks.
The laggards:
While Little Tuna and Craft Brew have to strategize against each other, the bottom of the field cannot win unless neither front runner get a Trifecta. Starting at the bottom of the field, where the scenarios are easier:
Atwork: Lucky you, no need to send your picks this week! You must take Eagles, Saints, Steelers again for 8 points and a possible 9 points total. To win, however, you need help: the Patriots must also lose and all other Analysts must not exceed 9 points total AND no more than 3 Home Team Selections. Atwork is 3 lengths behind in the AoY, so the Fibonacci may be the best play for more purse this year!
B-Reezy: As he is wont to do, B-Reezy will have to weigh the chance to win the Fibonacci versus the chance to defend his AoY crown. Unlike Atwork, B-Reezy cannot end in a tie with Little Tuna. He must also keep the same three teams — Chiefs*/Saints*/Steelers* — and hope not to end in a tie with other Analysts because his Home Team has yielded a dismal 0 Correct Home Team Selections. With 10 points, the one Analyst he beats in a tie is…
Wise Orangutan: Wise O. has 3 trifecta points, but due to taking the Seahawks and Eagles last week (who play each other this week), he can only reach 10 points total. He will lose in most tie scenarios, so none of the other Analysts need to concern themselves with his picks–and all can expect a bizarre pick if Wise O. wants to win the Fibonacci Stakes rather than the AoY… in other words, Go Bills!
The contenders:
The other Analysts with 3 or 4 trifecta points and the opportunity to earn 8 points this week:
One of the bizarr-o aspects of this little game is that Analysts rarely have the same three picks! Surprisingly, every Analyst not named Wise O. who has 3 Trifecta points can earn 8 points this week and not worry about being boxed out. However, if the Fibonacci Stakes ends in a tie at 11 points among the Analysts who had 3 points to start Leg 4, the order of strength is:
The Bookie: The Bookie has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Big Tuna, 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If her same three teams win and the front runners lag, she wins the Fibonacci Stakes. If the race ends in a tie of less than 10 points, she will still have her head-to-head advantage over Big Tuna and advantages over Kal Krome provided she keeps the Rams in her winning Trifecta.
Big Tuna: With the loss to The Bookie, Big Tuna has to avoid a tie with The Bookie. His Home Team plays The Strategist’s Home Team this week, and that will determine the tiebreaker between the two. If he expects the Saints to beat the Panthers this week, he can keep the Saints and play for a tie with The Strategist. Other than The Bookie, Big also holds advantages over all other Analysts who can reach 10 or more points this weekend.
Kal Krome: Kal Krome has only 2 Correct Home Team Picks, so he trails The Bookie and Big Tuna in a tie. He can win with the same three teams as last week if the Patriots and Chiefs also lose. He beats the Wise O. in a tiebreaker due to head-to-head competition.
Leaving….
The Strategist: In third place currently with 4 Trifecta points, the Strategist has a couple of options provided that Little Tuna and Craft Brew fail to close out the race. With the same three teams, she reaches 12 points and wins outright. If she shoots for 11 points, she has to find a combination that does end in a tie with The Bookie, Big Tuna, or Kal Krome–all three have more Home Team Picks at this time. Her Panthers play Big Tuna’s Saints this week, so if she expects the Panthers to win, her primary threat is The Bookie because Kal Krome had the Saints last week (he will either lose with the Saints or have to change his pick).
AoY Eliminations:
At this time, only Kal Krome can be eliminated before Week 13 in the Analyst of the Year Competition. If The Strategist earns 1 more Trifecta and Kal Krome does not, he will be down by 5 Trifectas with only 4 weeks remaining.
