Player Haters Preakness VIII | Standings | Leg 4
Headed into the final Leg (5), we have a four way tie at 24 points as well as six more Analysts with 18 to 21 points. That means we have far too many possible outcomes to consider in a comprehensive scenario.
Assuming that at least one leading Analyst reaches 27 to 30 points (+1 *lame* or *base* Trifecta), what follows are brief statements on the relative strength of Tiebreakers for each Analyst vis-a-vis the current leader (Mo Money). See the Tiebreakers grid at the bottom of the post to verify Analyst strength of Tiebreakers.
Scenarios
Mo Money (1st place; 24 points): She leads with 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.0 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Atwork* and B-Reezy. Her Buccaneers are on a bye in Leg 5, however, so she cannot improve her advantage. If she reaches 30 Trifecta points, she will remain at 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.0 forced turnovers per game — which we treat as the bar for others to Win on Tiebreakers.
Roxy Trot (2nd Place; 24 points): She controls second place with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over KateTDid, but loses to Little Tuna in a two-way tie on first Tiebreaker. Her Bills play this week so she can reach 3 Correct Home Team Picks to tie Mo Money. She also will need 2 forced turnovers to Win, or 1 forced turnover to Tie Mo Money for first place.
Jimmy V (3rd Place; 24 points): He holds third place with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 1.3 forced turnovers per game. He also has a first Tiebreaker over Woody, but loses to Big Tuna on first Tiebreaker. His Cardinals play this week so he can reach 3 Correct Home Team Picks, but he will need 5 forced turnovers in order to reach Mo Money’s 2.0 per game, and possibly more turnovers to reach Roxy Trot’s or Little Tuna’s forced turnovers per game.
Little Tuna (4th Place; 24 points): She holds fourth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Roxy Trot and KateTDid. Her Titans play this week so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. She will lose in a tie with Mo Money (second Tiebreaker), win in a tie with Roxy Trot (first tiebreaker) and likely win in a tie with Jimmy V unless he Correctly Picks his Cardinals to Win this week. And, see Sponge Mom below.
Craft Brew (5th Place; 21 points): He is in sole possession of fifth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 1.3 forced turnovers per game. He reaches 27 with a *base* Trifecta without Player Hater Picks (+6), or 33 points with 2 Player Haters Picks (+12). In a tie at 27 points, he will lose to Mo Money (3 Correct Home Team Picks). He also is at a disadvantage to Roxy Trot and Jimmy V (2 Correct Home Team Picks before Leg 5) and to Little Tuna on forced turnovers per game (2.3 before Leg 5). Correct Picks and forced turnovers in Leg 5 will determine his outcome in a tie.
Sponge Mom (6th Place, 18 points): She holds sixth place with 4 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Bookie and faces Little Tuna in Leg 5. No Analyst can equal her current Correct Home Team Picks, so she holds the tiebreakers over all Analysts except Little Tuna (pending outcome of Titans-Rams game). In order to reach 30 points, however, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points. She could aim for 24 points (1 or 0 Player Hater Picks) and hope that no other Analyst scores more than 24 points.
KateTDid (7th Place; 18 points): She is in seventh place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 1.0 forced turnovers per game. She has first Tiebreaker over The Strategist, but loses on first Tiebreaker to Roxy Trot and Little Tuna. Her Chiefs play this week, so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. In order to reach 30 points, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points, however, she is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to most Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory. Also, see Big Tuna below.
Woody (8th Place; 18 points): She is in eighth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 0.5 forced turnovers per game. She loses on first Tiebreaker to Jimmy V. Her Browns play this week, so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. In order to reach 30 points, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points, however, she also is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to most Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.
The Strategist (9th Place; 18 points): She is in ninth place with 0 Correct Home Team Picks and 1.8 forced turnovers per game. She loses on first Tiebreaker to KateTDid and Big Tuna. Her Football Team is on a bye, so her Tiebreakers are locked in. She needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points to reach 30 total, but she is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to all Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.
B-Reezy (10th Place; 18 points): He is in tenth place with 0 Correct Home Team Picks and 0.5 forced turnovers per game. He loses on first Tiebreaker to Mo Money and Big Tuna. His Bears play this week, but he is not able to improve his Tiebreakers well enough to challenge the current leaders. He needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points to reach 30 total, and the rest of the field to fail to reach 30 points. A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.
Big Tuna and all Other Analysts (less than 18 points): Each needs a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) to have a chance at the Win. Wise O. and Atwork can reach 33 points for the Win, while Big Tuna can reach 30 points and exercise his first Tiebreakers over B-Reezy, The Strategist, Jimmy V, and KateTDid (TBD, Leg 5 game) in the event of a tie at 30 points. Bookie can reach 24 points at most and cannot Win on Tiebreakers (Seahawks on a bye week).
Tiebreakers
* Mo Money’s first Tiebreaker (head-to-head) in Leg 2 / Week 2 is over Atwork, not The Strategist.
