Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Standings | Leg 4
Headed into the home stretch (Leg 5), Big Tuna holds a 6 point lead over his nearest competitor — more than 5-point Fibonacci Bonus Pick in Leg 5. This means his challengers will have to earn at least one more Fibonacci Bonus and/or better Trifecta (base or lame) than he does.
Leg 4 Picks
Scenarios
Big Tuna (1st Place; 27 points): The Eagles are on a Bye in Leg 5, so Big Tuna must change at least one Pick. His maximum score is *base* Trifecta (6) plus two Fibonacci Bonus Picks (10) for 16 points. No other Analyst can reach 43 points. If Big Tuna gets a lame Trifecta with two Fibonacci Bonus Pick, he still adds 13 points total. If Big Tuna gets a lame Trifecta with one Fibonacci Bonus Pick, he gains 8 points to reach 35 points total.
While Big Tuna can wipe out (0 points) down the home stretch, the Scenarios consider his “average” outcome (8 points) because many Analyst also have his other Fibonacci Bonus Picks (Rams and Buccaneers).
Woody (2nd Place; 21 points): Woody had the Bills and Buccaneers in Leg 4 — two teams that play each other in Leg 5. She has the luxury of Picking the winner of the Bills/Bucs game for Fibonacci Bonus Points, but Woody also can add only16 points total with a *base* Trifecta and two Fibonacci Bonus Picks. That is enough to Win if Big Tuna scores 8 points or less and those who trail her do not surpass her total.
Mo Money (3rd place; 20 points): Mo Money can perform the full Fibonacci for 21 points. That is enough to beat Big Tuna with a *lame* Trifecta (max = 40 points) and Woody with a 16-point Trifecta (max = 37 points). If she switches Picks (to maintain AoY strategy), then her gambit will require Big Tuna and Woody to falter and those trailing her not to perform a full Fibonacci.
KateTDid (4th Place; 18 points): KateTDid requires a full Fibonacci (21 points) to exceed 37 points (more than Big Tuna’s projected 8-point outcome) and Woody’s maximum outcome. Mo Money can outrace her to the finish line if Rams Win.
Jimmy V (5th Place; 18 points): Jimmy V is Boxed Out by Mo Money, which mean he can Place at best if he holds the same three teams. If he changes one Pick strategically, he can reach 34 points. Whether that is enough to Win depends on which three teams he holds and how other Analysts’ Picks prove true!
Roxy Trot (6th Place; 17 points) and Bookie (7th Place; 17 points): Both Analysts have the Bills and Buccaneers (playing each other in Leg 5). Both must change at least one Pick and at most can earn 16 points for 33 Trifecta Points total. To Win, they will have to choose wisely between Bills and Buccaneers, and then find a third Pick to complete a 16-point Trifecta. Both need to examine the Analysts ahead of them to find the proper third Pick to come from behind.
All Other Analysts: Are in the back half of the field and trailing Big Tuna by at least 12 points. The full Fibonacci (if possible) is their best hope, but most are partially Boxed Out by other Analysts ahead of them. Atwork is in the best position since he has three unique Picks including Cowboys and Seahawks (nobody else has these two teams). The other Analysts will have to spend the night at the computer running predictive models to find their best hope for the Win!
