The Bookie enters the far stretch with a two length lead over The Strategist. Only one length behind, Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Atwork give chase. B-Reezy and Wise O. struggle to make the first turn. Little Tuna has not noticed the gates have opened!
Big, Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get base trifectas (3). Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get Playoff Victories (1) with their Home Teams. The Bookie takes the offensive PC-Fecta (1), while Kal takes the defensive PC-Fecta (2). B-Reezy, Wise O., and Bookie net a Player Hater (1).
Picks in the Wildcard Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III
The Results Are In
Big Tuna, The Bookie, Atwork, and The Strategist surge out of the first turn with correct trifectas. Wise O. and Kal Krome pick two correctly, while B-Reezy and Little Tuna net only one correct pick each.
Last year, all of the road/away teams won. This year, NONE of the road/away teams won this year, so there are no upsets by home field advantage in the first round!
Pick Results after the Wildcard Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
The Slate of Games for the Wildcard Round of Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)
Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts with one of the top two seeds in each conference are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Wildcard round will earn 1 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Wildcard Round, 1 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking the Texans to beat Big Tuna’s Raiders, the Dolphins to beat The Strategist’s Steelers, or the Giants to beat The Bookie’s Opposite-of-Chicago.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Dolphins (3 points), Raiders (1 point), Lions (3 points), and Giants (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If B-Reezy correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 1 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (7 total possible). If B-Reezy does not include the Lions in his trifecta picks, a victory by the Lions will yield only the Playoff Victory point (1 total).
Strategery
As we – the Clearinghouse and The Bookie – have invested money, time, and thought in our research to devise the best possible test of predictive skill, we must point out several considerations for the point system in place since last year:
1) Points in the early rounds are integral. If a Home Team is eliminated in the Wildcard or Divisional round, the Analyst will not be able to earn Playoff Victory or Reverse PCFecta points in later rounds. And, the base trifecta points for picking three correctly goes down each week.
2) Head-to-head competitions will make or break the Analysts strategy. For the second year in a row, Kal Krome and B-Reezy face each other in the wildcard round!
3) If an Analyst’s Home Team falters, be a proud player hater. New England is unowned! The other three un-owned teams are low seeds (3+) and yield Player Hater points plus Seeder Redux points with each correct pick to win.
In other words, it is not the Horse the Analyst rides in, but the Horse the Analyst rides out that may win the Trophy!
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
In the first year of the World Football Trifecta League, only 2 away teams upset their hosts (20%) – the lowest upset rate of the past 13 years. The Ravens upset the Steelers in the Wildcard round and the Colts upset the Broncos in the Divisional round. Three away teams lost close games on questionable officiating calls: Lions to Cowboys (flag|no flag), Cowboys to Packers (catch|no catch), and Ravens to Patriots (legal formation|illegal formation). In the Championship round, the Packers gave away the NFC Championship to the Seahawks with an onside recovery. It could have been 6 away team wins just as easily as it was 2.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
From the General Rules, Analysts may select new Home Teams for the World Football Analyst Championship (aka Super Trifecta Bowl):
The Super Trifecta Bowl follows rules similar to the regular season races. Analysts must own one of the 12 playoff teams as their steed. Analysts whose teams did not make the playoffs and those who wish to drop their playoff steed for a new team will select in order of regular season seeding, from worst to best. Seeding ties for new team selections will be determined by the ranking of Analysts in the Annual Award. As in the regular season, Analysts may not pick against their Home Teams.
New Home Team Selection Order
Five Analysts backed playoff-bound Home Teams to end the season and three saw their Home Teams fail to make the playoffs. According to the rules, the order of selection for new Home Teams is by current playoff seeding, worst to first.
For the Analysts without playoff teams (bold) and those who release teams, the order of selection is:
1. The Strategist (Rams, NFC 14th)
2. Atwork (Vikings, NFC 9th (tie), AoY 6th)
3. The Bookie (Ravens, AFC 9th (tie), AoY 5th)
4. B-Reezy (Lions, NFC 6th)
5. Big Tuna (Raiders, AFC 5th)
6. Kal Krome (Seahawks, NFC 3rd)
7. Wise Orangutan (Chiefs, AFC 2nd)
8. Little Tuna (Cowboys, NFC 1st)
For those with Home Teams in the playoffs, the decision to release a current Home Team should be sent to The Bookie by Wednesday.
Releases and New Home Team Selections
No Analysts with playoff teams release their steeds.
With the first pick for Super Trifecta Bowl III, The Strategist takes Pittsburgh. With the second pick, Atwork selects Atlanta. And, with the third pick, The Bookie betrays Chicago (Green Bay).
The Home Teams for the Super Trifecta Bowl are:
Slate of Analysts and Home Teams for Super Trifecta Bowl III (2016-17)
Surprisingly, none of the Analysts have the (dis)honor of sponsoring #1 Seed New England this year! May the best (and most ethical) Analyst win!
In the homestretch, B-Reezy cruises to the finish line with 7 Trifectas and 35 Correct Picks. He ties Little Tuna for the most Trifectas in a season, but does not match her record for Correct Picks (37).
Big Tuna takes second place with 5 Trifectas and 35 Correct Picks, breaking away from Wise Orangutan in third by a length (4 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks).
Kal Krome (3 Trifectas and 32 Correct Picks) closes strong to take fourth place over The Bookie (3 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) and Atwork (3 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks).
Last year’s frontrunners, Little Tuna (2 Trifectas and 28 Correct Picks) and The Strategist (1 Trifecta and 26 Correct Picks) finish in the bottom two spots, respectively.
Trifectas
Final Results for Analyst of the Year III (2016-17)
Correct Picks
Final Results for Correct Picks Analyst of the Year III (2016-17)
The Seeders’ Cup is testing a new trifecta point system that models the score of a football game. See the Slate of Games and the Playoff-Caliber Game Rules for more information.
Wise Orangutan scores a three Field Goals (2 Correct Picks plus additional scores) to hold onto his lead with 31 points total. He wins The Seeders’ Cup III, under the Playoff-Caliber Game Rules.
Down by 6 at the end of the third quarter, Big Tuna scores a Touchdown (3 Correct Picks), but no conversion and 3 additional points to score 25 points. Kal Krome also scores a touchdown, converts the 2-point, and adds 3 additional points for 25 total as well. In overtime, Kal Krome bests Big Tuna on the third tiebreaker — Kal netted 11 Seeder points vs. 8 Seeder points for Big Tuna.
The Bookie ends the fourth quarter on a high note, a touchdown and three additional points, to score 23 and take 4th place.
Atwork (20) edges Little Tuna (19) for 5th place. B-Reezy cruises the homestretch of the Analyst of the Year competition to gain 7th place (16 points), and The Strategist struggles with life after Jeff Fisher (11 points total).
Scores at End of the Game in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
Playoff-Caliber Game Tiebreakers
Big Tuna and Kal Krome finished tied with 25 points at the end of regulation. They did not play head-to-head (first tiebreaker) and both correctly picked their Home Teams twice.
Per the third tiebreaker, Kal Krome edges Big Tuna by a nose with 11 Seeder points vs. 8 Seeder points. Kal places, Big shows.
Tiebreakers at End of Game in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
Scores at End of the Third Quarter in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
Visitors: Rules for the Seeders’ Cup Playoff-Caliber Game can be found here.
Analysts! In the final calculations of the Seeders’ Cup, all Analysts (see #7 below) remain in contention for The Winner’s Circle.
Per the Slate of Games playoff scenarios, an Analyst could score 18-20 points with a trifecta that includes Oakland, Seattle, and Detroit/Green Bay if all the pieces fall into place. For that to happen, though, Oakland and Seattle must win, Atlanta must lose, and the Analysts will have to pick correctly between Detroit and Green Bay.
Wise Orangutan leads going into the fourth quarter, but he likely will need at least a Field Goal and additional scores to win the playoff-caliber game.
Beware the Box Out! If two Analyst have the same three picks, the Analysts with less points has no way to overtake the Analyst with more points in the final quarter!
Below are the most likely scenarios for the fourth quarter of the Seeders’ Cup Playoff-Caliber Game:
Wise Orangutan (22 points) takes a 6-point into the fourth quarter over his closest challenger. He needs 15 points (a TD and two additional scores) to dominate in the fourth quarter. He is tied for the lead in Tiebreakers and most Analysts will need his Home Team to lose in order to beat him in overtime.
Big Tuna (16 points) is in a strong position as Home Team can clinch a bye-week (4 points) with a win and possibly a home-field advantage (5 points) if New England loses to Miami. A field goal with his Home Team and one other playoff-clinching team will score at least 9 points in the fourth quarter. A touchdown with his Home Team and two additional scores will give him at least 15 points. He also has a strong tiebreaking portfolio if the Playoff-Caliber Game goes to overtime..
The Bookie, Kal Krome, and Atwork (14 points) will need Big Tuna and Wise Orangutan to stumble slightly and also prove clutch in the fourth quarter. A field goal with two additional scores will give each enough to score 23 points. If Big Tuna or Wise Orangutan score a field goal, than these three Analysts will likely need a touchdown and two additional scores (two playoff-clinch picks) to win.
Little Tuna (13 points), The Strategist (11 points), and B-Reezy (9 points) are down by more than a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter. Each need a touchdown and additional scores to take the lead. A field goal with two additional scores will give each enough to score 23 points. If Little Tuna can take the game to overtime, she has the tiebreakers to win the Playoff-Caliber Game. The Strategist and B-Reezy, on the other hand, need to score and score often to win the game.
Note: Again, an Analyst could score 18-20 points with a trifecta that includes Oakland, Seattle, and Detroit/Green Bay if all the pieces fall into place. For that to happen, though, Oakland and Seattle must win, Atlanta must lose, and the Analysts will have to pick correctly between Detroit and Green Bay.
In The Seeders’ Cup, correct picks may award Seed Points, or “additional scoring,” if the team earns a playoff spot. The additional scores by playoff seeding are:
Clinch playoff berth (wildcard) = 2 points.
Clinch division title = 3 points.
Clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs = 4 points.
Clinch home field advantage in playoffs = 5 points.
The following teams have a chance to earn Seeder Points with a win:
Oakland = 4 or 5 points
Kansas City = 4 points
Seattle = 4 points
Detroit = 2 or 3 or 4 points
Green Bay = 2 or 3 points
That is five options, but Kansas City or Oakland will earn additional scores (not both), Seattle needs Atlanta to lose in order to score additional points, and Green Bay plays at Detroit.
Off the slate of games, New England, Atlanta, Washington, and Tampa Bay may secure playoff seeding.
See the CBS scenarios to see which other teams must lose or tie for the above teams to secure playoff seeding. Also see the nfl.com articles on the AFC playoff (no update as of 12/28) and NFC playoff race.
The Picks
The Bookie: Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals
Big Tuna: Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals
Little Tuna: Cowboys/Seahawks/Packers
Wise Orangutan: Chiefs/Seahawks/Lions
The Strategist: Cowboys/Seahawks/Lions
Kal Krome: Seahawks/Packers/Eagles
B-Reezy: Chiefs/Seahawks/Lions
Atwork: Vikings/Raiders/Packers
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017
Pick Results | Final
Chiefs clinched division and bye week (+4 points)
Packers clinched division (+3 points)
Detroit clinched playoff birth (+2 points)
Analysts get the additional scores if at least 2 Picks are correct.
The Bookie: Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals (9 points)
Big Tuna: Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals (9 points)
Little Tuna: Cowboys/Seahawks/Packers (6 points)
Wise Orangutan: Chiefs/Seahawks/Lions (9 points)
The Strategist: Cowboys/Seahawks/Lions
Kal Krome: Seahawks/Packers/Eagles (11 points)
B-Reezy: Chiefs/Seahawks/Lions (7 points)
Atwork: Vikings/Raiders/Packers (6 points)
In the fourth quarter, Kal Krome scores a touchdown with 2-point conversion and an additional field goal (11 total). The Bookie and Big Tuna score a touchdown, no conversion, and an additional field goal (9 total). Wise Orangutan kicks three field goals for 9 total.
B-Reezy scores 7 points the hard way (field goal and two safeties!), while Little Tuna and Atwork score two field goals (6 points).
The Strategist laments the end of the Jeff Fisher era (0 points).
Ahead by multiple horse lengths, B-Reezy stops to graze (0 Correct Picks). With 7 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks, his potentially record-setting season now hangs on next weeks Picks.
Big Tuna clings to second place with 4 Trifectas and 32 Correct Picks, leading Wise Orangutan by a head (4 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks).
Atwork (3 Trifectas and 27 Correct Picks) falls out of the Winner’s Circle. He will be unable to close the distance in Leg 17 of the Analyst of the Year competition.
Kal Krome keeps pace with 2 Trifecta Points and 29 Correct Picks, followed closely by The Bookie (2 Trifecta Points and 28 Correct Picks) and Little Tuna (2 Trifecta Points and 26 Correct Picks).
The Strategist (1 Trifecta and 25 Correct Picks) returns to the greener pasture of Los Angeles for the final game of the season.
Trifectas
Standings after Leg 16 for the Analyst of the Year III
Correct Picks
Tiebreakers after Leg 16 for the Analyst of the Year III
The Seeders’ Cup is testing a new trifecta point system that models the score of a football game. See the Slate of Games and the Playoff-Caliber Game Rules for more information.
Playoff-Caliber Game Score |End of Third Quarter
Wise Orangutan scores a Touchdown (3 Correct Picks) with a two point conversion, and adds a field goal and safety for 13 points. With 22 points, he leads at the end of third quarter in the Playoff-Caliber Game (correct picks here).
Down by 6 at the end of the third quarter, Big Tuna makes a Field Goal (2 Correct Picks) to add to his first half scores for a total of 16 points.
Down by a touchdown and 2-point conversion, The Bookie, Kal Krome, and Atwork add a Field Goal (2 Correct Picks) and additional scores from the Cowboys and Steelers (Atwork only). All three have scored 14 points at the end of the third quarter.
Little Tuna also kicks a Field Goal and adds 5 points with her Home Team Dallas clinching home field advantage in the conference playoffs. She has 13 points to start the fourth quarter.
The Strategist, with 11 points total, and B-Reezy, 9 points total) are within two scores of the leader, but will need a strong fourth quarter to take the Seeders’ Cup Crown.
All 8 Analysts can win the Seeders’ Cup with a clutch drive in the fourth quarter!
Scores at End of the Third Quarter in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
Playoff-Caliber Game Tiebreakers
If the Playoff-Caliber Game ends in a tie between two or more Analysts, overtime will be determined by the traditional Tiebreakers in The General Rules and The Seeders’ Cup.
In individual match-ups, Wise Orangutan secured a first tiebreaker over Big Tuna in the first quarter and Kal Krome secured a first tiebreaker over The Strategist. In the third quarter, Little Tuna secures a first tiebreaker over B-Reezy after the Cowboys gun down the Lions.
After three quarters, Little Tuna, Big Tuna, and Wise Orangutan have tallied two Correct Home Team picks for the second tiebreaker. All but The Strategist has at least one Correct Home Team pick.
In Week 16, Dallas earned home-field advantage in the playoffs (5 points), Pittsburgh earned a division title (3 points) and Kansas City clinched a playoff birth (2 points). Ten points were the maximum additional scores, and no Analysts earned all 10 points in the third tiebreaker.
The Bookie, Wise Orangutan, Kal Krome, and Atwork lead the third tiebreaker with 8 seeder points.
Tiebreakers at End of the Third Quarter in the Playoff-Caliber Game (Seeders’ Cup III)
