Super Trifecta Bowl II | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl II are:
Analysts may pick from any of the four games, including the game without any Analyst Home Teams (Steelers vs. Bengals). Analysts with one of the top two seeds in each conference are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Wildcard round will earn 1 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Wildcard Round, 1 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking the Texans to beat The Strategist’s Chiefs or the yet-to-be-renamed-Washington team to beat Minds Blank’s Packers.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Steelers (3 points), Chiefs (1 point), Seahawks (3 points), and Packers (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, If Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Seahawks to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If Kal Krome correctly picks the Seahawks to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 1 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (7 total possible). If Kal Krome does not include the Seahawks in his trifecta picks, a victory by the Seahawks will yield only the Playoff Victory point (1 total).
Strategery
As we – the Clearinghouse and The Bookie – have invested money, time, and thought in our research to devise the best possible test of predictive skill, we must point out several considerations for the new point system:
1) Points in the early rounds are integral. If a Home Team is eliminated in the Wildcard or Divisional round, the Analyst will not be able to earn Playoff Victory or Reverse PCFecta points in later rounds. And, the base trifecta points for picking three correctly goes down each week.
2) Head-to-head competitions will make or break the Analysts strategy. Kal Krome or B-Reezy will be on thin ice for the rest of the competition depending on which Home Team loses this week.
3) If an Analyst’s Home Team falters, be a proud player hater. Most of the un-owned teams are low seeds and yield Player Hater points plus Seeder Redux points with each correct pick to win.
In other words, it is not the Horse the Analyst rides in, but the Horse the Analyst rides out that may win the Trophy!
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
In the first year of the World Football Trifecta League, only 2 away teams upset their hosts (20%) – the lowest upset rate of the past 13 years. The Ravens upset the Steelers in the Wildcard round and the Colts upset the Broncos in the Divisional round. Three away teams lost close games on questionable officiating calls: Lions to Cowboys (flag|no flag), Cowboys to Packers (catch|no catch), and Ravens to Patriots (legal formation|illegal formation). In the Championship round, the Packers gave away the NFC Championship to the Seahawks with an onside recovery. It could have been 6 away team wins just as easily as it was 2.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
