Day: October 27, 2015

Leg 4 Scenarios:

Heading into the final Leg of the Play Haters Preakness, every Analyst remains within striking distance of the leader. There are too many scenarios to consider in full, but here are the most likely:

1. The Strategist wins if she gets a perfect hater trifecta (3 points).
2. If The Strategist earns a partial hater trifecta (2 points), she will reach four points and eliminate all Analysts except Little Tuna. If Little Tuna earns a perfect hater trifecta (3 points), the Preakness then will be determined by tiebreakers. If The Strategist picks her Rams, she will likely own the third tiebreaker over Little Tuna due to turnover production (currently 3.5 per game). If not, Little Tuna will win the tiebreaker with 2 Home Team selections.
3. If the Strategist does not reach 4 trifecta points total, then Little Tuna or the Bookie can win with a perfect hater trifecta. Little Tuna holds the tiebreaker over The Bookie in case of a tie.
4. If the Preakness is won with 3 trifecta points total, then there are many options. Those Analysts with zero trifectas currently must pick perfect hater trifectas (3 points). In that case, the Analysts in best position to win the Preakness are:
   1. Little Tuna — If she picks a partial hater trifecta with the Patriots (2 points) in Leg 4, she will win the tiebreakers with 3 correct Home Team selections and outright over The Bookie. Without the Patriots in her trifecta, she may lose on tiebreakers to Minds Blank or The Strategist.
   2. Minds Blank — If the Packers beat the Broncos, her Home Team will have vanquished three other steeds and given her an edge in Home Team Selections and turnovers per game.
   3. The Strategist – If she takes the Rams in a one point trifecta, she will have two correct Home Team selections and win on tiebreakers with turnovers per game. Without the Rams, she will win most tiebreakers on turnovers per game.
   4. Big Tuna — If the Broncos beat the Packers, he will have the first tiebreaker over Minds Blank and likely the third tiebreaker (3 turnovers per game) over most Analysts.
   5. The Bookie — If the Bookie takes the Colts, she may be able to force a tiebreaker with turnovers, but will need help.
   6. The rest of the Analysts are breathing dust and need most Analysts to wipe out rather than end in a tie.
5. If the Preakness is won with two points, the possibilities are too many to consider!

Don’t forget about Box Outs! If two or more Analysts have the same picks, an Analyst with a lead effectively boxes out and defeats the other Analyst(s) before the games are played. The three Analysts with points have that additional advantage over the nil point nags. It is a game of skill, you know, not chance!