PC-Fecta Derby Scoring System
Two years in a row, the PC-Fecta Derby was not a close contest in the fourth week. Last year, Big Tuna won in week 3. This year, five of eight Analysts had been eliminated and two Analysts needed a trifecta PLUS all bonus points.
This thread is for the Analysts to discuss and comment on the point system of the PC-Fecta Derby.
The strange thing is the first two years, an Analyst had a team that dominated two out of the first three weeks AND also got trifectas. It is not a given. If someone had the Cardinals or the Steelers as a Home Team, Little Tuna would not have had 6 points in the third week and everyone would have been in the contest. Both teams were playoff contenders last year, so they would have been a good option this year. Last year, the Pats were 2-2 in the first four weeks, so it was not a given that they play so well each year (in September anyway – before the fear of another loss invites the temptation to cheat).
The Derby point scoring is set up to award an Analyst for picking a good team in September AND for picking trifectas. Right now, Analysts have three undefeated teams – last year there were no undefeated teams in the football league after week four. There was a greater diversity of team fortunes this year and an Analyst with an undefeated team won.
This year we added the defensive bonus. Funny enough, the offensive bonus was awarded every week AND the defensive bonus was awarded only 1 of 4 weeks. By chance, trifecta winners in the PC-Fecta Derby have also been an offensive power. Considering we are only ~37% at picking trifectas, I find it strange that the trifecta picks and offensive bonuses have always been won together. It has worked as designed, but the results by Leg 3 have made the Derby the least competitive Race.
There are three alternatives for the future proposed by others through The Bookie (none of which would have changed the outcome – Little Tuna wins in all systems).
- Calculate bonus points only for those Analysts who earned trifectas: If The Clearinghouse did that, four more defensive points would have been awarded (due to a tie in week 4) — Orangutan (week 1), Big Tuna (week 3 and 4), and B-Reezy (Week 4) . The current defensive point system worked to keep Minds Blank in contention with 2 points. With this system, Big Tuna and Orangutan may have been in contention in the fourth leg of the race but then lost because they split the bonuses in the final week (an interesting outcome).
- Do not allow Analysts to take the same teams each week (other than Home Team): The Clearinghouse is not able to recalculate points, but if Analysts could not take the same horse two weeks in a row unless it is the Home Team, then the Analysts with winning Home Teams in the first month would have an added advantage. Now, almost all Analysts could have taken the Patriots, Packers, and Broncos for 3 points by week three to remain in contention. This rule would make that impossible. If Analysts could not ride other Analysts’ winning teams week in and week out, it would reduce all Analysts’ chances for trifectas and bonuses. That would (The Clearinghouse surmises) reduce correct trifectas below the current rate of ~37% after two years.
- Award 1 base trifecta point for 2 correct picks and 3 trifecta points for 3 correct picks. The Clearinghouse re-scored under this system and it would not have added more competitors in the final leg AND it would have made it easier Little Tuna to earn one extra trifecta point to win against her two contenders in Leg 4 (she picked two correctly in the final week).
PC-Fecta Derby is part picking trifectas AND part picking a Home Team that starts the year well. The Clearinghouse thinks the Derby works in that respect. Option 1 seems like the one that would add more contenders in the final leg of the race next year.
Add comments or other suggestions below.
