The Picks Are In
See the scenarios for the final three Analysts of the competition before the first two games of the Championship Round….
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Category: Season III
Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Scenarios
With only four teams remaining, there are only four possible correct pick twos in the conference championships: PIT-GB, NE-GB, PIT-ATL, NE-ATL.
Five Analysts have been eliminated after the Divisional Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl: B-Reezy, Little Tuna, Kal Krome, Wise Orangutan, and Big Tuna. The most that any of these Analysts can score is 9 points, but they trail the current leader by 10 points.
By rule, the remaining three Analysts have to pick their respective Home Teams to win the conference championships. By current standings, the scenarios before picks are:
The Strategist (14 points): If Pittsburgh wins, the Strategist will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If Atlanta wins the NFC Championship, The Strategist will win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Green Bay wins also, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III likely will be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Pittsburgh loses, she may be able to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if Atlanta wins against Green Bay… but only if she suffers the humiliation of picking New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
The Bookie (13 points): If Green Bay wins, the Bookie will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. IF New England wins the AFC Championship, The Bookie will earn all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points for 8 points total and win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Pittsburgh wins, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III may be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Green Bay loses, she still has an outside chance to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if New England beats Pittsburgh and Atlanta — and, if The Strategist does not pick New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
Note on The Strategist vs. The Bookie — Should their Home Teams lose, The Strategist still can gain 2 Seeder Redux points by correctly picking Green Bay to win, but an Atlanta pick and win earns nothing more for The Strategist. On the other hand, a correct pick by The Bookie for Pittsburgh earns 2 Seeder Redux points or for New England earns 3 Player Hater points. Despite trailing by one point, The Bookie has more paths to victory.
Atwork (7 points): Atwork has one clear path to victory in Super Trifecta Bowl III. He must pick Atlanta and Atlanta must win. New England must also win so that he earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points and blocks The Strategist from sprinting down the homestretch. If he wisely picks New England to win (given the scenario), he will earn 3 Player Hater points for a total of 9 points this weekend. Then, in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, Atlanta must defeat New England so that he earns the trifecta and one Seeder Redux point for a total of 11 points in the Championship Round. With 18 points total, The Clearinghouse estimates (with 99% certainty) that The Bookie and The Strategist will not be able to keep pace with Atwork.
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
Analysts must pick from the two games in the conference championships. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Championship round must take against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 points in the Championship round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship round will earn 3 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins.
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Championship round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Championship Round, New England can earn 3 Player Hater points against each Home Team played in the round (max = 2 games).
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win in the conference championships: Pittsburgh (2 points) and Packers (2 points). World football championship Seeder Redux will be determined after the conference championships.
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 2 Seeder Redux points (2 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 2 Seeder Redux points, 3 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible).
Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
The three Analysts with new Home Team selections to start the postseason control their destinies headed into the Championship Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl.
The Strategist (14) makes her move down the backstretch with a trifecta, Home Team win, 2 Reverse PC-Fecta points, and 4 Seeder Redux points! She takes a one-point lead into the far turn.
The Bookie (13) continues her sprint with a trifecta, (unlikely) Home Team win with 3 Seeder Redux points.
Atwork (7) gives chase in third with a Home Team win and 1 Reverse PC-Fecta point. He can take the Super Trifecta Bowl with an unlikely professional football championship by his Home Team in Atlanta!
The rest of the field is in dire straights headed into the final turn. Big Tuna (4), with 3 Base trifecta points, is in the best position provided he can end in a points tie with Atwork.
The Clearinghouse is still calculating win scenarios to determine if Wise Orangutan, Kal Krome, B-Reezy, and Little Tuna remain in the competition at the final stretch.
No un-owned teams played an Analyst’s Home Team so there were no Player Hater points to be won in the divisional round. The Patriots progressed, however, and can score 6 Player Hater points in the Championship Round.
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
The Picks Are In
The Pick Results Are In
The Bookie and The Strategist net their second trifectas of the postseason to move ahead of the competition.
Atwork and Little Tuna pick up two Correct Picks including their Home Teams. Big Tuna also picks two correctly.
The rest of the stumbled through the Divisional Round as their Home Teams faltered.
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team, but do not have to pick that game.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Divisional round will earn 2 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Divisional round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Divisional Round, there are no Player Hater points possible (the two un-owned teams remaining play each other this week).
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Texans (3 points), Steelers (1 point), Packers (3 points), and Seahawks (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 2 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible). If The Bookie does not include the Packers in her trifecta picks, a victory by the Packers will yield only the Playoff Victory point (2 total).
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Wildcard Round
The Bookie (6) enters the far stretch with a two length lead over The Strategist (4). Only one length behind her (3), Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Atwork give chase. B-Reezy and Wise O. (1 each) struggle to make the first turn. Little Tuna (0) has not noticed the gates have opened!
In the tiebreakers, Big, Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get base trifectas (3). Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get Playoff Victories (1) with their Home Teams.
The Bookie takes the offensive PC-Fecta (1), while Kal takes the defensive PC-Fecta (2). B-Reezy, Wise O., and Bookie net a Player Hater (1).
NONE of the playoff road teams won in the wildcard round this year, so there were no Seeder Redux points to be won! Last year, all of the road teams won.
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Wildcard Round
The Bookie enters the far stretch with a two length lead over The Strategist. Only one length behind, Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Atwork give chase. B-Reezy and Wise O. struggle to make the first turn. Little Tuna has not noticed the gates have opened!
Big, Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get base trifectas (3). Kal, Bookie, and Strategist get Playoff Victories (1) with their Home Teams. The Bookie takes the offensive PC-Fecta (1), while Kal takes the defensive PC-Fecta (2). B-Reezy, Wise O., and Bookie net a Player Hater (1).
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Wildcard Round
The Picks Are In
The Results Are In
Big Tuna, The Bookie, Atwork, and The Strategist surge out of the first turn with correct trifectas. Wise O. and Kal Krome pick two correctly, while B-Reezy and Little Tuna net only one correct pick each.
Last year, all of the road/away teams won. This year, NONE of the road/away teams won this year, so there are no upsets by home field advantage in the first round!
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games | Wildcard Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts with one of the top two seeds in each conference are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Wildcard round will earn 1 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Wildcard Round, 1 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking the Texans to beat Big Tuna’s Raiders, the Dolphins to beat The Strategist’s Steelers, or the Giants to beat The Bookie’s Opposite-of-Chicago.
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Dolphins (3 points), Raiders (1 point), Lions (3 points), and Giants (1 point).
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If B-Reezy correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 1 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (7 total possible). If B-Reezy does not include the Lions in his trifecta picks, a victory by the Lions will yield only the Playoff Victory point (1 total).
Strategery
As we – the Clearinghouse and The Bookie – have invested money, time, and thought in our research to devise the best possible test of predictive skill, we must point out several considerations for the point system in place since last year:
1) Points in the early rounds are integral. If a Home Team is eliminated in the Wildcard or Divisional round, the Analyst will not be able to earn Playoff Victory or Reverse PCFecta points in later rounds. And, the base trifecta points for picking three correctly goes down each week.
2) Head-to-head competitions will make or break the Analysts strategy. For the second year in a row, Kal Krome and B-Reezy face each other in the wildcard round!
3) If an Analyst’s Home Team falters, be a proud player hater. New England is unowned! The other three un-owned teams are low seeds (3+) and yield Player Hater points plus Seeder Redux points with each correct pick to win.
In other words, it is not the Horse the Analyst rides in, but the Horse the Analyst rides out that may win the Trophy!
Upset Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
In the first year of the World Football Trifecta League, only 2 away teams upset their hosts (20%) – the lowest upset rate of the past 13 years. The Ravens upset the Steelers in the Wildcard round and the Colts upset the Broncos in the Divisional round. Three away teams lost close games on questionable officiating calls: Lions to Cowboys (flag|no flag), Cowboys to Packers (catch|no catch), and Ravens to Patriots (legal formation|illegal formation). In the Championship round, the Packers gave away the NFC Championship to the Seahawks with an onside recovery. It could have been 6 away team wins just as easily as it was 2.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
