Going into the clubhouse turn, B-Reezy and Wise Orangutan are running neck-n-neck with 4 Trifecta points, 1 Correct Home Team Pick, and 3 Seeder points — each!
Big Tuna in third follows closely with 3 Trifecta points, 1 Correct Home Team Pick, and 2 Seeder points. Atwork gives chase in fourth place with 1 Trifecta point and 1 Correct Home Team Pick.
As far as Bad Beats(tm ESPN) can go, Jimmy V’s Home Team squandered a 99.9% chance of winning in Miami:
Patriots Win Likelihood at Miami 2018
Definitely, the most unlikely turn of events in WFTL Race history.
Six Analysts trip on the Miami hook and ladder out of the gate, while The Strategist slips on the Oakland baseball turf to start The Seeders’ Cup.
Atwork: Packers*/Bears/Chargers
B-Reezy: Chiefs*/Saints/Bears
Big Tuna: Saints*/Chargers/Seahawks
Little Tuna: Chargers*/Patriots/Steelers
Craft Brew: Rams*/Patriots/Chargers
Roxy Trot: Texans*/Patriots/Saints
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Rams/Saints
Sponge Mom: Saints/Patriots/Chiefs
Wise Orangutan: Seahawks*/Saints/Chiefs
The Strategist: Saints/Chargers/Steelers
The Bookie: Steelers*/Saints/Patriots
* denotes Home Team
Spit Box:
(1) Hopefully my new team will bring me some good luck!
(2) Sadly didn’t get to pick the teams I wanted but I need a trifecta!!!
(3) Wait!!! Wait!!! We don’t know what we’re doing. 😳
(4) I got three wrong last week. That’s a trifecta!!! I want my point!!!
(5) Haha, hopefully I get 3 of anything too, predicting losses is just as impressive as wins.
(6) We survived the Fibonacci people!!!!!
The Results Are (Coming) In:
Atwork: Packers*/Bears/Chargers (1 point)
B-Reezy: Chiefs* (1)/Saints (2)/Bears (4 points)
Big Tuna: Saints* (2)/Chargers/Seahawks (3 points)
Little Tuna: Chargers*/Patriots/Steelers
Craft Brew: Rams*/Patriots/Chargers
Roxy Trot: Texans*/Patriots/Saints (2)
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Rams/Saints (2)
Sponge Mom: Saints (2)/Patriots/Chiefs (1)
Wise Orangutan: Seahawks*/Saints (2)/Chiefs (1) (4 points)
The Strategist: Saints (2)/Chargers/Steelers
The Bookie: Steelers*/Saints (2)/Patriots
The Analysts have submitted their papers and claimed their Home Teams to start the race. The Claim Box for The Seeders’ Cup V is:
Claim Box for The Seeders’ Cup V
Slate of Games
Slate of Games for The Seeders’ Cup V
The slate of games for The Seeders’ Cup V includes 8 head-to-head competitions this month (the first tiebreaker in the race).
In Leg 1, through the clubhouse turn, we kick off The Seeders’ Cup with one head-to-heads as Craft Brew confronts Sponge Mom at the Midway.
In Leg 2, the backstretch, may prove to be the most grueling part of the race with four head-to-head contests and only 7 games to Pick: Little Tuna charges B-Reezy on TNF, Atwork cleans house at Sponge Mom’s Midway, Jimmy V salutes The Bookie, and Big Tuna swims upstream to face The Strategist.
In Leg 3, the far turn, Craft Brew looks to collects beads from Big Tuna and B-Reezy flies high to Wise O.
in Leg 4, homestretch, The Strategist analyzes her chances against Big Tuna for the second time in the month.
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There is only one TNF game, one Saturday matinee, at least three SNF games (subject to flexes), and two MNF games.
Picks
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may NOT pick their Claimed team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win, but Correct Home Team Picks remains the second tiebreaker. See the complete The Seeders’ Cup Rules for more detail.
Email picks in private to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. Thursday games are due by 2pm local times on Thursdays (flexible per The Bookie’s time in special circumstances). All three Picks are due on Saturdays at 2pm local times. No Picks or Re-Picks are accepted after the weekly Picks are released to other Analysts by The Bookie.
Releasing and claiming a new Home Team before the start of a new Crown Race is optional. Mid-season, the order of Claims is determined by current Home Team playoff strength. Analysts who currently own playoff-seeded Home Teams are in bold.
The order then is:
1. Atwork (Packers, 11th NFC)
2. Roxy Trot (Eagles, 8th NFC)
3. The Strategist (Panthers, 7th NFC)
4. Wise O. (Seahawks, 5th NFC)
5. Little Tuna (Chargers, 5th AFC )
6. The Bookie (Steelers, 4th AFC)
7. Sponge Mom (Bears, 3rd NFC)
8. Jimmy V (Patriots, 2nd AFC)*
9. Big Tuna (Saints, 2nd NFC)*
10. B-Reezy (Chiefs, 1st AFC)*
11. Craft Brew (Rams, 1st NFC)*
* The nfl.com playoff picture is operational: http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture. I applied tiebreaker rules when two Analysts have the same playoff seeding in the two different conferences. Patriots have a worse record than the Saints and Chiefs have a worse record than the Rams (and lost to them).
If you choose to release your Home Team, the Analysts listed above you will Claim before you from all available Home Teams (including those released).
Little Tuna holds onto her slim edge over The Strategist to take The Seeders Cup IV!
Both earning 16 Trifecta points, Little Tuna heads across the finish line with 3 Correct Home Team Picks just ahead of the Strategist with 2 Correct Home Team Picks.
In third place, Wise O. beats The Bookie by a nose: both have 11 Trifecta points and 2 Correct Home Team Picks, but in the third tiebreaker, Wise O. holds the advantage with 15 Seeder points to 11 Seeder points.
In fifth comes Craft Brew with 10 Trifecta points, shaking his head at the collapse of the Saints in the final minute.
In sixth, Atwork finishes with 9 Trifecta points, followed by Big Tuna (7th, 12 Seeeder points) and B-Reezy (8th, 10 Seeder points). Kal Krome takes ninth after a disappointing month by the Seahawks.
Trifecta Points
Final Results of The Seeders Cup IV
Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers for the Final Results of The Seeders Cup IV
The Bookie: Steelers/Seahawks/Saints
The Big Tuna: Steelers/Saints/Ravens
Little Tuna: Patriots/Ravens/Falcons
Wise Orangutan: Ravens/Seahawks/Patriots
The Strategist: Steelers/Saints/Ravens
Kal Krome: Steelers/Seahawks/Saints
B-Reezy: Steelers/Seahawks/Rams
Atwork: Steelers/Saints/Ravens
Craft Brew: Steelers/Patriots/Saints
Featured Analyst of the Week
The Wise Orangutan
Our Celebrity Analyst Roasters:
The Bookie: There are some that are wise and others that are otherwise. The Wise Orangutan has never been known to send a reader to the dictionary. He can compress the most words into the smallest ideas of any analysis I met. When he worked at a call center he changed his name to Who-rang-utang. I’m not trying to insinuate he’s a bad analyst. He’s just not a good one.
Little Tuna: Wise O invented this game, right? Means he made the rules and everything, right? So he should be an expert on this game, right? Soooo, he must be winning every time. I mean. What idiot can’t win his own game??
Big Tuna: Big Tuna walks up to the mike. Clears his throat. And says “Dummkopf.” Then stutters “hilahilaʻole.” Then laughs while saying “leathcheann”. Finally walks away muttering “stultus”.
Kal Krome: How dumb is the Wise Orangutan? He puts suntan lotion on his bananas so they don’t peel!
B-Reezy: Your picks remind me of a saying, “Go back to fucking fourth grade”!
Atwork: Huh😴
Craft Brew: What happen if you cross a parrot with Wise O??
Nobody is sure. But if they opened its Mouth to speak. You’d listen!
The Strategist is sick with a fever. We all wish her well. 😘
Happy New Year to All!!!
The Pick Results Are In:
The Bookie: Steelers/Seahawks/Saints(2)
The Big Tuna: Steelers/Saints(2)/Ravens
Little Tuna: Patriots(4)/Ravens/Falcons(1)
Wise Orangutan: Ravens/Seahawks/Patriots(4)
The Strategist: Steelers/Saints(2)/Ravens
Kal Krome: Steelers/Seahawks/Saints(2)
B-Reezy: Steelers/Seahawks/Rams
Atwork: Steelers/Saints(2)/Ravens
Craft Brew: Steelers/Patriots(4)/Saints(2)
Playoff clinchers (week 17):
Patriots | Homefield Advantage | 4 points
Saints | Division Title | 2 points (clinched despite losing)
The scenarios include only the teams on our Slate of Games. To see all scenarios for Week 16, see the link below. A “+” indicates two or more games determine the berth scenario. An “OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
As this is the final week and only a few seed positions remain, the scenarios are listed in order of Seeder point value. Below the Seeder point scenarios are estimates for what each Analyst needs to earn The Seeders Cup. Reminder for the co-leaders: tie games bust a trifecta, but an Analyst can earn Seeder points should a game end in a tie or a team back into the playoffs despite losing.
AFC Homefield Advantage (4 points): Patriots or Steelers?
Patriots (current AFC 1st seed): 1) NE win OR 2) PIT loss OR 3) NE tie + PIT tie Steelers (current AFC 2nd seed): 1) PIT win + NE loss or tie OR 2) PIT tie + NE loss
Note: If Patriots win, a Steelers win is worth no Seeder points. If you pick both teams, only one will be worth 4 points.
NFC First-round Bye (3 points): Panthers?
The Vikings are currently the third-seed and control their own destiny. If they lose, then
Panthers (current NFC 5th seed): 1) CAR win + NO loss or tie + MIN loss + LAR loss or tie
Note: All four games must end in this manner for the Panthers to jump from 5th to 2nd seed.
NFC South Division (2 points): Saints or Panthers?
Saints (current NFC 4th seed): 1) NO win OR 2) CAR loss OR 3) NO tie + CAR tie Panthers (current NFC 5th seed): 1) CAR win + NO loss or tie OR 2) CAR tie + NO loss
Note: If the Vikings take the first-round bye (3), Panthers can still earn the division title Seeder points (2). If both Vikings and Saints win to take both, then Panthers are worth 0 Seeder points. If you pick both Saints and Panthers, only one will be worth points.
NFC Wildcard Playoff Berth (1 point): Seahawks or Falcons
Falcons (current AFC 6th seed): 1) ATL win OR 2) SEA loss OR 3) ATL tie + SEA tie Seahawks (current AFC 7th seed): 1) SEA win + ATL loss or tie OR 2) SEA tie + ATL loss
Note: If Falcons win, a Seahawks win is worth no Seeder points. If you pick both teams, only one will be worth 1 point.
AFC Wildcard Playoff Berth (1 point): Ravens
Ravens (current AFC 5th seed): 1) BAL win or tie OR 2) BUF loss or tie OR 3) TEN loss or tie
The maximum winning Trifecta points in Leg 4 are 9 points: AFC Homefield (Patriots or Steelers), NFC First-round Bye (Panthers), and AFC/NFC Wildcard (Ravens, Falcons, or Seahawks). More likely, due to the Panthers scenario, are 8 points: AFC Homefield (Patriots or Steelers), NFC South Division (Panthers or Saints), and AFC/NFC Wildcard (Ravens, Falcons, or Seahawks). That allows 12 different combinations for a winning trifecta. If an Analyst needs fewer than 8/9 points to win, then other games are available for picks.
The strength of each Analyst position in descending order is:
Little Tuna: Needs only 5 Trifecta points to beat all but The Strategist. If she remains tied with The Strategist, she needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and Seeder Points (+3 currently).
The Strategist: Needs only 5 Trifecta points to beat all but Little Tuna. If she remains tied with Little Tuna, she needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake her in Seeder Points (-3 currently).
Wise Orangutan: Needs 6 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) OR NFC First-round Bye (Panthers) + two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). He needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-5 currently) in the event of a tie.
The Bookie: Needs 6 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. She must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) OR NFC First-round Bye (Panthers) + two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). She needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-7 currently) in the event of a tie.
Craft Brew: Needs 7 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers). He also needs either 1) an NFC South winner (Saints or Panthers) to catch the leaders OR 2) two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). He also needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake the leaders in Seeder Points (-6 currently) in the event of a tie.
Atwork: Needs 8 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC South winner (Saints or Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. He also needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-7 currently) in the event of a tie.
Big Tuna: Needs 9 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC first-round bye (Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. If he plays for a tie at 16 points, he needs both the Patriots and Panthers to lose, so he must pick the Steelers AND Saints AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks). If the tie scenario plays out, he will overtake Little Tuna and The Strategist with 3 Correct Home Team Picks.
B-Reezy: Needs 9 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC first-round bye (Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. Since he can’t pick his Home Team Chiefs and earn 8 or 9 points, if he plays for a tie at 16 points, he will lose the tiebreaker on Seeder Points (-8 currently) in the event of a tie.
Kal Krome: We are afraid Kal has been eliminated. Playing for pride!
Scenarios | Analyst of the Year | Week 16:
The Strategist has built an insurmountable lead down the homestretch!
Another blazing week by the Analysts! Every Analyst nets a mutli-point Trifecta, some more than others. A photofinish in the making!
After surging down the backstretch, Little Tuna attacked the far turn and earned a whopping 10-points in Leg 3. She drew even with the Analyst (16 Trifecta points) and leads by a nose with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 16 Seeder points (third tiebreaker).
The Strategist gave it all she had around the far turn, but came up just short of the lead at the top of the home stretch. She too has 16 Trifecta points and 2 Correct Home Team Picks, but trails with 13 Seeder points.
Wise O. kept up his pace to remain in contention for third place, but The Bookie raced past B-Reezy and Craft Brew to take a share of third. Wise O. has the edge for the moment with 11 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and 11 Seeder points over The Bookie’s 11 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and 9 Seeder points.
Despite a strong showing around the far turn, Craft Brew slides into fifth place with 10 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and 10 Seeder points. He leads Atwork in sixth by one length: 9 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and 11 Seeder points.
In seventh, Big Tuna and B-Reezy are in a dead heat as both Analysts have 8 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and 8 Seeder points.
In ninth with 5 Trifecta points, 1 Correct Home Team Pick, and 6 Seeder points, Kal Krome trails on the back of his aging and increasingly unpredictable Seahawks!
Standings after Leg 3 of The Seeders Cup IV
Tiebreakers
Craft Brew holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Wise Orangutan. Atwork holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over The Bookie. Little Tuna holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Craft Brew. The Bookie holds a tiebreaker over Kal Krome.
Every Analysts but Kal Krome has picked up a second Correct Home Team Pick.
The co-leaders, Little Tuna and The Strategist currently have the edge in Seeder points if the Cup comes down to a third tiebreaker.
The scenarios include only the teams on our Slate of Games. To see all scenarios for Week 16, see the link below. A “+” indicates two or more games determine the berth scenario. An “OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
AFC
Patriots clinch homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs (4 points) with NE win + PIT loss + JAX loss or tie.
Patriots clinch a first-round bye (3 points) with 1) NE win + PIT loss OR 2) NE win + JAX loss or tie OR 3) NE tie + JAX loss
Steelers clinch a first-round bye (3 points) with 1) PIT win + JAX loss or tie OR 2) PIT tie + JAX loss OR
Chiefs clinch AFC West (2 points) with KC win OR 2) LAC loss OR 3) KC tie + LAC tie
Titans clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) TEN win + BAL loss + BUF loss
NFC
Eagles clinch homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs (4 points) with 1) PHI win OR 2) MIN loss OR 3) PHI tie + MIN tie
Rams clinch NFC West (2 points) with 1) LAR win or tie OR 2) SEA loss or tie
Rams clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) DET loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss
Saints clinch NFC South (2 points) with 1) NO win + CAR loss
Saints clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) NO win or tie OR 2) DAL-SEA tie
Panthers clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) CAR win or tie OR 2) DAL-SEA tie
Falcons clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) ATL win OR 2) ATL tie + DAL-SEA tie + DET loss or tie
Note: The unowned postseason contender Titans host the Rams and unowned postseason contender Falcons visit the Saints in Leg 3. To see all scenarios including the Jaguars and Vikings see the link below.
