Tag: Scenarios

Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | TGWSNBN

Super Trifecta Bowl IX

The column labeled “Conference” at the right shows the seed and short name of the teams in the Conference Championships. Analysts will be Picking Three from these two games PLUS the two teams that make it to TGWSNBN at the far right. Three Correct Picks in the Conference and TGWSNBN games makes a Conference Trifecta (+6 Trifecta Points).

Slate of Games

Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Conference Champions Round | Results
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Conference Champions Round | Results

Analysts with No Claim AND Analysts whose Home Team has been eliminated from the playoffs may Pick Three from any of the 2 teams in the World Football Championship (TGWSNBN). Analysts with a Claim may Pick her Home Team to Win!

Bonus Points for Each Analyst (With a Home Team Claim by Current Standing)

Standings with First Tiebreaker (Revised) | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Conference Championship Round
Standings with First Tiebreaker (Revised) | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Conference Championship Round

Roxy Trot (20 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Roxy Trot must Pick the Eagles to Win.

She also controls the Reverse PC-Fecta points with a 31-7 Eagles victory in the Conference Championships (+3). If the Eagle Win, she will earn a *lame* Trifecta (+3) and secure the Reverse PC-Fecta points in the Championship Round for 26 points total. No other Analyst can reach more than 24 points, so she will Win with an Eagles victory. In other words, Roxy Trot has at least a 50% chance of Winning the Super Trifecta Bowl!

If the Eagles suffer defeat, she still has more-than-likely shot at a Win in the Super Trifecta Bowl — if she retains the Reverse PC-Fecta points (Chiefs do not Win by at least 32 to 6 points), Roxy Trot will have a minimum of 23 points before Prescience points. If the Chiefs take the offense or defense Reverse PC-Fecta, then Roxy Trot will reach only 21 to 22 points (before Prescience). The outcome that may defeat Roxy Trot is then a Chiefs victory with 32 offensive points, reducing her score to 22 points.

Therefore, we present Scenarios for other Analysts’ outcomes in the case that the Chiefs Win and Roxy Trot scores no more than 22 points (but also see below regarding Prescience points)…

Boo Boo (18 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Boo Boo must Pick the Chiefs to Win. If they do, Boo Boo completes a *base* Trifecta for 6 points to reach 21 points total. But, Roxy will still have 23 points with all 4 Reverse PC-Fecta points. So, her Chiefs also need to score 32 points or more in victory in order for to steal 1 Reverse PC-Fecta point. If that happens both Boo Boo and Roxy Trot will have 22 points each, and Boo Boo will own the first tiebreaker with 15 Base Trifecta Scores vs. 12 Base Trifecta Scores for Roxy Trot.

For Boo Boo, 22 points may not be enough if Roxy Trot or one of the Analysts below earn more Prescience points than she does. So, we consider other Analysts in the scenario where the Chiefs are victorious and both Boo Boo and Roxy Trot finish at 22 points…

Bookie (17 Trifecta Points, 9 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Bookie cannot Win on tiebreakers against either Roxy Trot or Boo Boo. She She can earn all 6 Prescience points to reach 23 points. If she Predicts the Chiefs accurately, she could Win. If she Predicts the Eagles accurately, she could Place.

Bookie (17 Trifecta Points, 9 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Bookie cannot Win on tiebreakers against either Roxy Trot or Boo Boo. She had two Incorrect Picks in the Conference Championships and is not able to add a *lame* Trifecta. Bookie can earn all 6 Prescience points to reach 23 points. If she Predicts the Chiefs accurately, she could Win by 1 point. If she Predicts the Eagles accurately, she could Place. Both outcomes assume neither Roxy Trot and Boo Boo do not earn Prescience points (if two Analysts share the same best prediction, both Analysts earn Prescience points).

Wreck It Ralph (15 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Wreck It Ralph needs one Correct Pick to earn a *lame* Trifecta (+3). If he also earns all 6 Prescience points, that will take him to 24 points. If he Predicts an Eagles victory, he can finish in Place. If he Predicts the Chiefs, he can Win if Roxy Trot and Boo Boo do not earn Prescience points.

The Strategist (13 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

The Strategist needs one Correct Pick to earn a *base* Trifecta (+3). If she also earns all 6 Prescience points, that will take her to 22 points total. If she Predicts an Eagles victory, she can Place or Show depending on the outcome for Bookie and Wreck It Ralph. If she Predicts the Chiefs, she can tie Roxy Trot and Boo Boo at 22 points in the Scenario favoring Boo Boo above. Both with have 15 Base Trifecta Scores, so the outcome will be determined by weaker tiebreakers (but we are not running Scenarios for second tiebreakers, so let the Winner be a minor mystery for now…)

We leave it at that…

For all other Analysts, 18 or more Trifecta Points to have a shot at the Win!

Share This:

Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Championship Round

Super Trifecta Bowl IX

The column labeled “Conference” at the right shows the seed and short name of the teams in the Conference Championships. Analysts will be Picking Three from these two games PLUS the two teams that make it to TGWSNBN at the far right. Three Correct Picks in the Conference and TGWSNBN games makes a Conference Trifecta (+6 Trifecta Points).

Slate of Games

Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Divisional Round Results
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Divisional Round Results

Analysts with No Claim AND Analysts whose Home Team has been eliminated from the playoffs may Pick Three from any of the 4 teams over two weeks (two for the Conference Championship and one World Football Championship two weeks later).

Analysts with a Claim may NOT Pick against his or her Home Team. In the Championship Round, such Analysts have no choice but to Pick his or her Home Team to Win — unless his or her Home Team loses in the Conference Championship!

Bonus Points for Each Analyst (With a Home Team Claim by Current Standing)

Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Divisional Round
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Divisional Round

Roxy Trot (17 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Roxy Trot must Pick the Eagles to Win.

If the Eagles Win the NFC Championship – Roxy Trot adds +3 Victory Points and becomes eligible for +1 to +3 Reverse PC-Fecta Points. If she also Correctly Picks the AFC Championship (Chiefs or Bengals), she has at least 23 (Chiefs) to 25 (Bengals) points after the Conference Championships.

Bookie (17 Trifecta Points, 9 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Bookie must Pick the 49ers to Win

If the 49ers Win the NFC Championship – Bookie adds +3 Victory Points PLUS +1 Seeder Redux points, and becomes eligible for +1 to +3 Reverse PC-Fecta Points. If she also Correctly Picks the AFC Championship (Chiefs or Bengals), she has at least 24 (Chiefs) to 26 (Bengals) points after the Conference Championships.

Wreck It Ralph (15 Trifecta Points, 12 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Wreck It Ralph must Pick the Bengals to Win

If the Bengals Win the AFC Championship – Wreck It Ralph adds +3 Victory Points PLUS +2 Seeder Redux points, and becomes eligible for +1 to +3 Reverse PC-Fecta Points. If he also Correctly Picks the NFC Championship (Eagles or 49ers), he has at least 23 (Eagles) to 24 (49ers) points after the Conference Championships.

Boo Boo (12 Trifecta Points, 9 Base [1st Tiebreaker])

Boo Boo must Pick the Chiefs to Win

If the Chiefs Win the AFC Championship – Boo Boo adds +3 Victory Points and becomes eligible for +1 to +3 Reverse PC-Fecta Points. If she also Correctly Picks the NFC Championship (Eagles or 49ers), she has at least 18 (Eagles) to 19 (49ers) points after the Conference Championships.

Analysts with No Claim and Analysts with Defeated Claims

The remaining Analysts will want to be within 6 to 9 points of the Leader headed into TGWSNBN. An accurate prediction of the final score of TGWSNBN can earn 6 points:

Prescience (TGWSNBN Only) – Analyst will predict the final score of the final game in the Championship Round (TGWSNBN). The Analyst who comes closest to predicting the Winner’s score will earn +3 Prescience *bonus* points. The Analyst who comes closest to predicting the Loser’s score also will earn +3 Prescience *bonus* points.  One Analyst can earn both Prescience *bonus* points (+6 total).

https://www.roi2partners.com/wftl/superfecta-bowl/

With a Base Trifecta (+6) and Prescience (+6), Analysts without Home Teams can add 12 more points PLUS any Seeder Redux points won by Correctly Pick the 49ers and/or Bengals in the Conference Championship and/or TGWSNBN.

For the Analysts without Home Teams, the optimal path to victory may require that none of the Analysts with a Claim earn a Base Trifecta AND/OR that Boo Boo’s Home Team Wins TGWSNBN — Boo Boo has the lowest total point potential of the remaining four Analysts with a Claim.

Share This:

Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Divisional Round

Super Trifecta Bowl IX

Slate of Games

The column labeled “Division” in the middle shows the seed and short name of the teams. Analysts will be Picking Three from these four games.

Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Wildcard Round Results
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Wildcard Round Results

Analysts with No Claim AND Analysts whose Home Team has been eliminated from the playoffs may Pick Three from any of the 8 teams.

Analysts with a Claim may NOT Pick against his or her Home Team, but such Analysts can elect not to Pick his or her Home Team to Win (in other words, Pick Three from the other three games). The cost is that the Analyst will not be eligible for PC-Fecta points (3 possible) if his or her Home Team wins the game in the Division Round, but will nonetheless receive the Playoff Victory points (+2).

Bonus Points for Each Team (Lowest to Highest Seed)

By conference, the highest seed plays the lowest seed and the two in the middle play each other. NOTE: Analysts whose Home Team lost in the Wildcard Round are NOT now Analysts with No Claim.

NFC

  • #6 NYG — Player Haters (2 points) PLUS Seeder Redux (5 points) PLUS Ex-Claimation (3 points to Analysts with No Claim only) EQUALS 7 points total or 10 points total (Analysts with No Claim).
  • #5 DAL — Seeder Redux (3 points) PLUS Playoff Victory (2 points, Big Tuna only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Big Tuna only and only if he Picks his Home Team to win) EQUALS 3 points total or 5-8 points total (Big Tuna only).
  • #2 SF — Playoff Victory (2 points, Bookie only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Bookie only and only if she Picks her Home Team to win) EQUALS 0 points total or 2-5 points total (Bookie only).
  • #1 PHI – Playoff Victory (2 points, Roxy Trot only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Roxy Trot only and only if she Picks her Home Team to win) EQUALS 0 points total or 2-5 points total (Roxy Trot only).

AFC

  • #4 JAX — Seeder Redux (3 points) PLUS Playoff Victory (2 points, Mo Money only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Mo Money only and only if she Picks her Home Team to win) EQUALS 3 points total or 5-8 points total (Mo Money only).
  • #3 CIN — Seeder Redux (1 point) PLUS Playoff Victory (2 points, Wreck It Ralph only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Wreck It Ralph only and only if he Picks his Home Team to win) EQUALS 1 points total or 3-6 points total (Wreck It Ralph only).
  • #2 BUF — Playoff Victory (2 points, The Strategist only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, The Strategist only and only if she Picks her Home Team to win) EQUALS 0 points total or 2-5 points total (The Strategist only).
  • #1 KC — Playoff Victory (2 points, Boo Boo only) PLUS PC-Fecta points (0-3, Boo Boo only and only if she Picks her Home Team to win) EQUALS 0 points total or 2-5 points total (Boo Boo only).

Analyst Head-to-Head Competitions

Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Wildcard Round
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl IX | Wildcard Round

In the Division Round 3 to 4 Analysts will have Claim to a Home Team that loses. Only 3 or 4 Analysts will have a Claim to start the Championship Round. The head-to-head competitions are (in order of current Standings point totals):

  • Big Tuna (10 points; DAL) facing Bookie (12 points; SF)
  • Wreck It Ralph (7 points; CIN) testing strength vs. wits with The Strategist (7 points; BUF)
  • Mo Money (7 points; JAX) challenging Boo Boo (6 points; KC)
  • Roxy Trot (6 points) hosts an Un-Claimed team (NYG)

In the Championship Round, the 3 to 4 Analysts with a Claim to a Home Team MUST Pick his or her Home Team to win (per the WFTL’s most cherished Rule!).

Share This:

Scenarios | Analyst of the Year IX | Week 18

Scenarios

The Seeders’ Cup IX

The current Standings are:

The Seeders' Cup IX | Standings | Leg 3
Standings after Leg 3 of The Seeders’ Cup IX

The leaders (Wise O. at 29 points) needs 21 points (of the possible 23 points) to stay ahead of all other Analysts. If Wise O. earns a *lame* Trifecta with 7 Seeder bonus points (one Homefield prediction), the target score for a Win is 39 points. Analysts at 17 points or more can beat that score with a perfect Leg 4 Seeders Cup Trifecta (23 points). Analysts below 17 points need the leaders to bust Trifectas in Week 18 in order to steal the Win in the home stretch.

Analyst of the Year IX

For the Win

Bookie can secure the Championship with a Trifecta OR Big Tuna busts a Trifecta + she earns one Correct Pick.

Big Tuna must earn a Trifecta AND Bookie busts a Trifecta.

The Strategist must earn a Trifecta + Bookie earns 0 (zero) Correct Picks + Big Tuna busts a Trifecta – and that only ties Bookie to send the AoY to a playoff!!!

For a Claim to a Home Team in Super Trifecta Bowl IX (or To Avoid Relegation)

Currently, KateTDid and Boo Boo share 12th place at 4 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks. B-Reezy, Little Tuna, and Atwork cannot surpass either with a Trifecta so theses three Analysts must Win The Seeders’ Cup to retain a avoid Relegation.

If KateTDid and Boo Boo earn Trifectas, the cut for a Claim / Relegation can become has high as 5 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks. No Analyst at or below Mo Money (5 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks) is safe. These Analysts face Relegation:

  • Mo Money (7th place)
  • Sponge Mom (8th place)
  • Wise Orangutan (9th place)
  • Bug Bug (10th place)
  • Craft Brew (11th place)
  • KateTDid (12th place, tie)
  • Boo Boo (12th place, tie)
  • Woody (14th place)

If an Analyst in this list busts a Trifecta and EVERY Analyst below that Analyst earns a Trifecta, that Analyst can finish in 13th place (Relegation).

For instance, Mo Money with 0 Correct Picks in Week 18 could finish in a tie with KateTDid and Boo Boo for 11th place at 5 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks — one of the three will become the Analyst with No Claim by coin flip.

In addition, if the Analyst that Wins The Seeders’ Cup finishes at 13th place or lower in the AoY rankings, that Analyst avoids Relegation and the Analyst at 12th place in the AoY rankings will face Relegation.

Ergo, every Analyst from 7th to 17th place still has something to play for in either The Seeders’ Cup Win or the Analyst of the Year Standings!

Share This:

Scenarios | Analyst of the Year IX | Week 17

Scenarios

The Seeders’ Cup IX

To be in contention in Leg 4 of The Seeders’ Cup IX, Analysts must be within a point spread determined by the number of *bonus* Seeder points still available — unfortunately, that number is not known before Leg 3 is complete. Bills and Bengals play each other, so either the AFC Homefield Advantage (+7) or AFC North Division Title (+3) will be available in Leg 4.

There will be at least one other Division Title (+3) open: Jaguars or Titans in the AFC South. Minimum difference with the leaders will be 12 points if Bills win and 16 points if Bengals win. If neither Homefield Advantage is secured, then Analysts will need to be only 22 points within the leader after Leg 3.

Analyst of the Year IX

To be in contention in Week 18, an Analyst has to be within 1 Trifecta AND 3 Correct Picks of the leader after Week 17. We are down to six Analysts for the Win. With two weeks remaining, here are the mathematical possibilities for the Win for all six Analysts….

Bookie For the Win…

Bookie (8 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks) needs just 1 Trifecta and 4 Correct Picks to control her destiny in the final two weeks. No other Analyst can get to 9 Trifectas and 40 Correct Picks. She can Win outright in Week 17 with a Trifecta AND IF both The Strategist and Big Tuna bust (2 Trifecta lead with 1 Week left).

Anything less, and then…

The Strategist for the Win…

The Strategist (7 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks) could tie or beat Bookie with 9 Trifectas and 39 Correct Picks to end the season. She needs two straight Trifectas to control her destiny over all other Analysts with the exception of Bookie. If The Strategist finishes at 8 Trifectas, the other five contenders can surpass her on Correct Picks.

Big Tuna for the Win…

Big Tuna (7 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) can reach 9 Trifectas and 37 Correct Picks with two straight Trifectas. If Bookie adds one Trifecta in Week 17 or 18, Bookie will beat Big Tuna on Correct Picks (her minimum will be 39 Correct Picks). He also needs The Strategist to earn no more than 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks. If Big Tuna finishes at 8 Trifectas, the other five contenders can surpass him on Correct Picks.

Roxy Trot for the Win…

Roxy Trot (6 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks) has as many Correct Picks as Bookie – the first tiebreaker. If she closes the season with two straight Trifectas, Roxy Trot will have 8 Trifectas and 42 Correct Picks: enough to outscore all three current leaders and the (below) challengers if the season ends at 8 Trifectas. If Roxy Trot adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, she is eliminated from the Win.

Jimmy V for the Win…

Jimmy V (6 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks) can end the season with 8 Trifectas and 39 Correct Picks. If Bookie earns 0 Trifectas and fewer than 4 Correct Picks, he can overtake her. Jimmy V also needs The Strategist and Big Tuna to finish with less than 9 Trifectas AND Roxy Trot to finish with less than 8 Trifectas. If Jimmy V adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, he is eliminated from the Win.

Wreck It Ralph for the Win…

Wreck It Ralph (6 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) can finish with 8 Trifectas and 37 Correct Picks. He then needs 1) Bookie to get no more than 1 Correct Pick in the final two Weeks; The Strategist to get no more than 1 Trifecta and 3 Correct Picks; Big Tuna to get no more than 1 Trifecta and 5 Correct Picks; and Jimmy V to get no more than 1 Trifecta. If Wreck It Ralph adds only 1 Trifecta in the final two Weeks, he is eliminated from the Win.

For Place or Show…

Bookie is in contention for Place or Show no matter the results in Week 17. All other Analysts above remain in contention for Place or Show with a Trifecta in Week 17. Analysts with 5 or more Trifectas entering Week 17 can still Place or Show with a Trifecta AND either The Strategist or Big Tuna busts (remains at 7 Trifectas).

For the Claim…

Woody at 4 Trifectas and 30 Correct Picks is the current cut for a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX (13th place). She can finish the season at 6 Trifectas and 36 Correct Picks (the current 4th best record!): so that is the current minimum to be certain of retaining a Claim to a Home Team during the playoffs. But, all Analysts below 6 Trifectas would have to end the season with 2 Trifectas for that to happen!

So, if Woody gets 1 Trifecta in the final two Legs, the target to secure a Claim will more likely be 5 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks for the back of the field. Ten Analysts have 3 to 5 Trifectas after Week 16 and can reach that mark. In any case (for example, all Analysts bust in Week 17), to remain in contention for a Claim in Week 18, Analysts need to be within 1 Trifecta and 3 Correct Picks of the Analyst in 13th place after Week 17!

The only Analyst with no hope of a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX based on Analyst of the Year IX results is Atwork.

Share This:

Scenarios | Analyst of the Year IX | Week 16

Super Trifecta Bowl Claims

We have not made enough noise about the STB Claims order, but it is the reverse of the Home Team Releases and Claims mid-season:

The top twelve Analysts from the regular season will have a Claim for ownership in this order: 1) Analyst of the Year, 2) Seeder’s Cup Winner, 3) Fibonacci Stakes Winner, 4) Player Haters Winner, 5) PC-Fecta Derby Winner, 6) Place in the Analyst of the Year, 7) Show in the Analyst of the Year, and 8) from 4th-12th position in the Analyst of the Year until twelve teams in total are Claimed by Analysts. When an Analyst has two or more Claims, the highest Claim is granted.

https://www.roi2partners.com/wftl/superfecta-bowl/

A Crown Win secures a Claim. Unfortunately, the leaders of the AoY are also Winners of the first three Crowns. So, the only way for other Analysts to secure a Claim for STB IX is to Win The Seeders’ Cup! And, nobody with 4 or fewer Trifectas is safe at the moment. If two or more Analysts with 2 to 4 Trifectas go on a run, the mid-field could suddenly find themselves eating dust — and that prognostication includes several Analysts with 5 Trifectas if they do not add to their Trifecta totals!

Scenarios

To be in contention in Week 17, an Analyst has to be within 2 Trifectas of the leader after Week 16. Thus….

For the Win…

With a Trifecta in Week 16, Bookie (7 and 33 Correct Picks) can eliminate for the Win every Analyst with 4 Trifectas and any Analyst with 5 Trifectas who does not add a 6th Trifecta. If, however, Bookie busts, then every Analyst with 4 Trifectas can remain in contention for the Win at least one more week — if they earn a Trifecta!

Analysts’ current number of Correct Picks indicates the strength of surpassing Bookie. Even if The Strategist (30 Correct Picks) or Big Tuna (28 Correct Picks) ties Bookie on Trifectas in Week 18, Bookie will have to have had at least one week with zero Correct Picks to make up the difference. The challengers’ best bets are to surpass Bookie on Trifectas.

Unusually, for the Analysts with 5 Trifectas currently, Roxy Trot (33 Correct Picks), Mo Money (32 Correct Picks), or Sponge Mom (31 Correct Picks) can close out the season (Week 18) in a tie for the lead at 7 or 8 Trifectas and Win. The strength of their tiebreakers (Correct Picks) can elevate them over Bookie, The Strategist and Big Tuna in a tie. The leaders need 9 Trifectas to outright eliminate these three challengers.

Jimmy V (30 Correct Picks) and Wreck It Ralph (28 Correct Picks) need help…Both Analysts have to overcome the Correct Pick differential as well as the Trifecta differential, so both Analysts need those mentioned above to founder in the home stretch.

For Place or Show…

Analysts with 3 or more Trifectas entering Week 16 can Place or Show, but the season minimum for the Winner’s Circle is 6 Trifectas (The Strategist and Big Tuna) at the moment.

For the Claim…

Bug Bug at 4 Trifectas and 25 Correct Picks is the current cut for a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX. She is on a roll with three straight Trifectas and a fourth in Week 16 will likely elevate her over one of the other Analysts with 4 Trifectas.

For the back half of the field at 4 or fewer Trifectas, the target is 5 Trifectas — and some help. Fourteen Analysts have 5 or fewer Trifectas after Week 15. So, even those in contention for the Win in Week 16 could suddenly find themselves among the five worst Analysts of the Year if they earn no Trifectas in the final three weeks!

The only Analyst with no hope of a Claim in Super Trifecta Bowl IX is Atwork. At 0 Trifectas on the season, the best he can do is tie B-Reezy in fourteenth place at 3 Trifectas.

Share This:

Scenarios | The Seeders’ Cup VIII | Leg 4

The Seeders’ Cup VIII | Standings | Leg 3

The Seeders' Cup VIII | Standings | Leg 3
Standings after Leg 3 of The Seeders’ Cup VIII

Sponge Mom (32 points) has a four point lead over her closest competitor — more than a *lame* Trifecta or division title (each 3 points). Wise Orangutan (28 points) and B-Reezy (27 points) round out the leader board, but over half of the field is within 12 points of the current leader.

All Analysts are eligible for the *bonus* points awarded to teams that clinch better playoff seeding. The leaders then have the advantage of Boxing Out the Analysts who trail them. Fortunately, there are literally hundreds of permutations for Pick Threes worth 17 or more points!

Playoff-Clinching Scenarios

The Clearinghouse encourages each Analyst to review the Week 18 playoff-clinching Scenarios for themselves, here: https://www.nfl.com/news/playoff-clinching-scenarios-for-week-18-of-2021-nfl-season. Briefly, the Seeder *bonus* points up for grabs in Leg 4 of The Seeders’ Cup are (listed in order of control of own destiny, meaning the first team listed is “Win and In” — see nfl.com Scenarios):

#1 Seed in the AFC (+7 points)

Pick one of Titans, Chiefs, Bengals, or Patriots

AFC East Division Title (+3 points)

Pick Bills or Patriots

NFC West Division Title (+3 points)

Pick Rams or Cardinals

NFC Wildcard (+1 point)

Pick 49ers control their own destiny over Saints (not a Pick option)

AFC Wildcard (+1 points)

Pick Colts, Steelers, or Ravens

The maximum points are 19 for a *base* Trifecta that Correctly Picks the #1 Seed in the AFC, the AFC East Division Winner, and the NFC West Division Winner — UNLESS the Patriots take the #1 Seed in the AFC then the maximum is 17 points. Other combinations will yield less, but still may be enough to surpass the current leaders.

Share This:

Scenarios | Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Leg 5

Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Standings | Leg 4

Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Standings | Leg 4
Standings after Leg 4 of Fibonacci Stakes VIII

Headed into the home stretch (Leg 5), Big Tuna holds a 6 point lead over his nearest competitor — more than 5-point Fibonacci Bonus Pick in Leg 5. This means his challengers will have to earn at least one more Fibonacci Bonus and/or better Trifecta (base or lame) than he does.

Leg 4 Picks

Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Picks | Leg 4
Fibonacci Stakes VIII | Picks | Leg 4

Scenarios

Big Tuna (1st Place; 27 points): The Eagles are on a Bye in Leg 5, so Big Tuna must change at least one Pick. His maximum score is *base* Trifecta (6) plus two Fibonacci Bonus Picks (10) for 16 points. No other Analyst can reach 43 points. If Big Tuna gets a lame Trifecta with two Fibonacci Bonus Pick, he still adds 13 points total. If Big Tuna gets a lame Trifecta with one Fibonacci Bonus Pick, he gains 8 points to reach 35 points total.

While Big Tuna can wipe out (0 points) down the home stretch, the Scenarios consider his “average” outcome (8 points) because many Analyst also have his other Fibonacci Bonus Picks (Rams and Buccaneers).

Woody (2nd Place; 21 points): Woody had the Bills and Buccaneers in Leg 4 — two teams that play each other in Leg 5. She has the luxury of Picking the winner of the Bills/Bucs game for Fibonacci Bonus Points, but Woody also can add only16 points total with a *base* Trifecta and two Fibonacci Bonus Picks. That is enough to Win if Big Tuna scores 8 points or less and those who trail her do not surpass her total.

Mo Money (3rd place; 20 points): Mo Money can perform the full Fibonacci for 21 points. That is enough to beat Big Tuna with a *lame* Trifecta (max = 40 points) and Woody with a 16-point Trifecta (max = 37 points). If she switches Picks (to maintain AoY strategy), then her gambit will require Big Tuna and Woody to falter and those trailing her not to perform a full Fibonacci.

KateTDid (4th Place; 18 points): KateTDid requires a full Fibonacci (21 points) to exceed 37 points (more than Big Tuna’s projected 8-point outcome) and Woody’s maximum outcome. Mo Money can outrace her to the finish line if Rams Win.

Jimmy V (5th Place; 18 points): Jimmy V is Boxed Out by Mo Money, which mean he can Place at best if he holds the same three teams. If he changes one Pick strategically, he can reach 34 points. Whether that is enough to Win depends on which three teams he holds and how other Analysts’ Picks prove true!

Roxy Trot (6th Place; 17 points) and Bookie (7th Place; 17 points): Both Analysts have the Bills and Buccaneers (playing each other in Leg 5). Both must change at least one Pick and at most can earn 16 points for 33 Trifecta Points total. To Win, they will have to choose wisely between Bills and Buccaneers, and then find a third Pick to complete a 16-point Trifecta. Both need to examine the Analysts ahead of them to find the proper third Pick to come from behind.

All Other Analysts: Are in the back half of the field and trailing Big Tuna by at least 12 points. The full Fibonacci (if possible) is their best hope, but most are partially Boxed Out by other Analysts ahead of them. Atwork is in the best position since he has three unique Picks including Cowboys and Seahawks (nobody else has these two teams). The other Analysts will have to spend the night at the computer running predictive models to find their best hope for the Win!

Share This:

Scenarios | Player Haters Preakness VIII | Leg 5

Player Haters Preakness VIII | Standings | Leg 4

Player Haters Preakness VIII | Standings | Leg 4
Standings after Leg 4 of Player Haters Preakness VIII

Headed into the final Leg (5), we have a four way tie at 24 points as well as six more Analysts with 18 to 21 points. That means we have far too many possible outcomes to consider in a comprehensive scenario.

Assuming that at least one leading Analyst reaches 27 to 30 points (+1 *lame* or *base* Trifecta), what follows are brief statements on the relative strength of Tiebreakers for each Analyst vis-a-vis the current leader (Mo Money). See the Tiebreakers grid at the bottom of the post to verify Analyst strength of Tiebreakers.

Scenarios

Mo Money (1st place; 24 points): She leads with 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.0 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Atwork* and B-Reezy. Her Buccaneers are on a bye in Leg 5, however, so she cannot improve her advantage. If she reaches 30 Trifecta points, she will remain at 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.0 forced turnovers per game — which we treat as the bar for others to Win on Tiebreakers.

Roxy Trot (2nd Place; 24 points): She controls second place with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over KateTDid, but loses to Little Tuna in a two-way tie on first Tiebreaker. Her Bills play this week so she can reach 3 Correct Home Team Picks to tie Mo Money. She also will need 2 forced turnovers to Win, or 1 forced turnover to Tie Mo Money for first place.

Jimmy V (3rd Place; 24 points): He holds third place with 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 1.3 forced turnovers per game. He also has a first Tiebreaker over Woody, but loses to Big Tuna on first Tiebreaker. His Cardinals play this week so he can reach 3 Correct Home Team Picks, but he will need 5 forced turnovers in order to reach Mo Money’s 2.0 per game, and possibly more turnovers to reach Roxy Trot’s or Little Tuna’s forced turnovers per game.

Little Tuna (4th Place; 24 points): She holds fourth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Roxy Trot and KateTDid. Her Titans play this week so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. She will lose in a tie with Mo Money (second Tiebreaker), win in a tie with Roxy Trot (first tiebreaker) and likely win in a tie with Jimmy V unless he Correctly Picks his Cardinals to Win this week. And, see Sponge Mom below.

Craft Brew (5th Place; 21 points): He is in sole possession of fifth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 1.3 forced turnovers per game. He reaches 27 with a *base* Trifecta without Player Hater Picks (+6), or 33 points with 2 Player Haters Picks (+12). In a tie at 27 points, he will lose to Mo Money (3 Correct Home Team Picks). He also is at a disadvantage to Roxy Trot and Jimmy V (2 Correct Home Team Picks before Leg 5) and to Little Tuna on forced turnovers per game (2.3 before Leg 5). Correct Picks and forced turnovers in Leg 5 will determine his outcome in a tie.

Sponge Mom (6th Place, 18 points): She holds sixth place with 4 Correct Home Team Picks and 2.3 forced turnovers per game. She also has first Tiebreaker over Bookie and faces Little Tuna in Leg 5. No Analyst can equal her current Correct Home Team Picks, so she holds the tiebreakers over all Analysts except Little Tuna (pending outcome of Titans-Rams game). In order to reach 30 points, however, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points. She could aim for 24 points (1 or 0 Player Hater Picks) and hope that no other Analyst scores more than 24 points.

KateTDid (7th Place; 18 points): She is in seventh place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 1.0 forced turnovers per game. She has first Tiebreaker over The Strategist, but loses on first Tiebreaker to Roxy Trot and Little Tuna. Her Chiefs play this week, so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. In order to reach 30 points, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points, however, she is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to most Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory. Also, see Big Tuna below.

Woody (8th Place; 18 points): She is in eighth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 0.5 forced turnovers per game. She loses on first Tiebreaker to Jimmy V. Her Browns play this week, so she can reach 2 Correct Home Team Picks. In order to reach 30 points, she needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points, however, she also is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to most Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.

The Strategist (9th Place; 18 points): She is in ninth place with 0 Correct Home Team Picks and 1.8 forced turnovers per game. She loses on first Tiebreaker to KateTDid and Big Tuna. Her Football Team is on a bye, so her Tiebreakers are locked in. She needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points to reach 30 total, but she is currently disadvantaged on Tiebreakers to all Analysts ahead of her (note: she can Place if only two Analysts reach 30 points). A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.

B-Reezy (10th Place; 18 points): He is in tenth place with 0 Correct Home Team Picks and 0.5 forced turnovers per game. He loses on first Tiebreaker to Mo Money and Big Tuna. His Bears play this week, but he is not able to improve his Tiebreakers well enough to challenge the current leaders. He needs two Correct Player Hater Picks for 12 points to reach 30 total, and the rest of the field to fail to reach 30 points. A Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) is a clearer, if riskier, path to Victory.

Big Tuna and all Other Analysts (less than 18 points): Each needs a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18 points) to have a chance at the Win. Wise O. and Atwork can reach 33 points for the Win, while Big Tuna can reach 30 points and exercise his first Tiebreakers over B-Reezy, The Strategist, Jimmy V, and KateTDid (TBD, Leg 5 game) in the event of a tie at 30 points. Bookie can reach 24 points at most and cannot Win on Tiebreakers (Seahawks on a bye week).

Tiebreakers

Player Haters Preakness VIII | Tiebreakers | Leg 4
Tiebreakers after Leg 4 of Player Haters Preakness VIII

* Mo Money’s first Tiebreaker (head-to-head) in Leg 2 / Week 2 is over Atwork, not The Strategist.

Share This:

Scenarios | Player Haters Preakness VIII | Leg 3

Current Standings | Player Haters Preakness VIII

Player Haters Preakness VIII | Standings | Leg 3
Standings after Leg 3 of Player Haters Preakness VIII

Little Tuna, the Defending Champion, leads headed into Leg 4. So far, among the five Analyst on the the leaderboard, we have two Player Haters who have earned *bonus* points (Little Tuna and Roxy Trot) and three Streakers who have earned only *base* points (Craft Brew, Jimmy V, and Mo Money) in the first three Legs.

The maximum *base* points over five Legs is 30 points. If the streakers close out, the Haters and the rest of the field will need Player Hater *bonus* points to close the distance or to reach 31+ points.

Scenario

The most an Analyst may earn in a single week is 18 points with a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (3 non-Home Teams Win). To be in contention for the Win in Leg 5, an Analyst must be within 18 points after Leg 4.

Little Tuna is the only Analyst who can eliminate all other Analysts, but if and only if she earns a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (+18) and the other Analysts earn no points!

The Analysts with 12 or fewer points face elimination if any of the Analysts at 18 points or more reach 30+ points (tiebreakers will likely favor the leaders). In the near turn (Leg 4), however, not even Bookie is eliminated! She can still finish with 36 points if her Perfect Player Hater strategy pays off in the final two Legs!

Share This: