Season IX appears to have emerged from the cloud of uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. No special rules for canceled games or convalescing Home Teams are enacted. There are however established procedures for Picks. We will remind the Analysts of the Picks procedures in a later post.
Season IX | Starting Home Team Claims
We are up to a whopping 17 Analysts in Seasons IX!
A reminder that the order of the Standings during Season IX reflects the final rankings for Analyst of the Year VIII for the fourteen returning Analysts.
Boo, Bug Bug, and Wreck It Ralph are first-time entrants
The General Rules for the World Football Trifecta League remain the same as Season VIII. Analysts must relinquish Claims to Home Teams to start the season and the Analysts Claim new Home Teams in reverse of the Standings for the prior season’s Analyst of the Year. New Analysts select first as determined by random order.
No Analysts went to pasture and three new Analysts join the WFTL for 2022-23 season. The Claims Order for the 17 Analysts is then:
New Analyst (TBD)
New Analyst (TBD)
New Analyst (TBD)
Atwork
Bookie
Wise Orangutan
KateTDid
Big Tuna or The Strategist
Big Tuna or The Strategist
Little Tuna
Craft Brew
B-Reezy
Woody
Roxy Trot
Mo Money
Sponge Mom
Jimmy V
Key Dates for Season IX:
August 26-28 – Seventeen Analysts gather at the Second Annual WFTL Claims Party to select Home Teams! September 9 – First game of Season IX. September 23 – Purse filings due to the league bookie.
Improved Season IX Rules
None.
Riders Up!
The PC-Fecta Derby kicks off the new season. There is no revision to the rules from Season IX. Review the rules and points system for the PC-Fecta Derby here.
Which Analyst will add his or her Thoroughbred’s name to the most illustrious trophy in sports analysis at the end of the year?
The General Rules for the World Football Trifecta League have been updated such that Analysts must relinquish Claims to Home Teams to start the season and the Analysts Claim new Home Teams in reverse of the Standings for the prior season’s Analyst of the Year.
No Analysts went to pasture and one new Analyst joined the WFTL for 2021-22. The Claims Order for the 14 Analysts was then:
New Analyst (Mo’ Money)
KateTDid
Sponge Mom
The Bookie
Roxy Trot
Little Tuna
B-Reezy
Big Tuna
Woody
Atwork
Jimmy V
The Strategist
Craft Brew
Wise Orangutan
Key Dates for Season VIII:
August 21 – Twelve of fourteen Analysts met at the First Annual WFTL Claims Party to select Home Teams! (Claim Results forthcoming.) September 9 – First game of Season VIII. September 23 – Purse due to the league bookie.
Improved Season VIII Rules
1) To start the new Season, Analysts must relinquish Claims to Home Teams from the prior season. New Claims will be made in reverse order of the Standings for the prior season’s Analyst of the Year.
2) With the expanded regular season to 17 games, Analysts voted to add a fifth leg to the Player Haters Preakness.
3) For the Super Trifecta Bowl, in the final leg, Analysts will earn +3/+3 bonuses for the best offense/defense score predictions with a Correct Pick in the TGWSNBN.
4) The Analysts determined that NO new rules for the COVID-19 crisis will be adopted. If games are canceled after Picks are in or if a Home Team is sent to pasture due to an outbreak, the Analysts will have no recourse other than what is provided in the Standard Rules.
Riders Up!
The PC-Fecta Derby kicks off the new season. There is no revision to the rules from Season VIII. Review the rules and points system for the PC-Fecta Derby here.
Which Analyst will add his or her Thoroughbred’s name to the most illustrious trophy in sports analysis at the end of the year?
In a new Rule, we required all Analysts to release Claims from the prior season and select new Claims in order of their Analyst of the Year finish from the prior season. The Claims Order (with Wins noted) was:
Little Tuna (Player Haters Preakness)
KateTDid
Wise Orangutan (Analyst of the Year)
The Strategist
Woody (The Seeders’ Cup)
Big Tuna (Super Trifecta Bowl)
The Bookie
Sponge Mom
Roxy Trot
B-Reezy
Craft Brew (Fibonacci Stakes)
Jimmy V
Atwork (PC-Fecta Derby)
The Analysts in italics Placed in at least one Crown Race or Trophy Race this year (three Analysts both Placed and Won). Overall, 8 of 13 Analysts collected Purse this year, including the first 6 in Claims Order. The new Rules for Claims Order seemed to have the desired outcome. Analysts with the fewest Trifectas last year had better showings (Purse-wise) this year.
We propose to incorporate this Rule or a variant of this Rule to start every season, in perpetuity.
Analyst with No Claim
The Analyst(s) with No Claim was introduced in Season V. In Season VI, the Super Trifecta Ex-Claimation! points were added to give the Analyst with No Claim an additional method to earn Super Trifecta Points (equivalent to Playoff Victory points). In Season VII, the Rules were revised to allow Claims for 12 of 14 postseason teams. In the past two seasons, two Analysts with No Claim have taken home Purse since the introduction of new Rules.
We have no plans to change this Rule.
Preliminary 2021-22 Rules Review
The one additional Analyst-initiated change to the Rules occurred in the Super Trifecta Bowl. We could add +3/+3 bonuses for the best offense/defense score predictions for Correct Picks in the TGWSNBN. If we had adopted this Rule in Season VII, it would have given the finalists an additional method to score points whether or not they had a Claim to a Home Team in TGWSNBN.
We will open Season VIII with a discussion of the merits of adding an additional *bonus* point system that will make the outcome of the Super Trifecta Bowl more volatile during the final game of the postseason.
The General Rules for the World Football Trifecta League have been updated such that Analysts must relinquish Claims to Home Teams to start the season and the Analysts Claim new Home Teams in reverse of the Standings for the prior season’s Analyst of the Year. Every third year, Claims Order is determined by a random drawing.
No Analysts went to pasture and no new Analysts joined the WFTL. The Claims Order for the 13 returning Analysts is then:
Little Tuna
KateTDid
Wise Orangutan
The Strategist
Woody
Big Tuna
The Bookie
Sponge Mom
Roxy Trot
B-Reezy
Craft Brew
Jimmy V
Atwork
Key Dates for Season VII:
September 6 – Select Home Teams. September 20 – Send The Bookie your share of the Purse for the year.
Improved Season VII Rules
1) To start the new Season, Analysts must relinquish Claims to Home Teams from the prior season. New Claims will be made in reverse order of the Standings for the prior season’s Analyst of the Year. Every third year, the Claims Order will be determined by random drawing.
2) With the expanded playoff field to 14 teams in the professional football league, all but the last Analyst in the Claims Order will have a Claim for the Super Trifecta Bowl. This means 12 of 13 Analysts will have a Claim to one of the 14 playoff teams, while the Analyst with No Claim will have 2 playoff Teams to play the spoiler.
3) The Analysts determined that NO new rules for the COVID-19 crisis will be adopted. If games are canceled after Picks are in or if a Home Team is sent to pasture due to an outbreak, the Analysts will have no recourse other than what is provided in the Standard Rules.
Riders Up!
The PC-Fecta Derby kicks off the new season. There is no revision to the rules from Season VI. Review the rules and points system for the PC-Fecta Derby here.
Which Analyst will add his or her Thoroughbred’s name to the most illustrious trophy in sports analysis at the end of the year?
Usually we do a Rules Review to start the season, but The Clearinghouse wanted to share some thoughts (as its alter ego) and to start an open channel for Rules Revisions for Season VII since it came up in Snapchat last week. We had three revisions adopted to start Season VI:
1) Every three years (3rd season, 6th season, etc., forward), all Analysts must release their Home Teams and The Clearinghouse will conduct a lottery to determine the order of Claims for Home Teams for the upcoming season.
2) In a single Leg of a Quaternary Crown Race, three Correct Picks will be a “base Trifecta” worth 6 points, while two Correct Picks (out of three) will be a “lame Trifecta” worth 3 points. “Bonus Trifecta” points for base and lame Trifectas will be awarded per Track Rules of the Crown Races.
3) Analysts are required to have a Snapchat account name on record with The Bookie.
Rules Review| WFTL 2019-20 |Season VI in Hindsight (by Wise Orangutan)
WFTL adopted a new system of Claims to start the season (#1), a new system of scoring (#2), and a new system of communicating on game days (#3). In reverse order, Wise Orangutan thinks…
#3 | Thanks to the new WFTL Director of Communications, Woody, revision #3 went like a charm.
We think every Analyst chatted a snap during the season (Note: B-Reezy may have avoided his duties, but Atwork took time off to join the fray at least once!). We communicated on holidays, kicked up our feet, photo’ed game day food porn, etc., etc. We also discovered that it is possible to have a video meeting with all Analysts present for future Rules Reviews!
#2 | Any season in which Wise Orangutan wins is a good season for the Rules!
All kidding aside (except to the Crimson Tide that has taken my money during the first five seasons!)…After Super Trifecta Bowl VI we will have had 5 different Analysts win one of the 6 Races and 8 or 9 different Analysts take home Purse from 12 opportunities. That is at least 60% of the 13 Analysts (and at least one of us had to lose Purse).
There is skill in the contest: Big Tuna finished in the top half of the Analyst of the Year in the first five seasons. He did not in Season VI (missing by only 2 Correct Picks!), so that now sets a record that can be broken. Only B-Reezy (four years in a row) can tie him next year and Craft Brew follows (three years in a row — in the Winner’s Circle no less, a record he can extend next season!). On the other hand, several Analysts have up-or-down years. Four Analysts now have gone from worst to first in the Analyst of the Year (Little Tuna, B-Reezy, The Strategist, and Atwork). When these Analysts are in the zone, they are unstoppable: Little Tuna holds the record for most Wins (7) and The Strategist has the most entries (15) in The Winner’s Circle. Lastly, The Bookie has a 50/50 chance to become a three-time winner of the Super Trifecta Bowl on Sunday — or, if not, Sponge Mom becomes the fifth Analyst in six seasons to etch her name into the most illustrious trophy in sports analysis!
We also had new records set, including three straight Trifectas to start the season by several Analysts. Jimmy V had a tremendous run mid-season to tie Kal Krome‘s record of 4 straight Trifectas. And his string of 7 Trifectas in 8 Weeks will not be broken until an Analyst gets 8 Trifectas in 9 Weeks in a single season! Atwork‘s Analyst of the Year records for 10 Trifectas and 41 Correct Picks (solo record holder) seems to me impossible to break . Then again, Jimmy V set the record for 10 Trifectas first and was only 3 seconds from hitting his 11th in Week 15 before Atlanta defeated San Francisco. In addition, Craft Brew tied the former record of 9 Trifectas held by The Strategist and had the second-most Correct Picks (40) ever — but that was only good enough to Show!
Plus, after B-Reezy created the strategy that focuses on Pick Threes for the Analyst of the Year (a strategy that The Strategist and Jimmy V have adopted with success), Analysts have the choice to focus on the individual Crowns or the Marathon of the Ass. I (Wise O.) am satisfied that there is a good mix of streakiness (not luck because that would be gambling…) and consistency to make each race competitive based on the strategies and prescience of the Analysts. For all these reasons, I am not inclined to alter the Crowns’ point system again or revert to the all-or-nothing Trifecta system from the first five seasons.
#3 | How to start the season in order to maintain parity is still the open question.
The random drawing helped Roxy Trot start strong (3 Trifectas in a row) and take home some Purse, but the Patriots late-season swoon was unfortunate for her. With the first Claim, KateTDid was distracted by the shiny bauble: Duh Bears! (to be fair, they were a good pick to make the playoffs at the start of the season, but only B-Reezy has ever figured out how to ride that steed). Atwork, from the twelfth starting position (Claim), rode the Packers to become Analyst of the Year in Season VI. Nobody had the Ravens or the 49ers to start the season. The Home Team Release and Claims rule still had a purpose mid-season, helping Wise O., The Strategist, and Sponge Mom remain competitive in an otherwise challenging season. On the other hand, when KateTDid tired of her shiny bauble, Woody could not resist the opportunity to claim it as her own mid-season…
Woody will be happy to know she gets to keep the Chicago Fetish to start Season VII! Because…The Rules we adopted specify that the random drawing to start the season happens only once every three years. We now revert back to the original rules in which Analysts have a Claim to the Home Team they held in Week 17 of previous regular season. Each Analyst gets to decide whether to release his or her Claim, and then the new Claims order goes in reverse order of Analyst of the Year standings (worst to first like the professional football league’s draft). New Analysts have the first Claims determined by random drawing.
The Claims rule (#3) will again be up for Rules Review next year, so this is not the final word. If any Analyst wants to suggest new tweaks, revisions, or an entirely new system of Claims to start the season — or any Rule — go ahead and give us ideas in email (Snapchats go poof) so that we have a record of the revisions requested to start Season VII. The Bookie accepts suggestions for “anonymous” group shares if you prefer.
The General Rules for the World Football Trifecta League have been updated to include a random drawing for Claims Order to start every third season. To start the sixth season, all returning Analysts must relinquish their Home Teams.
The Order of Claims will be determined by a random number generation. All eleven Analysts from Season V are returning. Two new sports fillies have joined for Season VI for a total of 13 Analysts. Each Analyst has been assigned a Claims lottery number per the Final Results for the Analyst of the Year in Season V (returning Analysts) or in order of entry forms received (new Analysts):
The Strategist
Craft Brew
Big Tuna
Roxy Trot
Jimmy V*
B-Reezy*
Wise Orangutan
Little Tuna
Sponge Mom
The Bookie
Atwork
Woody
KateTDid
*Jimmy V and B-Reezy ended the year in a tie for fifth place. JimmyV has been awarded #5 by virtue of the better performance in the Super Trifecta Bowl. B-Reezy has been assigned #6.
Key Dates for Season VI:
After Preseason Week 1 (August 14) – New rules review and adoption. After Preseason Week 2 (August 21) – Claims order determined. After Preseason Week 3 (August 28) – Select Home Teams. After Preseason Week 4 (September 4) – Send The Bookie your share of the Purse for the year.
Improved Season VI Rules
1) Every three years (3rd season, 6th season, etc., forward), all Analysts must release their Home Teams and The Clearinghouse will conduct a lottery to determine the order of Claims for Home Teams for the upcoming season.
2) In a single Leg of a Quaternary Crown Race, three Correct Picks will be a “base Trifecta” worth 6 points, while two Correct Picks (out of three) will be a “lame Trifecta” worth 3 points. “Bonus Trifecta” points for base and lame Trifectas will be awarded per Track Rules of the Crown Races.
3) Analysts are required to have a Snapchat account name on record with The Bookie.
Riders Up!
The PC-Fecta Derby kicks off the new season. Review the new rules and points system for the PC-Fecta Derby here.
Which Analyst will add his or her Thoroughbred’s name to the most illustrious trophy in sports analysis at the end of the year?
We will not credit re-Picks for the remainder of the season.
Going forward:
Picks have two Rules that Analysts must adhere to: 1) Pick three teams to win from the Slate of Games for the current week, and 2) Do NOT Pick against one’s own Home Team.
Analysts are ultimately responsible for submitting valid Picks in a given week.
The Bookie and The Clearinghouse will continue to seek corrections before the Picks are released to all Analysts.
If an error makes it to the full release to all Analysts, however, the error stands.
A Lengthy Explanation:
We are concerned about the integrity of the game if we allow re-Picks going forward.
We have only had 4 invalid Picks released to all Analysts on game day in 396 total Picks this season — about 1%. Fortunately, all 4 invalid Picks became part of busted Trifectas.
But, re-Picking invites problems for The Clearinghouse.
We have had 4 different Purse winners in the first two Races: Jimmy V, Little Tuna, Big Tuna, and Craft Brew. We also have 4 different leaders in the current Races: The Strategist, Roxy Trot, B-Reezy, and Sponge Mom. The randomness and competitiveness of the outcomes are things we have tracked and found valuable in the past five years.
In the short Races, Picks also require strategy in order to maximize points.
Re-Picks undermine the pure randomness and the strategy for the Races.
After seeing everyone’s Picks, if an Analyst uses a re-Pick opportunity to create Box Outs or to avoid Box Outs in the final stretch of these Races, we will have a contested outcome. We want to avoid that.
We also want to keep it friendly for all Analysts. It was necessary to allow re-Picks early on as new Analysts learned the Rules and league managers adjusted to managing 11 Analysts.
Extending a friendly re-Pick to one Analyst this late in the season, however, is no longer friendly to other Analysts.
For the rest of the season, then, The Clearinghouse will not be crediting re-Picks that are made after the Picks are released to all Analysts.
The Clearinghouse remains surprised by the influence of the Analysts on the outcome of the league.
In the beginning, Big Tuna, aka “PC,” showed the accountants how a “pick three” could be more complicated than simply picking three winners. The PC-Fecta Derby carries his name, but the Player Haters Preakness also comes from his pick strategy in the first race of the first year before the four “Crown” races existed in their current form.
We tried to make the individual Crown races the featured races of the year, but retired-Analyst, Minds Blank, elevated the stature of the Analyst of the Year Award with her superlative trash talking. The trophy races only become more prestigious after Little Tuna — who had the worst regular season of any Analyst in Season I — rode the hated New Englanders to the pinnacle of sports analysis, The Super Trifecta Bowl.
The following season, Little Tuna then showed the rest of the Analysts what it takes to ride a front-running Home Team over the course of the regular season to secure the Analyst of the Year. Her romp last year, we at The Clearinghouse freely admit amongst ourselves, worried us. Although the annual competition came down to the wire with The Strategist and her unpredictable Fishe-rams that only she could predict, after the season concluded, we wondered if the Analysts might game the Rules by riding front-runners out of the gates?
Then along comes B-Reezy to shift the strategy again this year. He has the absolute worst team in our league (if not all of professional football) and, yet, he will likely secure the Analyst of the Year Award by the 15th week of the season, if not next week. Taking a long-stride with little regard for the Crown races, B-Reezy explained in Week 5:
My strategy is different from last year where I made a lot of my picks with my home team. I’m still a number 1 Bears fan but “Straight out, my strategy is, when I feel pretty sure I go for the trifecta. I’m going for the big one, Analysts of the Year Award. I HAVE MY EYE ON THE PRIZE!!! ”
Next year, Analysts will have at least four different and proven strategies available to start the season: Big Tuna’s Crown team sprints, The Strategist’s perennial and inscrutable 8-8 team, Little Tuna’s front-runner team, and now B-Reezy’s steady trot to the finish line in the saddle of an un-bear-able team.
Anyway, this silly little competition remains far more interesting than we anticipated when negotiating terms of service with The Bookie three years ago. Just sayin’….
So, now, The Clearinghouse has another challenge for the Analysts… [more to come]
The Bookie
“If picking three correct teams is too easy we will just figure out a way to make it harder.”
To end the year, Little Tuna (73%) and The Strategist (71%) finished the season with the highest Pick accuracy rates. Big Tuna (65%) was the only other Analyst to finish above the Average Pick Accuracy Rate of 64%.
The average trifecta accuracy rate of the Analysts was 25% for the year. Little Tuna (41%), The Strategist (35%), and The Bookie (29%) beat the average rate. In total, we have four Above-Average-Analysts-of-the-Year!
The Pick Accuracy of Analysts by Race in Season II
In the individual races, it is not all about accuracy. Kal Krome (60%) won the Fibonacci Stakes despite falling below the average accuracy rate for the race (65%). In the Seeders’ Cup, The Strategist had the better pick accuracy (75%) than Little Tuna (67%) and lost nonetheless. Congratulations to the race winners, Little Tuna (3), The Strategist (1), and Kal Krome (1).
What truly matters in football analysis, though, is how our Analysts compare to The Monkey, The Man, and The Machine!
The Monkey
Last year, The Clearinghouse introduced the notion that some of our Analysts may be less accurate than a monkey flinging its poo at the names of three teams each week. Those three teams would have a 50% chance of being correct, on average, and The Monkey could accurately pick a trifecta 12.5% of the time (50% times 50% times 50% equals 12.5%).
In a 17-week competition, the proverbial poo-flinging monkey is expected to pick 2.125 trifectas during the season – the true test of being smarter than a monkey. Six of eight Analysts provide evidence that humankind is more evolved than poo-flinging monkeys!
The Man
Another test for our Analysts’ expertise is the direct comparison with their colleagues who make picks each week (CBS) and in our sports nation (ESPN). At CBS and ESPN, the so-called NFL Expert Picks ranged in accuracy from 59% to 66% (CBS) and from 56% to 64% (ESPN). The ESPN Sports Nation favorite was accurate in 63% of its picks. Thus, our eight Analysts compare favorably to the tele-tubey experts and collectively beat the nation with a 64% accuracy rate.
In a true test of football acumen, however, there is one man in the nation who stands above all other men (and all tele-tubey NFL experts are men) – Mike Ditka. At ESPN, The Oracle of Ditka picked 153 games accurately for a rate of 60% – a lower accuracy rate than all but three of our mixed-gender WFTL Experts during the year!
The Machine
The Clearinghouse has offered the fivethirtyeight.com ELO predictions as a resource to our Analysts during the year. The risk, however, was that The Machine is more accurate than Man or Woman. So, we at the Clearinghouse, tracked ELO predictions for the Analyst of the Year Award – since winning picks and trifectas are the only consideration for the annual competition.
Each week, ELO suggested three teams with the highest probability of winning their respective games, and a trifecta, as seen below.
Best ELO Trifecta Predictions in Season II
As the table above shows, ELO had a rough year, correctly picking 34 games (67%) and accurately predicting only 4 trifectas total (24%). The four trifectas were spread across the four races (one per race). ELO would not have won an individual race or the annual competition by picking the most likely winners. In Week 16, like many of our illustrious Analysts, ELO had zero correct picks.
Overall, with an average 47.8% trifecta probability rate, ELO expected to earn EIGHT trifectas during the year and earned only FOUR. How frustrating for The Machine Overlords!
The Accuracy Rate of ELO Predictions by Race in Season II
The Ribbons
Without further ado:
For prognostications that proved more accurate than ELO predictions in both trifectas and picks, Little Tuna and The Strategist earn Blue-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbons! The Bookie earns a Yellow-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbon for predicting more trifectas than ELO!
Man might not defeat the Machines, but Woman will!
[Round of enthusiastic applause]
Honorable mention for Big Tuna, Wise Orangutan, and Kal Krome for representing Man as nearly the equal of Machine.
[Round of unenthusiastic and uncertain applause]
Five Analysts earn More-Powerful-than-The-Ditka Ribbons: Little Tuna, The Strategist, Big Tuna, The Bookie, and Wise Orangutan.
[A few lonely whistles and catcalls from the Analysts’ Balcony]
Finally, the Go-Buy-a-Monkey Ribbons go to…. Minds Blank and B-Reezy!
[Coughs and murmurs in the audience]
Oh, how the mighty Minds Blank has fallen!
[A gesture from the Analysts’ Balcony]
The prestigious award held by the Analyst of the Year.
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